The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025

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35. “The Military Balance, 2014,” London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2014. 36. David Shlapak, “Equipping the PLAAF: The Long March to Modernity,” Richard P. Hallion, Roger Cliff, and Phillip C. Saunders, eds., The Chinese Air Force Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, Washington, DC: National Defense University, 2012; “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013.” 37. Science of Campaigns, pp. 557-559. 38. Ian M. Easton and L. C. Russell Hsiao, “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Project: Organizational Capacities and Operational Capabilities,” Arlington, VA: Project 2049 Institute, March 11, 2013, p. 14; “China’s Lijian Stealth Drone Set for Maiden Flight: Report,” Want China Times, May 24, 2013. 39. Phillip C. Saunders and Erik Quam, “Future Force Structure of the Chinese Air Force,” Roy Kamphausen and Andrew Scobell, eds., Right-Sizing the People’s Liberation Army, pp. 381. 40. Ibid, pp. 408-410. 41. “Full Text: the Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces.” 42. “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013, Annual Report to Congress,” Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2013, pp. 5, 30-31. 43. Ibid, pp. 38, 42. 44. Ibid. 45. “ 主要战略方向与其他战略方向的辩证关系 ” (“The Dialectical Relationship between the Primary Strategic Direction and Other Strategic Directions”), April 4, 2006, available from www. chinamil.com.cn, accessed March 3, 2014. 264
46. Zhu Hu and Yang Yang, “Destroyer Detachment Party Committee Leads Naval Troops to Work Hard at Modernization,” PLA Daily, July 28, 1995. 47. Xu Jian, “Rethinking China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity,” San Francisco, CA: California Institute of Integral Studies, May 28, 2014, available from www.ciis.org.cn, accessed June 9, 2014. 265
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The Chinese People’s Liberation A
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STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Str
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Alternative Futures for the People
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Relations. The analysis provides an
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Roy Kamphaus
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military officials and potential ri
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centric military to a more balanced
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Then President Xi Jinping gave a ke
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intentions or capabilities, it is p
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should be viewed as occurring in is
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for the last decade, placed greater
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In addition to these external drive
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and orientation of the PLA. Authors
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propensity to use force, as well as
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In Chapter 9, Michael McDevitt exam
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tion. Saunders also contends that C
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the two powers could possibly form
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it becomes also necessary to assess
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CHAPTER 2 WHITHER CHINA? ALTERNATIV
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• Globalization and a liberal glo
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mand, Control, Communications, Comp
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PLA documents make clear that the
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If nothing changes, the most likely
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• The approach Chinese leaders ad
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30 force development may exhibit mo
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approach to relations with its neig
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Drivers Part 3: Non-Drivers. Finall
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Alternative Future 1: A PLA Focused
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 2 1. See, for ex
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16. U.S. Office of the Secretary of
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DOMESTIC, EXTERNAL, AND TECHNOLOGIC
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and proactively ( 积极的 ) get
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down the Qin dynasty in 209 BCE. 4
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Whereas rural taxes were not suppos
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and opening was accompanied—for t
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of people who post highly nationali
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law, and the party itself must act
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In his first term, Hu Jintao was ra
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others that are not as visible. How
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Why did the Soviet Union disintegra
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adopted, the current dynamic suppor
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Chinese politics over the next deca
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18. Joseph Fewsmith, China Since Ti
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CHAPTER 4 PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARM
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PERIPHERAL VS. WIDER REGIONAL CAPAB
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the PLA has begun to place greater
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this new depth would be limited unl
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political and military issues relat
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helicopters and designed primarily
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etween vessels, protests, and riots
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2013 Defense Budget (in billions$)
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By almost any measure, U.S. power r
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military strategy and force posture
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China might also seek, on balance,
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esponsibilities commensurate with i
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Zambia (2012). 30 Riots in Vietnam,
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Two things could increase the relat
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Source: Arms Transfer Database, Sto
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In general, closer strategic relati
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in particular types of skills and s
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it were accompanied by additional U
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military operations could drain res
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spread mistrust between the Japanes
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Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert and Ge
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though impossible to quantify due t
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47. “Indonesia and China Move Clo
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cal innovations, with MMIs further
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ilities”—input and infrastructu
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asic if endemic problems facing the
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pull” type—that is, driven by P
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military-industrial complex and civ
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ity areas: laser technology, space,
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of at least five geostationary and
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ites, propulsion technologies, bio-
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na’s defense industrial base is b
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Tayho), which commenced production
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military systems. As long as the de
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earliest stages of conflict may be
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Ultimately, the PLA hopes to turn i
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7. Andrew Ross, “On Military Inno
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2011, pp. 7-8; and Richard A. Bitzi
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43. Jon Grevatt, “China Outlines
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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE PEOPLE
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The first encompasses the Yellow, E
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China will not be determined by eco
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Chinese government and perhaps comm
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we must make major progress in mode
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Two important challenges confront t
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force or country, or by the threat
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NEO. The Libyan NEO in 2012, when 4
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will decrease for the PLA in the ne
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The South China Sea disputes are mo
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eral advantages in reduced procurem
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and loaded onboard, these missiles
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Future developments are likely to f
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short-duration, high-ntensity regio
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Joffe once said there was no reason
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into coherent, increasingly compete
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9. Border disputes with India remai
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19. Dennis Blasko reminded me about
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32. See, for instance, Glen Mohamme
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considered disparaging to the army.
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culated Weakness,” China’s Near
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66. Nan Li, quoted in John Garnaut,
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This has inspired the Chinese milit
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ing, HADR, and stability operations
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strikes conducted by the PLA, PLAN
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Page 230 and 231: China’s reluctance to get involve
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Page 234 and 235: simultaneously. China currently con
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Page 238 and 239: 5. DoD China Report 2013. 6. “Div
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Page 242 and 243: 48. Andrew N. D. Yang and Colonel M
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Page 246 and 247: in budgeting and force employment t
Page 248 and 249: about an economic slowdown, inhibit
Page 250 and 251: Lastly, the goal of “maintaining
Page 252 and 253: tions due to the diverse missions a
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Page 262 and 263: The long-term transition of the PLA
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Page 266 and 267: The SAF’s experience with road-mo
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Page 270 and 271: 7. Cui Yafeng ( 崔亚峰 ) ed;
Page 272 and 273: 19. “Full Text: the Diversified E
Page 277: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION, WORLD,
Page 280 and 281: power with its neighbors, depending
Page 282 and 283: Finally, when forecasting the respo
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Page 310 and 311: 42. This is not to say there have n
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will be domestic pressure for China
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make further multilateral trade lib
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lomatic means to pursue its interes
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status and prestige at both the reg
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to intervene to resolve civil wars
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primarily on maintaining domestic c
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China to fail, but this suspicion w
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and the importance of domestic and
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Contemporary International Relation
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28. See Mathieu Duchatel, Oliver Br
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CHAPTER 11 IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.-CH
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In 2012, growing Chinese-U.S. compe
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Looking out, few foresee the Obama
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There are forecasts of inevitable c
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The Chinese leadership set forth in
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the past to apply pressure on one a
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dealing with disputes and differenc
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trade is conducted by foreign inves
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not to trust each other. As a resul
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as resisting many aspects of Americ
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cal antipathy regarding China’s C
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2. The growing impact of economic g
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At present and for the foreseeable
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extraordinary pressure on Japan for
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and unwilling to engage in serious
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vor after having successfully conso
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The United States also could be exp
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18. James Przystup, “Japan-China
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ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS RICHARD A. B
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DANIEL GEARIN is a China military c
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engineering and Chinese from the U.
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tionally, she has worked on China p
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ROBERT SUTTER is Professor of Pract
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FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VI
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