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Estonian Human Development Report

Estonian Human Development Report - Eesti Koostöö Kogu

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1.5. Changes in the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong><br />

<strong>Development</strong> Index<br />

Since 1998, the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index has<br />

continually increased, although its ranking has not always<br />

improved, because our index growth has not been as rapid<br />

as other countries belonging to the same group (Figure<br />

1.5.1.).<br />

The life expectancy at birth remains practically<br />

unchanged, while the education index (shown in percentages)<br />

has changed quite a lot. The main reason lies in the<br />

objective increase in the gross enrolment rate. However,<br />

since this index is an approximate assessment, which is<br />

affected by the assessment method and different sizes of<br />

the age groups, the fluctuations may not be objectively<br />

justified. GDP changed the most during the observation<br />

period, and apparently this indicator is the reason for the<br />

relatively large changes in the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong><br />

Index (HDI). The relatively high level at the beginning<br />

of the 1990s was caused by differing calculation rules<br />

and the lower level of all indicators throughout the world;<br />

at that time, Estonia has a higher ranking than at any subsequent<br />

time.<br />

The decline in the middle of the 1990s was related primarily<br />

to a decrease in GDP, while at the same time life expectancy<br />

and the education index were also at a low point.<br />

As far as future development is concerned, one can<br />

assume a small increase for Estonia during the next two<br />

years (in 2007 and 2008 based on increased GDP). However,<br />

in subsequent years, there will probably be a decline<br />

along with a decline in GDP, since life expectancy inevitably<br />

increases very slowly and tends to decline in years of<br />

economic downturn. In the education index, Estonia has<br />

practically no room to improve.<br />

With respect to Estonia, one can say that it has the<br />

greatest difference between the education index and the<br />

life expectancy index in the entire world: <strong>Estonian</strong>s are<br />

relatively well educated, but they are in poor health, resulting<br />

in shorter life spans. It is clear that Estonia’s possible<br />

rise in the human development ranking is unavoidably<br />

related to an improvement in life expectancy, especially<br />

for men. Without this, we can expect a reversal, because<br />

life expectancy at birth in practically all developed countries<br />

is not only considerably higher than in Estonia, but it<br />

is also increasing faster – especially for men.<br />

The reasons for low life expectancy of Estonia’s population<br />

can be sought in our history and in our climate, and<br />

maybe even in our genes, but the example of our northern<br />

neighbours confirms that the state’s consistent policies to<br />

shape lifestyles and to place greater value on healthy lifestyles<br />

can improve this indicator considerably and guarantee<br />

the country a high ranking with respect to human<br />

development.<br />

Figure 1.5.1. Changes in the value and ranking of <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

Rank 34 29 43 68 71 77 54 46 44 42 41 36 38 40 44 42<br />

HDI 0.872 0.876 0.862 0.749 0.776 0.758 0.773 0.801 0.812 0.826 0.833 0.853 0.853 0.858 0.868 0.871<br />

Sources: HDR 1995 – HDR 2008<br />

0,9<br />

0,85<br />

0,8<br />

0,75<br />

0,7<br />

0,65<br />

Figure 1.5.2. Changes in the indicators that are the basis for the Eesti <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index<br />

100<br />

20000<br />

80<br />

15000<br />

60<br />

10000<br />

40<br />

20<br />

5000<br />

0<br />

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

Life expectancy Education index GDP<br />

Sources: HDR 1995 – HDR 2008<br />

0<br />

| 30

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