Assessment of Cooperatives in the Poultry Industry - 2013.pdf - Seda

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2013 Research Report: Addressing the Needs, Opportunities and Challenges of Cooperatives and Collectively Owned Enterprises in the Poultry and Related Industries compounded growth rates of the two sectors. Compounded growth rates from 2001 to 2011 were as follows: Broiler Industry: 38.8% Egg Industry: 33.7% Figure 2-1: Graph illustrating Growth in Poultry Numbers 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Egg Industry Broiler Industry Total Poultry Industry Source: Strydom, 2011 2.3.2. Growth Rate Fluctuations Further to the growth rate itself is the rate of change in growth rates. The change in growth rates indicates whether the growth rate is slowing down or speeding up. For example, in the first graph below a positive growth rate is evident for the entire period, however, when looking at the change in growth rate the number is not always positive (as seen in the second graph below). Figure 2-2: Graph illustrating change in industry growth rates 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Egg Industry Broiler Industry Total Poultry Industry 11 | P a g e U r b a n - E c o n : D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i s t s Source: Strydom, 2011
Broilers in Millions 2013 Research Report: Addressing the Needs, Opportunities and Challenges of Cooperatives and Collectively Owned Enterprises in the Poultry and Related Industries The graph above (Figure 2-2) shows a more indicative picture of the performance over all. It illustrates the changes in growth rates. The negative percentage change seen below indicates periods where the growth rate declined (it was not negative, only decreasing in rate of growth). Due to the positive rate of growth overall, the below (Figure 2-3) gives a clearer picture of periods in which the industry growth slowed down. As can be seen in Figure 2-3, a slowdown has taken place recently between 2010 and 2011. One of the potential causes for the erratic growth rates in the egg industry may be the long turn-around time required to change the number of laying hens in a flow. I will assess the growth in the egg and poultry industry independently below in order to provide a greater understanding of the information behind the growth rates shown above. 2.3.3. Broiler Industry Growth As noted above, the broiler industry experienced higher growth than the egg industry. Trends can be seen over the ten year period. These may be useful in understanding the potential growth in the poultry industry in future, given the business climate in South Africa at present. Figure 2-3: Broiler Production from 2001 to 2011 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Broilers Produced Broiler Chicks Placed Source: Strydom, 2011 The above table shows increased growth rates between 2004 and 2008. This can be attributed to the relatively low input costs and a favourable rand/dollar exchange rate (Strydom, 2011). The slowdown seen from 2008 to 2009 occurred as a result of increasing costs of inputs (such as grain), a stronger Rand and higher numbers of poultry imports. Despite predictions of a decrease in broiler 12 | P a g e U r b a n - E c o n : D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i s t s
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