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1.2 Population Allan Puur, Luule Sakkeus, Tiit Tammaru The concept of development became the focus of population research with the formulation of the demographic transition theory in the middle of the 20 th century. By generalising the changes that had appeared in population processes, Adolphe Landry (1934) and Frank Notestein (1945) arrived at the understanding that an upheaval was occurring in Europe and the overseas countries settled by Europeans, which, in a few generations, would cause a systemic change in the demographic regime that had existed previously. In the course of this upheaval, the traditional pattern of population replacement, which was characterised by short life expectancy and high fertility, would be replaced by a modern pattern, the main attributes of which are long life expectancy and low fertility. In retrospect, this course of developments probably seems obvious but at the time that the demographic transition theory was formulated, it was far from clear whether the events that involved such a small group of countries would really spread throughout the world, regardless of the political and economic structure, cultures, religious beliefs, etc. of the various societies. In the decades following World War II, these doubts were dissipated, and thereafter, the idea of development, according to which the population system will undergo universal and largely similar evolutionary changes, has prevailed in demographic thinking (Lee, Reher 2011). This concept is also the cornerstone for comparing the population development of various countries. Therefore, we are also starting this chapter with Estonia’s position related to this major transformation in the demographic regime. 1.2.1 From the demographic past to the present Table 1.2.1 presents the estimated onset of the demographic transition based on fertility measures. These results were compiled by the Princeton European Fertility Project (1962–1984), which is the most comprehensive investigation of the demographic modernisation of Europe to date (Coale, Watkins 1986). This study also covered the European part of the Russian Empire, which included Estonia before it achieved its independence. Within the framework of the Princeton Project, a special set of demographic measures was developed for dealing with the transition. Its point of reference was the natural fertility of the Hutterites (a religious sect in the U.S. and Canada, similar to the Amish, practicing no birth control) in the 1920s and 1930s (Coale 1973). It should be noted that the start of the demographic transition, presented in the Table 1.2.1 does not refer to estimated beginning of the transition, but rather to the moment when marital fe rtility Table 1.2.1 The onset of the demographic transition based on fertility measures. Estonia and selected countries. Country Year France 1827 Belgium 1881 Switzerland 1887 Estonia 1888 Germany 1888 Latvia 1892 Sweden 1892 England and Wales 1892 Lithuania 1895 The Netherlands 1897 Denmark 1898 Norway 1903 Austria 1907 Hungary 1910 Uruguay 1910 Bulgaria 1912 Finland 1912 Greece 1913 Italy 1913 Ukraine 1916 Portugal 1916 Spain 1920 Ireland 1922 Russia (European part) 1922 Moldova 1927 Belarus 1930 Singapore 1959 South Korea 1962 Costa Rica 1965 Chile 1966 Source: Coale, Watkins (1986); Coale (1992); Caldwell (2006). The countries are ranked according to the year by which their marital fertility had declined by 10% compared to the country-specific pre-transition level. has declined by 10% from the pre-transition plateau. Regardless of the specific level of the pre-transition fertility – in populations with traditional, uncontrolled fertility, the fertility has varied to a marked extent, ranging from an average of three to four children, up to an average of seven to eight children – passing the 10% threshold signalled the irreversibility of the change in the model that would result in a lower fertility rate. 14 Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013
The results of the Princeton Project place Estonia among the forerunners of demographic modernisation. Of all the remaining European countries – except for France, which was the only nation where the manifestations of family planning were clearly evident in the early 19 th century – Estonia belongs to the next group of countries, where the turn toward a modern demographic regime had gained momentum during the 1880s. The early onset of the demographic modernisation in Estonia is also confirmed by other comparative studies that are based on different methodology (Chesnais 1992; Reher 2004). Considering the fact that the actual beginning of the changes preceded the moment when the 10% threshold was exceeded, and also that, of the two major components of population replacement, the reduction in mortality was initiated first, the start of Estonia’s demographic modernisation may have occurred in the 1860s (Katus 1994; 2000). This viewpoint is also supported by the time-series of the crude fertility and mortality rates that, in Estonia’s case, stretch back into the 18 th century (Palli 1997). In Estonia, the rapid and irreversible decline in mortality and fertility, which is characteristic of demographic modernisation, lasted until the 1930s. Similarly to the majority of Northern and Western European countries, and also Latvia and the Czech Republic, during the decade before World War II, Estonia’s fertility fell below the replacement level for the first time. The corresponding moment in time is often considered to be the border that marks the entry into a modern demographic regime. In the remaining Eastern European countries, as well as in Southern Europe, this milestone was generally not reached until the 1970s and 1980s. In the rest of the world, if we disregard the English-speaking countries with populations that originated in Europe, the change in the demographic regime came at a much later period. Based on the criterion of the Princeton European Fertility Project (the reduction of the marital fertility rate by 10%), Japan appears to be the only country where we can speak about the transition to controlled fertility starting before World War II. Most of the Latin America and the Asian countries did not enter the new developmental stage until the 1960s and 1970s. In Africa, the start of fertility transition was postponed until the 1970s to 1990s, making it the last region of the world where this occurred. The timeframe and pattern of change in the demographic regime remains the key to understanding the country’s demographic situation, even if the transition was completed long ago. Thus, the early timing of the transition and modest population growth during the transition, which is characteristic of most forerunners of the transition, has pre-determined a great deal of Estonia’s demographic development since the 1930s. Among other things, it is one of the reasons that Estonians are among the few peoples in Europe whose numbers have not reached pre-war levels. The very different timing of the demographic modernisation is also a reason why it is not possible to draw direct parallels between the current population situations in Estonia and the Asian and South American countries, which are included among the countries used for the comparison in this report. The demographic regime in South Korea, Singapore, Costa Rica and Chile started to change only after World War II, and in the late 1950s and early 1960s, there were still an average of 5.5 to 7.2 births per woman in these countries. The subsequent rapid modernisation reduced fertility to below the replacement level in the South Korea and Singapore in the course of 25 to 30 years, and in Costa Rica and Chile, in the course of 40 to 50 years. In all these countries, the largest generations of all time were born in the last quarter of the 20 th century, which has significantly contributed to their rapid economic and social development. In Estonia, a similar phase of development occurred in the late 19 th and early 20 th century; the achievements of our large generations include the establishment of statehood and success in the War of Independence. 1.2.2 Population development during the post-transition period Besides the timeframe of its demographic modernisation, another significant factor has also affected Estonia’s position in the international comparison – the discontinuity of country’s social and economic development. In Estonia’s case, the beginning of the modern demographic regime coincided with the loss of statehood. The impact that the societal discontinuity and a half century of occupation had on population development appeared extensive, and this legacy is also important for understanding the trends in the period following the restoration of independence and the contemporary situation. In order to cast light on these influences, in the next section of this chapter, the population trends in Estonia and the four major regions of Europe – Northern, Western, Eastern and Southern Europe -- have been compared. In addition to changes in Estonia’s position, this comparative perspective also highlights the transformations in the European populations since the early 1960s. To conserve space, statistical evidence is presented mainly in graphic form, the presentation of numerical data is limited to the most recent time period (Table 1.2.2). The publication date of the report allows us to present the results of the recent round of population censuses, and based thereon, to summarise the population changes in Estonia between 2000 and 2011. A short explanation is also provided of the content of the dimensions used to characterise the population processes. 1.2.3 Fertility and family processes The total fertility rate, which summarises fertility level for the calendar year by means of the number of children, is presented in Figure 1.2.1. The total fertility rate indicates the average number of births per woman, based on the assumption that the age-specific fertility patterns characteristic of the specific calendar year continue throughout the reproductive years of Estonian Human Development Report 2012/2013 15
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Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents 1 Human Capital /
Page 6 and 7: Dear Reader Since the moment when E
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tioning market economies (15 states
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2.2 Freedom and democracy Martin M
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Table 2.2.1 Democracy indicators Po
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Figure 2.2.2 The distribution of th
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would be something that none of the
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political participation are general
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strongest, while a very small perce
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is concerned, Estonia is one of the
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Figure 2.4.2 Average circulation of
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2.5 Corruption Jüri Saar In accord
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Lithuania, 61%; and in Russia, 69%.
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2.6.2 Intentional homicides in Esto
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crime. And thirdly, there was a wis
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References 1. Ahven, A. & Tabur, L.
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states included in the EU Kids Onli
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2.8 Public assessments of the state
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Figure 2.8.4 Changes releated to tr
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of the state’s development are en
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Table 2.9.1 The positions of Estoni
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3. IEP (2011). Structures of Peace.
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3Welfare and the Quality of Life Es
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choices made, not what people say t
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Figure 3.1.5 Public social spending
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tion agreed upon the social contrac
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References 1. Aidukaite, J. (2006).
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hand, to the “inequality of acces
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and explanations of the extent of i
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5- much more than I deserve. Some d
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people in Estonia consider the inco
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Table 3.3.1 Experienced Well-Being
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at about 70%. In Latvia and Lithuan
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sign. It seems that the usual view
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3.4 Quality of life Anu Toots 3.4.1
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a uniform composite indicator has n
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3.4.6 The components of life qualit
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Figure 3.4.4c Perceived quality of
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Figure 3.4.5 Changes in the depriva
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3.5 Environment dimension of well-b
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Figure 3.5.1.b Estonia’s position
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3.5.4 Energy intensity The energy i
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productivity, which is defined as t
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perceive themselves as worse off th
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4The Economy Estonian Human Develop
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vide a valuable connection for maki
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Figure 4.1.3 Components of economic
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ule of law, the sub-indicators for
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References 1. Acemoglu, D.; Robinso
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Development Report employs generali
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and pasture land, and this was capi
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Basing the total and net savings re
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4.3 Labour market Reelika Leetmaa,
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The problems include the very limit
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• Expenditures for active labour
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who lose their jobs. These ensure i
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4.4 Productivity and the economic s
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labour costs at the company level r
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Table 4.4.4 Comparison of the produ
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Figure 4.4.1 Annual average increas
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4.5 Innovation Erik Terk, Katrin M
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Table 4.5.2 Comparison of innovatio
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Table 4.5.4 Comparison of the indic
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in order to make the R&D potential
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It is characteristic of the South K
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mechanisms for increasing their sta
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Globalisation and Policy Patterns 5
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When Estonia regained its independe
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5.2 The impacts of globalisation an
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Table 5.2.2 Support of the differen
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5.3 Development policies Erik Terk,
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• C -the “Estonia-centred” su
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Figure 5.4.1 Support for the possib
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Summary Erik Terk Estonia is part o
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ehavioural patterns. Therefore, it
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Clemens Buche
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EDR 2012/2013 authors Alari Purju i
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Editor-in-Chief: Mati Heidmets Prod
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