Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2000

Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000
(Tahiti and some Society islands), and scientific monitoring of lagoon reefs all around Tahiti,
Moorea (e.g. the Tiahura monitoring programme launched in 1991), and on the outer slope
of 14 islands throughout the country. This is a long term monitoring programme on the outer
reef slopes to detect potential for future impacts, acknowledging that most of these reefs
are now healthy, with only natural disturbances (cyclones, bleaching) and no
anthropogenic impacts. In Kiribati there is no monitoring programme, except one to
survey the abundance of the toxic alga, Gambierdiscus, which is responsible for ciguatera.
In Niue and Tokelau there is no active monitoring. In Tonga there is a current monitoring
programme in marine parks and reserves for physical parameters, nutrients, pesticides,
metals, and faecal pollution. In Wallis and Futuna a monitoring programme started in 1999
focussing on the outer slopes of the 3 islands and the lagoon of Wallis, the main island.
The above survey and monitoring programmes do provide information of percent coral
cover on healthy coral reefs, with most outer reef slopes having cover between 16% and
71%, which reflects mostly physical differences and not from anthropogenic impacts.
Wallis and Futuna has the lowest coral cover. Tonga and French Polynesia are intermediate,
and Kiribati has the highest percent cover. Coral cover in the lagoons is highly variable
between locations such that comparisons are of no significance. Few of the results of the
above monitoring programmes have been formally published in scientific journals, with
French Polynesia being the notable exception. Most monitoring information is
predominately in technical reports. Many monitoring endeavours started as surveys, which
were occasionally re-surveyed, but did not constitute regular monitoring programmes of
sufficient scale to establish degradation or recovery of reefs from year to year (again with
the exception of French Polynesia).
PREDICTIONS ON THE FUTURE OF CORAL REEFS
Short, medium and longer term predictions on coral reef health and longevity will vary
depending upon the time scales considered and possible synergies between natural and
human factors that influence coral reefs within and across the region. In general terms, natural
forces will involve either global warming (or cooling), changes in the frequency of El Niño
and bleaching events, exceptional outbreaks of coral eating species (e.g. Acanthaster),
natural diseases etc. The major human factor on the near to long-term horizon will be
population increases, evolution of cultures, advances in technology, development on
islands, control of pollution etc. Any forecasts must take account of all of these scenarios.
At the time scale of the next decade until the end of this century (3 to 4 human
generations), there will definitely be increases in human populations (but not to the extent
of Southeast Asia) and movements of Pacific island peoples in and out of the region.
Cultural values of Pacific islanders will prevail but probably with more conflicts arising from
development activities, western influences and the global economy. Tourism activities and
the black pearl industry will continue to grow. Pollution control will be insufficient to
reverse degradation around the high populated islands, but there will be gradual progress
in the development of natural resource management.
The major unpredictable factors revolve around the rate and impacts of global climate
change. With continued warming, it is predicted that there will be more cyclones and
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