Estonian Human Development Report
Estonian Human Development Report - Eesti Koostöö Kogu
Estonian Human Development Report - Eesti Koostöö Kogu
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1.5. Changes in the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong><br />
<strong>Development</strong> Index<br />
Since 1998, the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index has<br />
continually increased, although its ranking has not always<br />
improved, because our index growth has not been as rapid<br />
as other countries belonging to the same group (Figure<br />
1.5.1.).<br />
The life expectancy at birth remains practically<br />
unchanged, while the education index (shown in percentages)<br />
has changed quite a lot. The main reason lies in the<br />
objective increase in the gross enrolment rate. However,<br />
since this index is an approximate assessment, which is<br />
affected by the assessment method and different sizes of<br />
the age groups, the fluctuations may not be objectively<br />
justified. GDP changed the most during the observation<br />
period, and apparently this indicator is the reason for the<br />
relatively large changes in the <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong><br />
Index (HDI). The relatively high level at the beginning<br />
of the 1990s was caused by differing calculation rules<br />
and the lower level of all indicators throughout the world;<br />
at that time, Estonia has a higher ranking than at any subsequent<br />
time.<br />
The decline in the middle of the 1990s was related primarily<br />
to a decrease in GDP, while at the same time life expectancy<br />
and the education index were also at a low point.<br />
As far as future development is concerned, one can<br />
assume a small increase for Estonia during the next two<br />
years (in 2007 and 2008 based on increased GDP). However,<br />
in subsequent years, there will probably be a decline<br />
along with a decline in GDP, since life expectancy inevitably<br />
increases very slowly and tends to decline in years of<br />
economic downturn. In the education index, Estonia has<br />
practically no room to improve.<br />
With respect to Estonia, one can say that it has the<br />
greatest difference between the education index and the<br />
life expectancy index in the entire world: <strong>Estonian</strong>s are<br />
relatively well educated, but they are in poor health, resulting<br />
in shorter life spans. It is clear that Estonia’s possible<br />
rise in the human development ranking is unavoidably<br />
related to an improvement in life expectancy, especially<br />
for men. Without this, we can expect a reversal, because<br />
life expectancy at birth in practically all developed countries<br />
is not only considerably higher than in Estonia, but it<br />
is also increasing faster – especially for men.<br />
The reasons for low life expectancy of Estonia’s population<br />
can be sought in our history and in our climate, and<br />
maybe even in our genes, but the example of our northern<br />
neighbours confirms that the state’s consistent policies to<br />
shape lifestyles and to place greater value on healthy lifestyles<br />
can improve this indicator considerably and guarantee<br />
the country a high ranking with respect to human<br />
development.<br />
Figure 1.5.1. Changes in the value and ranking of <strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Rank 34 29 43 68 71 77 54 46 44 42 41 36 38 40 44 42<br />
HDI 0.872 0.876 0.862 0.749 0.776 0.758 0.773 0.801 0.812 0.826 0.833 0.853 0.853 0.858 0.868 0.871<br />
Sources: HDR 1995 – HDR 2008<br />
0,9<br />
0,85<br />
0,8<br />
0,75<br />
0,7<br />
0,65<br />
Figure 1.5.2. Changes in the indicators that are the basis for the Eesti <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Index<br />
100<br />
20000<br />
80<br />
15000<br />
60<br />
10000<br />
40<br />
20<br />
5000<br />
0<br />
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Life expectancy Education index GDP<br />
Sources: HDR 1995 – HDR 2008<br />
0<br />
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