The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025

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26. China is starting to do this, but given limited realistic training and space systems, the force is fare from informationalized. See DoD China Report 2013, p. 58. 27. Pollpeter, p. 172. 28. Ibid., pp. 177-179. 29. “China’s Military Rise, The Dragon’s New Teeth, A Rare Look Inside the World’s Biggest Military Expansion,” The Economist, August 9, 2013. 30. M. Taylor Fravel, “China’s Search for Military Power,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 3, 2008, p. 135. 31. David Axe, “China’s Air Power Future Is Visible in These Two Photos,” Medium, January 5, 2014, available from https://medium.com/war-is-boring/645be6841203, accessed on May 30, 2014. 32. For more on trends in PLAAF modernization, see Lee Fuell, “Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commissions,” Department of the Air Force, January 30, 2014, available from www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Lee%20Fuell_ Testimony1.30.14.pdf, accessed on May 30, 2014. 33. Fravel, p. 139. 34. Wendell Minnick, “China’s Future Bomber Requirements Murky,” Defense News, January 31, 2013, available from www. defensenews.com/article/20130131/DEFREG03/301310016/China- 8217-s-Future-Bomber-Requirements-Murky, accessed on May 30, 2014. 35. The following discussion on UAVs in based on author’s correspondence with Ian Easton, a Research Fellow at the Project 2049 Institute and author with L.C. Russell Hsiao of “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Project: Organizational Capacities and Operational Capabilities,” Arlington, VA: Project 2049 Institute, March 11, 2013, available from project2049.net/documents/uav_easton_hsiao.pdf. 230
36. For example, Second Artillery would invest in strategic strike UAVs, GSD in national intelligence collecting UAVs, PLAAF in air defense and land attack UAVs, PLAN for anti-ship UAVs, etc. 37. “Diversified Employment.” 38. Bernard D. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, 2nd Ed., Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010, p. 152. 39. Fravel, p. 135. 40. Sources suggest that the PLAN currently plans on building a total of five. This would allow Beijing to assign one or more to each of its three fleets—North Sea, East Sea, and South Sea. See Ibid. 41. Cole, p. 135. 42. Christopher P. Isajiw, “China’s PLA Marines an Emerging Force,” The Diplomat, October 17, 2013, available from www. thediplomat.com/2013/10/chinas-pla-marines-an-emerging-force/, accessed on May 1, 2014. 43. Jesse L. Karotkin, “Trends in China’s Naval Modernization: U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission Testimony,” January 30, 2014, available from www.uscc.gov/sites/ default/files/Karotkin_Testimony1.30.14.pdf, accessed May 30, 2014. 44. Ibid. 45. For more on the future modernization of the PLAN, see Ibid. 46. Scott J. Henderson, “In the Shadow: Chinese Special Forces Build a 21st-Century Fighting Force,” Foreign Military Studies Office, July-August 2006, p. 30. 47. Dennis J. Blasko, The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century, 2nd Ed., New York: Routledge, 2012, p. 132. 231
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The Chinese People’s Liberation A
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STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Str
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Alternative Futures for the People
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Relations. The analysis provides an
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Roy Kamphaus
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military officials and potential ri
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centric military to a more balanced
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Then President Xi Jinping gave a ke
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intentions or capabilities, it is p
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should be viewed as occurring in is
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for the last decade, placed greater
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In addition to these external drive
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and orientation of the PLA. Authors
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propensity to use force, as well as
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In Chapter 9, Michael McDevitt exam
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tion. Saunders also contends that C
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the two powers could possibly form
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it becomes also necessary to assess
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CHAPTER 2 WHITHER CHINA? ALTERNATIV
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• Globalization and a liberal glo
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mand, Control, Communications, Comp
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PLA documents make clear that the
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If nothing changes, the most likely
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• The approach Chinese leaders ad
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30 force development may exhibit mo
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approach to relations with its neig
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Drivers Part 3: Non-Drivers. Finall
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Alternative Future 1: A PLA Focused
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 2 1. See, for ex
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16. U.S. Office of the Secretary of
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DOMESTIC, EXTERNAL, AND TECHNOLOGIC
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and proactively ( 积极的 ) get
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down the Qin dynasty in 209 BCE. 4
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Whereas rural taxes were not suppos
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and opening was accompanied—for t
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of people who post highly nationali
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law, and the party itself must act
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In his first term, Hu Jintao was ra
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others that are not as visible. How
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Why did the Soviet Union disintegra
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adopted, the current dynamic suppor
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Chinese politics over the next deca
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18. Joseph Fewsmith, China Since Ti
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CHAPTER 4 PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARM
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PERIPHERAL VS. WIDER REGIONAL CAPAB
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the PLA has begun to place greater
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this new depth would be limited unl
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political and military issues relat
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helicopters and designed primarily
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etween vessels, protests, and riots
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2013 Defense Budget (in billions$)
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By almost any measure, U.S. power r
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military strategy and force posture
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China might also seek, on balance,
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esponsibilities commensurate with i
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Zambia (2012). 30 Riots in Vietnam,
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Two things could increase the relat
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Source: Arms Transfer Database, Sto
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In general, closer strategic relati
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in particular types of skills and s
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it were accompanied by additional U
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military operations could drain res
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spread mistrust between the Japanes
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Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert and Ge
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though impossible to quantify due t
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47. “Indonesia and China Move Clo
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cal innovations, with MMIs further
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ilities”—input and infrastructu
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asic if endemic problems facing the
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pull” type—that is, driven by P
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military-industrial complex and civ
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ity areas: laser technology, space,
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of at least five geostationary and
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ites, propulsion technologies, bio-
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na’s defense industrial base is b
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Tayho), which commenced production
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military systems. As long as the de
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earliest stages of conflict may be
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Ultimately, the PLA hopes to turn i
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7. Andrew Ross, “On Military Inno
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2011, pp. 7-8; and Richard A. Bitzi
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43. Jon Grevatt, “China Outlines
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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE PEOPLE
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The first encompasses the Yellow, E
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China will not be determined by eco
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Chinese government and perhaps comm
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we must make major progress in mode
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Two important challenges confront t
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force or country, or by the threat
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NEO. The Libyan NEO in 2012, when 4
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Page 218 and 219: This has inspired the Chinese milit
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Page 224 and 225: Chinese writings suggest that the P
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Page 238 and 239: 5. DoD China Report 2013. 6. “Div
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Page 250 and 251: Lastly, the goal of “maintaining
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Page 262 and 263: The long-term transition of the PLA
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Page 277: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION, WORLD,
Page 280 and 281: power with its neighbors, depending
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Association of Southeast Asian Nati
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ally in Singapore. This gives the U
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Manila encourages or facilitates an
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surveillance and command and contro
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United States has reasserted its co
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decided to establish an 80,000-man
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view of its territory. 41 As its po
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Further afield, an expeditionary PL
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10. See for example, Clay Blair, Jr
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No. 3, December 2013, pp. 353-356,
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42. This is not to say there have n
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international rules and norms. The
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States, Russia, China, and major Eu
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tioning. 5 U.S. allies in Europe an
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facilitate or obstruct Chinese goal
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power, which gives Beijing a degree
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argue that the BRICS countries 22 o
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will be domestic pressure for China
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make further multilateral trade lib
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lomatic means to pursue its interes
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status and prestige at both the reg
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to intervene to resolve civil wars
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primarily on maintaining domestic c
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China to fail, but this suspicion w
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and the importance of domestic and
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Contemporary International Relation
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28. See Mathieu Duchatel, Oliver Br
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CHAPTER 11 IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.-CH
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In 2012, growing Chinese-U.S. compe
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Looking out, few foresee the Obama
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There are forecasts of inevitable c
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The Chinese leadership set forth in
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the past to apply pressure on one a
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dealing with disputes and differenc
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trade is conducted by foreign inves
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not to trust each other. As a resul
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as resisting many aspects of Americ
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cal antipathy regarding China’s C
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2. The growing impact of economic g
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At present and for the foreseeable
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extraordinary pressure on Japan for
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and unwilling to engage in serious
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vor after having successfully conso
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The United States also could be exp
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18. James Przystup, “Japan-China
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ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS RICHARD A. B
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DANIEL GEARIN is a China military c
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engineering and Chinese from the U.
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tionally, she has worked on China p
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ROBERT SUTTER is Professor of Pract
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FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VI
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