Estonian Human Development Report

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Figure 1.1.3. Life expectancy in countries of high human development. The large diamond denotes Estonia 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: HDR 2007/2008 With respect to life expectancy, Estonia is placed more or less in the middle of the ranking of all the countries being examined, but at the bottom of the countries of high HDI. Sixtyfive countries with high HDI have better life expectancy indices (2005 data) than Estonia’s (Figure 1.1.2.) as well as 24 countries with medium HDI. This means that the life expectancy indicator pushes Estonia downward in the ranking, and by improving this indicator Estonia’s ranking could improve most effectively. On the other hand, Estonia is in a relative good position with respect to the education indicator, being in 19 th place (2005) among all the countries (Figure 1.1.3.). Here, there is little room for improvement, because with respect to the weightiest component (adult literacy) Estonia is at the maximum level and the gross enrolment ratio (0.924) is relatively close to the maximum value. With respect to the living standard index, Estonia is one of the few countries whose ranking corresponds exactly to its HDI ranking. Global dynamics of the Human Development Index Figure 1.1.4. Changes in the Human Development Index in a series of countries (number in front of the name indicated the ranking in 2007/2008) 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: HDR 2007/2008 1 Iceland 3 Australia 5 Ireland 16 United Kingdom 26 Korea (R) 27 Slovenia 29 Portugal 36 Hungary 43 Lithuania 44 ESTONIA 45 Latvia 52 Mexico Although the history of the human development reports only dates back to 1990, the values have also been calculated retroactively and repeatedly been corrected afterwards. As a general trend, the indices generally increase, while decreases in the index values indicate crises or shocks in the country’s development. The crisis in the mid-1990s that struck the Baltic countries is an example of this (Figure 1.1.4.). Some developing countries, like the Republic of Korea, are very rapid risers, while the growth tempo of the “old leaders” is more modest. In the following three sections of this chapter, we will examine the spheres of life related to the three HDI components and their developmental trends in Estonia. References 1. Human Development Reports, http://hdr.undp.org/en/ humandev/ 2. Human Development Indices, http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/ HDI_2008_EN _Tables.pdf 3. Human Development Report 2007/2008, http://hdr.undp.org/ en/media/ HDR_20072008 _EN_Complete.pdf 1.2. Estonia’s demographic development and its sustainability Fertility and mortality trends In the case of Estonia, as a nation of one million, demographic development is of existential importance. In larger nations, the problems related to population development tend to be social in nature, related to the ratio between the working and dependent population (which is important in Estonia as well). In Estonia, however, the ratio between births and deaths is the most important indicator of developmental sustainability. In the case of migration, the top priority for Estonia is not just the integration of immigrants, but whether that the Estonian- | 12
speaking people will remain the majority ethnic group in Estonia. Demographic shock Demographic development is expressed by some important statistical indicators – these include natural population growth, i.e. the difference between births and deaths, the birth rate indicators related thereto, the life expectancy, as well as the net migration, i.e. the difference between immigration and emigration. A sudden demographic shock occurred in all the Central and East European transition countries during the 1990s, which resulted in an abrupt decline in marriages and birth rates, while death rates increased and the life expectancy decreased. This was definitely caused by great changes in the society. On the one hand, this was caused by the inability to cope with the organization of life in a changed society, while on the other hand, it resulted from the expansion of opportunities related to the opening of society, especially the change in the social position of women, which had taken place much earlier in the democratic countries of Europe, and the revaluation of the values related to marriage and the family. In Estonia, the demographic shock in the middle of the 1990s was very intense: marriages decreased more than twofold, from 1990–1994, the decline in the birth rate averaged 10% annually, and in 1994, the life expectancy dropped to the lowest level in the past 35 years. As a result of negative natural growth, the population decreased by almost 0.5% annually in the second half of the 1990s. Net migration was also characterized by a strong negative trend. As a result, the population decreased by more than 12% between the 1989 and 2000 censuses. Despite the very rapid changes at the beginning of the 1990s, it turned out that the demographic shock in Estonia started to recede notably faster than in the majority of other transition countries. To a certain extent changes in family-related attitudes had started to take place in Estonia already a few decades earlier: cohabitation was quite popular at least prior to legal marriage, and society accepted both children born outside of wedlock and to single parents. The lowest point of the shock was reached in 1994, and from then on, the life expectancy has consistently increased. The total fertility rate (which indicates the aver- Figure 1.2.1. Total fertility rates in groups of European countries and Estonia 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1995 1996 1997 Source: Eurostat 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 UK, Ireland, France Nordic countries Benelux Estonia Germany, Austria, Switzerland Mediterranean countries Transition countries (without Estonia) age number of children per woman) started to increase again (with small setbacks) as of 1999. Fertility The increase in the total fertility rate has notably accelerated as of 2004 (Figure 1.2.1.). There are apparently several reasons for this: the improved economic situation and families’ feeling of security regarding the future based thereon, and births postponed from previous years. One can also not underestimate family policy measures, especially parental benefits. It became clear that it was after the implementation of parental benefits a change occurred in the childbearing strategies of households. As of 2004, the probability of making a decision in favour of childbirth exceeded the probability of having an abortion; furthermore, there was a noticeable increase in the number of working women and those with higher educational levels that gave birth (while the rest remained the same). Although there were similar changes in the entire population, these changes among those giving birth significantly exceeded the changes in the general population. Based on various assessments, parental benefits have increased the fertility rate by 5– 10%. To date the impact has been permanent and cumulative by years. However, the total fertility rate in Estonia (which is quite good in the European context) is not sufficient for the sustainable development of the population. What is life expectancy at birth and what affects it? To calculate the life expectancy index, the average life expectancy at birth for the country’s population is used, based on data for the reference year. This indicator characterizes the death rate for the reference year. Figuratively, one could say that a child born in the reference year would live this long on average if the death rate remained exactly the same as it was in the reference year throughout his or her subsequent life span. Of course, this is not actually true, and one can be sure that children born in the reference year are likely to live significantly longer. Compared to other mortality indicators, one must note that life expectancy is significantly affected by the deaths of relatively younger people in the reference year. As a rough estimate, one could say that the death of one 20-year-old man during the reference year reduces life expectancy more than the death of more than five 60-yearold men. Although in Estonia the infant mortality rate is quite low, approaching the European average, this is not sufficient to improve the life expectancy at birth. According to this indicator, Estonia continues to be among the last in the European Union; on average, only 13 |
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Page 5: 4.2. Ethnic differentiations in sat
Page 9: Preface This year, the Estonian Hum
Page 12 and 13: CHAPTER 1 Estonian Human Developmen
Page 16 and 17: Figure 1.2.2. Life expectancy at bi
Page 18 and 19: to reality. The greatest inaccuracy
Page 20 and 21: Figure 1.2.9. Internal migration ev
Page 22 and 23: 12. Marksoo, A. 1992. “Dynamics o
Page 24 and 25: Table 1.3.1. PISA 2006 study result
Page 26 and 27: Table 1.3.2. Number of students in
Page 28 and 29: 1.4. The gross domestic product and
Page 30 and 31: Figure 1.4.3. Estonian GDP (right a
Page 32 and 33: 1.5. Changes in the Estonian Human
Page 34 and 35: 2.2. Health of Estonian residents i
Page 36 and 37: Table 2.2.4. Differences in life ex
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.4.1. Healthy life years of
Page 40 and 41: Figure 2.4.4. Various accidents, tr
Page 42 and 43: 2.5. Lifestyle and behaviour as a s
Page 44 and 45: Figure 2.5.5. Smoking in Estonia in
Page 46 and 47: Figure 2.6.1. Overview of the compo
Page 48 and 49: Table 2.6.2. Use of specialized med
Page 50 and 51: dren. The majority of services are
Page 52 and 53: Figure 2.8.2. How much a health dis
Page 54 and 55: 2.10. Policy recommendations aimed
Page 56 and 57: CHAPTER 3 Quality of life and life
Page 58 and 59: Table 3.2.1. Characteristics of liv
Page 60 and 61: Table 3.2.4. An assessment of the e
Page 62 and 63: Figure 3.2.4. Difference in the job
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Table 3.2.6. Agreement with stateme
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Figure 3.3.1. Satisfaction with lif
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Figure 3.3.4. Percentage of people
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Figure 3.4.1. Types of quality of l
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Figure 3.5.1. Percentage of teenage
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Figure 3.5.4. Percentage of respond
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Arieh A., Conti C., Kutsar D., Nicg
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Figure 3.6.2. Subjective quality of
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Pieper, A. Sixsmith, Care related q
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Figure 3.7.1. The placement of Euro
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Figure 4.2.1. Life satisfaction by
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Table 4.2.1. Factors forming genera
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Annexes Annex 4.2.1. Socio-demograp
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Figure 4.3.1. Changes in the assess
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Figure 4.3.4. Attitudes of the Esto
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olds considered themselves to be pa
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Table 4.4.3. Agreement of the Russi
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Table 4.5.2. The prospects of non-E
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Figure 4.5.4. Certainty of Estonian
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mote equal opportunities. At the (e
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CHAPTER 5 Quality of life in a cons
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Figure 5.2.1. GDP and AIC per capit
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Figure 5.2.3. Distribution of consu
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Figure 5.2.4. Indexes of environmen
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Table 5.3.1. Comparison of countrie
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Figure 5.3.3. Comparison of types o
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Table 5.3.5. Connections between po
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Table 5.4.1. Who and what are the f
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Table 5.4.3. Young people’s asses
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Figure 5.4.6. Time spent on the con
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Table 5.4.6. The perception of prob
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5.6. Summary To briefly summarize t
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Table 6.2.1. Objective and subjecti
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Figure 6.2.4. Relationship between
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Figure 6.2.7. Difference between th
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Figure 6.3.1. GDP, government secto
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Figure 6.3.3. Employed 15-74-year-o
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Figure 6.3.8. Percentage of social
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References 1. Aaviksoo, A., G. Paat
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Figure 6.4.1. Labour market flexibi
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Figure 6.4.3. Creations of jobs ind
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Figure 6.4.5. Public expenditures o
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Figure 6.4.6. Ratio of the particip
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6.5. Cities as development engines
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Table 6.5.2. Existence of developme
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have been underfinanced or are not
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Table 7.1. Factors that favour and
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Table 7.2. Potential economic devel
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Authors Chapter 1 Ene-Margit Tiit,
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Margit Keller (PhD) is a Senior Res
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Special prizes Estonian Human Devel
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Estonian Human Development Report H
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Estonian Human Development Report H
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Estonian Human Development Report T
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Honorable mentions Estonian Human D
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Estonian Human Development Report P
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Estonian Human Development Report A
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Estonian Human Development Report T
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Estonian Human Development Report

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