Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2000

Status of Southeast and Central Pacific Coral Reefs ‘Polynesia Mana Node’
bleaching events than during the last 20 years (which already showed increases). Predicted
sea level rises of 0.5 or 1cm (up to 2010), will be too small to have a major impact.
Predicting outbreaks of species devastating reefs or natural diseases are not possible unless
it is established that these are definitely triggered by human stresses and/or deriving from
global climate changes. Therefore, significant predictions regarding the status of coral reefs
will depend primarily upon the degree of management of human activities.
However, such predictions have to be made with considerable caution. No predictions 40
years ago could have included the growth in tourism or the explosion of the pearl industry,
which are both major economic factors in the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. Technology
advances are so rapid that predictions on how humans will exploit natural resources are near
impossible, but it is certain that exploitation will increase in the short term. Counteracting the
demise of coral reef ecosystems is a greater awareness of the need to conserve resources and
health of the environment, which increases as economies expand and people become better
educated; thus there is a case for both optimism and pessimism.
From a linked anthropogenic and natural context, global climate change is the most
worrying concern. There is a strong probability of increases in both the frequency and
intensity of bleaching events and cyclones with both having greater impacts on coral reefs.
No corrective measures can be proposed other than to reduce the emissions of
greenhouse gases that are causing warming (or reinforcing natural warming). Sea level rises
of 25-95cm (mean of 50cm) until 2100, will benefit coral reefs, which grew are rates
around 60cm per century since the last ice age (10,000 to 14,000 years ago). But the
impacts on low-lying coral islands are likely to be severe in the short-term, with seawater
invading the fresh water under the sands. In the longer term scenario (second half of this
century) any predictions will be too imaginative to have real value, but will rely on whether
we believe that humans will take the necessary actions to save themselves and the Earth
they depend upon.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
All countries reported gaps and recommendations for improved management and conservation
of their coral reefs and resources in the national reports. The following is a compilation of these
findings from the most advanced (French Polynesia) to the least developed:
Political Will
A stronger political will is needed for the conservation of coral reefs and their resources,
which is strongly dependent on the availability of information on the ecological, cultural
and economic importance of these resources. Large proportions of the population exist in
subsistence and rural economies and lack the political perspective and leverage of urban
populations. The latter typically drive the agenda for western style economies and receive
a disproportionate amount of government services. As an example, politicians are
frequently more concerned about tuna exports and the rights of foreign fishermen, than for
subsistence fisheries on remote islands. Most governments pay insufficient attention to
environmental quality and links to different economic sectors e.g. healthy lagoons and reefs
are a requirement for a flourishing tourist industry as well as long-term sustainable
livelihoods of Pacific island people.
195