Estonian Human Development Report

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4.3. Evaluation on social changes
among Estonian, Latvian and
Lithuanian ethnic majorities and
Russian-speaking minorities
Directed by Prof Richard Rose, regular public opinion surveys
have been conducted in all Europe’s post-Communist
countries since 1991, which include multi-faceted assessments
of the social changes. The respondents have been
asked to provide evaluations of the economic system and
political regime under the former (Soviet-era) and current
systems and the system that will exist in the future, probably
in five years. These studies (the New Baltic Barometer)
have been organized six times in Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania: September–October 1993, April 1995, November
1996, March 2000, October 2001, November–December
2004 (Rose & Maley 1994; Rose 1995, 1997b, 2000,
2002, 2005b).
The surveys show that Estonians have assessed the
changes in society significantly more positively than their
southern neighbours. In 1993, the Estonians gave the new
economic system a lower rating than the Soviet-era system.
In 1995, the assessments of the old and new system
were equal, and since 1996, the new economic system has
been clearly rated more positively than the former system;
the new system received positive evaluations from 70–
80% of Estonians.
Among Latvians, and especially Lithuanians, the
number of people giving the new economic system positive
assessments in 1993–2000 was many times smaller
than the number of those who gave positive assessments to
the Soviet-era economic system. In 2001, the assessment of
Latvians, and in 2004, the assessment of Lithuanians equalized
between the former and new economic systems.
The assessment of the current economic system can at
least partially be explained by economic results – in 1991–
1994, there were great economic difficulties in the Baltic
countries and other transition states; as of 1995 the situation
started to improve. Although the growth of gross
domestic product (GDP) has not been significantly greater
in Estonia than in Latvia or Lithuania, the assessments of
the new economic system were much higher in Estonia.
As of 2004, the Lithuanians’ assessments were comparable
to those of the Estonians. At the same time, the Latvians’
assessments of the new economic system remained quite
modest even in 2004, after several years of successful GDP
growth.
The positive attitude prevailing in Estonia is all the
more surprising since, compared to its southern neighbours,
Estonia has been considered a country that carried
out extreme liberalization, and a representative along
with Poland of the most radical “shock therapy” in all of
Eastern and Central Europe, i.e. rapid and radical market
economy reforms (Aslund 2002, 2007).
This highlights the fact that public opinion assessments
are based not only on the so-called factual situation,
but also on the interpretive schemes that dominate
the society, including the media. Comparing the opinions
and assessments that are popular in Estonia with those of
other post-Communist societies, social scientists point to
the widespread acceptance of the liberal success ideology,
or the so-called post-Communist transition culture, not
only by Estonians but also by local Russian-speaking population.
Transition ideology traditionally interprets the
appreciation of personal and competitive success as a natural
development characteristic of the new age (Kennedy
2002). It is thought that the popularity of understandings
promoting neo-liberalism and individual consumption
among the population has been one of the important factors
in Estonia’s rapid economic success (Feldmann 2007).
The assessment of the new economic system shown in Figure
4.3.1., as well as the significantly lower assessments
for the former system, can be viewed as the widespread
acceptance of success ideology.
The assessments of Estonia as a successful reform country
are also complemented by the Estonians’ most positive
assessment of the new political system (Figure 4.3.2.).
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