The World in 2030

78 The World in 2030
When the human in the test is unable to tell whether he or
she is talking to a machine or to another human being, the
machine is said to have passed the Turing Test.
Today we would add many other features to the test such
as emotional responsiveness and humour yet, in essence,
Turing’s idea remains an ideal evaluation.
So when are we likely to meet computers which approach
human levels of intelligence? This is Ray Kurzweil’s
prediction:
Once we’ve succeeded in creating a machine that can
pass the Turing test (around 2029), the succeeding
period will be an era of consolidation in which nonbiological
intelligence will make rapid gains.
Once strong AI is achieved, it can readily be advanced
and its powers multiplied, as that is the fundamental
nature of machine abilities. As one strong
AI immediately begets many strong AIs, the latter
access their own design, understand and improve it,
and thereby very rapidly evolve into a yet more capable,
more intelligent AI, with the cycle repeating
itself indefinitely. Each cycle not only creates a more
intelligent AI but takes less time than the cycle before
it, as is the nature of technological evolution (or
any evolutionary process). The premise is that once
strong AI is achieved, it will immediately become a
runaway phenomenon 149 of rapidly escalating superintelligence.
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