The World in 2030

The World in 2030 49
The development of physical technologies was even
slower in early history. Humankind didn’t discover how to
produce iron for another 4,000 years (approximately 3,000
BCE, at about the same time as our species learned how to
harness wind power for sailing).
The (relatively) stable period of Greek and Roman
civilisation ushered in many new military and domestic
technologies but, following the collapse of Rome, there
followed the Dark Ages – almost 800 years of conflict,
pestilence and plague that created a stasis which prevented
the invention of any significant new technologies (at least,
in Europe).
The ramping up of exponential technological
development which has led to today’s (seemingly) frenetic
pace of innovation began in the 15th century with the
European invention of printing with moveable type. This
allowed the knowledge learned by each generation to be
stored, replicated inexpensively, distributed and forwarded
for the benefit of future generations – and it triggered the
Renaissance.
Now, as the young first began to stand on the shoulders
of giants, the speed of technological development started
to gather pace and it is possible in hindsight to discern its
exponential nature (an acceleration fuelled by faster and
richer information flows – the key driver of all accelerating
technological development).
In the 16 th and 17 th centuries the science of navigation
developed alongside the measurement of time and the