The World in 2030

The World in 2030 The World in 2030

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The World in 2030 75 of the continuing research into what was once called ‘artificial intelligence’. Software systems now run and control (with human oversight) jets in flight, air traffic control systems, human surgery and military weapons systems. These AI systems are robust and extremely useful and our modern world couldn’t run without them. Professor Marvin Minsky 141 of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston, USA, is widely regarded as the ‘father of artificial intelligence’. Speaking to Discover magazine in 2007 he explained: The history of AI is sort of funny because the first real accomplishments were beautiful things, like a machine that could do proofs in logic or do well in a calculus course. But then we started to try to make machines that could answer questions about the simple kinds of stories that are in a first-grade reader book. There’s no machine today that can do that. So AI researchers looked primarily at problems that people called hard, like playing chess, but they didn’t get very far on problems people found easy. It’s a sort of backwards evolution. I expect with our commonsense reasoning systems we’ll start to make progress pretty soon if we can get funding for it. One problem is people are very skeptical about this kind of work. 142 Asked about his latest 2007 book ‘The Emotion Machine’ Minsky went on to describe the sort of artificial intelligence machine he would like to build today:

76 The World in 2030 The book is actually a plan for how to build a machine. I’d like to be able to hire a team of programmers to create the Emotion Machine architecture that’s described in the book—a machine that can switch between all the different kinds of thinking I discuss. Nobody’s ever built a system that either has or acquires knowledge about thinking itself, so that it can get better at problem solving over time. If I could get five good programmers, I think I could build it in three to five years. We humans are not the end of evolution, so if we can make a machine that’s as smart as a person, we can probably also make one that’s much smarter. There’s no point in making just another person. You want to make one that can do things we can’t. 143 But because 1980s AI research was mistakenly considered to be a failure, current research into developing computers with human-like intelligence and characteristics and intelligence is no longer called artificial intelligence. The field of study is now called ‘super-intelligence’ or ‘strong AI’. Dr. Nick Bostrom again: Given that superintelligence will one day be technologically feasible, will people choose to develop it? This question can pretty confidently be answered in the affirmative. Associated with every step along the road to superintelligence are enormous economic payoffs. The computer industry invests huge sums in the next generation of hardware and software, and it will

<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 75<br />

of the cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g research <strong>in</strong>to what was once called ‘artificial<br />

<strong>in</strong>telligence’. Software systems now run and control (with<br />

human oversight) jets <strong>in</strong> flight, air traffic control systems,<br />

human surgery and military weapons systems. <strong>The</strong>se AI<br />

systems are robust and extremely useful and our modern<br />

world couldn’t run without them.<br />

Professor Marv<strong>in</strong> M<strong>in</strong>sky 141 of the Massachusetts<br />

Institute of Technology <strong>in</strong> Boston, USA, is widely regarded<br />

as the ‘father of artificial <strong>in</strong>telligence’. Speak<strong>in</strong>g to Discover<br />

magaz<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> 2007 he expla<strong>in</strong>ed:<br />

<strong>The</strong> history of AI is sort of funny because the first<br />

real accomplishments were beautiful th<strong>in</strong>gs, like a<br />

mach<strong>in</strong>e that could do proofs <strong>in</strong> logic or do well<br />

<strong>in</strong> a calculus course. But then we started to try to<br />

make mach<strong>in</strong>es that could answer questions about<br />

the simple k<strong>in</strong>ds of stories that are <strong>in</strong> a first-grade<br />

reader book. <strong>The</strong>re’s no mach<strong>in</strong>e today that can do<br />

that. So AI researchers looked primarily at problems<br />

that people called hard, like play<strong>in</strong>g chess, but they<br />

didn’t get very far on problems people found easy.<br />

It’s a sort of backwards evolution. I expect with our<br />

commonsense reason<strong>in</strong>g systems we’ll start to make<br />

progress pretty soon if we can get fund<strong>in</strong>g for it. One<br />

problem is people are very skeptical about this k<strong>in</strong>d<br />

of work. 142<br />

Asked about his latest 2007 book ‘<strong>The</strong> Emotion Mach<strong>in</strong>e’<br />

M<strong>in</strong>sky went on to describe the sort of artificial <strong>in</strong>telligence<br />

mach<strong>in</strong>e he would like to build today:

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