The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 75 of the continuing research into what was once called ‘artificial intelligence’. Software systems now run and control (with human oversight) jets in flight, air traffic control systems, human surgery and military weapons systems. These AI systems are robust and extremely useful and our modern world couldn’t run without them. Professor Marvin Minsky 141 of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston, USA, is widely regarded as the ‘father of artificial intelligence’. Speaking to Discover magazine in 2007 he explained: The history of AI is sort of funny because the first real accomplishments were beautiful things, like a machine that could do proofs in logic or do well in a calculus course. But then we started to try to make machines that could answer questions about the simple kinds of stories that are in a first-grade reader book. There’s no machine today that can do that. So AI researchers looked primarily at problems that people called hard, like playing chess, but they didn’t get very far on problems people found easy. It’s a sort of backwards evolution. I expect with our commonsense reasoning systems we’ll start to make progress pretty soon if we can get funding for it. One problem is people are very skeptical about this kind of work. 142 Asked about his latest 2007 book ‘The Emotion Machine’ Minsky went on to describe the sort of artificial intelligence machine he would like to build today:
76 The World in 2030 The book is actually a plan for how to build a machine. I’d like to be able to hire a team of programmers to create the Emotion Machine architecture that’s described in the book—a machine that can switch between all the different kinds of thinking I discuss. Nobody’s ever built a system that either has or acquires knowledge about thinking itself, so that it can get better at problem solving over time. If I could get five good programmers, I think I could build it in three to five years. We humans are not the end of evolution, so if we can make a machine that’s as smart as a person, we can probably also make one that’s much smarter. There’s no point in making just another person. You want to make one that can do things we can’t. 143 But because 1980s AI research was mistakenly considered to be a failure, current research into developing computers with human-like intelligence and characteristics and intelligence is no longer called artificial intelligence. The field of study is now called ‘super-intelligence’ or ‘strong AI’. Dr. Nick Bostrom again: Given that superintelligence will one day be technologically feasible, will people choose to develop it? This question can pretty confidently be answered in the affirmative. Associated with every step along the road to superintelligence are enormous economic payoffs. The computer industry invests huge sums in the next generation of hardware and software, and it will
- Page 25 and 26: 24 The World in 2030 cut down sharp
- Page 27 and 28: 26 The World in 2030 vital energy t
- Page 29 and 30: 28 The World in 2030 promote peace
- Page 31 and 32: 30 The World in 2030 imports of Ame
- Page 33 and 34: 32 The World in 2030 25 per cent, a
- Page 35 and 36: 34 The World in 2030 were so poor t
- Page 37 and 38: 36 The World in 2030 experience 100
- Page 39 and 40: 38 The World in 2030 provide cures
- Page 41 and 42: 40 The World in 2030 (at least, of
- Page 43 and 44: 42 The World in 2030 cells for baby
- Page 46 and 47: The wealth of the developed world h
- Page 48 and 49: The World in 2030 47 I agree with t
- Page 50 and 51: The World in 2030 49 The developmen
- Page 52 and 53: The World in 2030 51 where there is
- Page 54 and 55: The World in 2030 53 flooding out o
- Page 56 and 57: The World in 2030 55 future. This i
- Page 58 and 59: The World in 2030 57 driven by adva
- Page 60 and 61: The World in 2030 59 than a single
- Page 62 and 63: The World in 2030 61 It is possible
- Page 64 and 65: The World in 2030 63 And the device
- Page 66 and 67: The World in 2030 65 he also has do
- Page 68 and 69: The World in 2030 67 Soon, almost e
- Page 70 and 71: The World in 2030 69 but put them t
- Page 72 and 73: The World in 2030 71 is an RFID chi
- Page 74 and 75: The World in 2030 73 You will know
- Page 78 and 79: The World in 2030 77 continue doing
- Page 80 and 81: The World in 2030 79 Those of you w
- Page 82 and 83: The World in 2030 81 because intell
- Page 84 and 85: The World in 2030 83 This area of r
- Page 86 and 87: The World in 2030 85 rich and poor
- Page 88 and 89: The World in 2030 87 Prosperity’.
- Page 90 and 91: The World in 2030 89 The Singularit
- Page 92 and 93: The World in 2030 91 When will the
- Page 94 and 95: The World in 2030 93 the Omega Poin
- Page 96: The World in 2030 95 But even as ma
- Page 100 and 101: CNN Online News: Europe, 18 October
- Page 102 and 103: The World in 2030 101 four degrees
- Page 104 and 105: The World in 2030 103 over the last
- Page 106 and 107: The World in 2030 105 When we consi
- Page 108 and 109: The World in 2030 107 And in 2007,
- Page 110 and 111: The World in 2030 109 should be all
- Page 112 and 113: The World in 2030 111 In January 20
- Page 114 and 115: The World in 2030 113 In the year 2
- Page 116 and 117: The World in 2030 115 emissions by
- Page 118 and 119: The World in 2030 117 United Nation
- Page 120 and 121: The World in 2030 119 raise promisc
- Page 122 and 123: The World in 2030 121 As Jeremy Rif
- Page 124 and 125: The World in 2030 123 a foul brown
<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 75<br />
of the cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g research <strong>in</strong>to what was once called ‘artificial<br />
<strong>in</strong>telligence’. Software systems now run and control (with<br />
human oversight) jets <strong>in</strong> flight, air traffic control systems,<br />
human surgery and military weapons systems. <strong>The</strong>se AI<br />
systems are robust and extremely useful and our modern<br />
world couldn’t run without them.<br />
Professor Marv<strong>in</strong> M<strong>in</strong>sky 141 of the Massachusetts<br />
Institute of Technology <strong>in</strong> Boston, USA, is widely regarded<br />
as the ‘father of artificial <strong>in</strong>telligence’. Speak<strong>in</strong>g to Discover<br />
magaz<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> 2007 he expla<strong>in</strong>ed:<br />
<strong>The</strong> history of AI is sort of funny because the first<br />
real accomplishments were beautiful th<strong>in</strong>gs, like a<br />
mach<strong>in</strong>e that could do proofs <strong>in</strong> logic or do well<br />
<strong>in</strong> a calculus course. But then we started to try to<br />
make mach<strong>in</strong>es that could answer questions about<br />
the simple k<strong>in</strong>ds of stories that are <strong>in</strong> a first-grade<br />
reader book. <strong>The</strong>re’s no mach<strong>in</strong>e today that can do<br />
that. So AI researchers looked primarily at problems<br />
that people called hard, like play<strong>in</strong>g chess, but they<br />
didn’t get very far on problems people found easy.<br />
It’s a sort of backwards evolution. I expect with our<br />
commonsense reason<strong>in</strong>g systems we’ll start to make<br />
progress pretty soon if we can get fund<strong>in</strong>g for it. One<br />
problem is people are very skeptical about this k<strong>in</strong>d<br />
of work. 142<br />
Asked about his latest 2007 book ‘<strong>The</strong> Emotion Mach<strong>in</strong>e’<br />
M<strong>in</strong>sky went on to describe the sort of artificial <strong>in</strong>telligence<br />
mach<strong>in</strong>e he would like to build today: