The World in 2030

The World in 2030 91
When will the Singularity Occur?
The short answer is that the near edge of the Singularity
is due about the year 2035 AD. Several lines of
reasoning point to this date. One is simple projection
from human population trends. Human population
over the past 10,000 years has been following
a hyperbolic growth trend.
Since about 1600 AD the trend has been very steadily
accelerating with the asymptote located in the year
2035 AD. Now, either the human population really
will become infinite at that time, or a trend that has
persisted over all of human history will be broken.
Either way it is a pretty special time.
Since computer capacity doubles every two years or
so, we expect that in about 40 years, the computers
will be as powerful as human brains. And two years
after that, they will be twice as powerful, etc. And
computer production is not limited by the rate of
human reproduction. So the total amount of brainpower
available, counting humans plus computers,
takes a rapid jump upward in 40 years or so. 40 years
from now is 2035 AD. 181
In 1995 biologist and writer Dr Steve Alan Edwards 182 wrote
an article for the Australian 21C website (21 st Century
magazine) in which he described the growing army of
‘singularitists’ and ‘tranhumanists’ and discussed their
goals: