The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 305 that stimulates follicle generating genes in skin cells under wound conditions. They hope this discovery may one day lead to treatments for baldness and abnormal hair growth. Dr. George Cotsarelis and colleagues from the Department of Dermatology, Kligman Laboratories, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, in Philadelphia, US, found that when skin is wounded, the cells of the epidermis take on the properties of stem cells and generate new hair follicles that are capable of growing new shafts of hair. So far the results have only been achieved in mice, but the hope is the same is true of human skin. 531 But it won’t only be treatments for troubling but minor conditions that will be available in 2030. By that point medicine will be able to offer patients specific ‘enhancements’ to their physiology. At this point it is important to put the notion of ‘human enhancement’ into social context. In his 2006 paper ‘Cognitive Enhancement: Methods, Ethics, Regulatory Challenges,’ Dr. Nick Bostrom provides some perspective: Most efforts to enhance cognition are of a rather mundane nature, and some have been practiced for thousands of years. The prime example is education and training, where the goal is often not only to impart specific skills or information, but also to improve general mental faculties such as concentration, memory, and critical thinking. Other forms of
306 The World in 2030 mental training, such as yoga, martial arts, meditation, and creativity courses are also in common use. Caffeine is widely used to improve alertness. Herbal extracts reputed to improve memory are popular, with sales of Ginko biloba alone in the order of several hundred million dollars annually in the US. In an ordinary supermarket we find a staggering number of energy drinks on display, vying for consumers hoping to turbo-charge their brains. 532 But by 2030 wealthy people will be expecting far more than just cosmetic improvements from their doctors and the enhancements available from education and fizzy drinks. The genetic manipulation of proteins and molecules, sometimes referred to as ‘genetic engineering’ or ‘germline engineering’, holds some extreme promises for the treatment of disease and even the enhancement, physically and intellectually, of individual humans. Writing in his 2006 book ‘Mind Set! Reset Your Thinking And See The Future’, the Vienna-based futurist John Naisbitt describes some of the hopes for germline engineering and warns of its implications: The great dilemma of the twenty-first century will be that although germline engineering will allow us to treat and eventually eliminate diseases and disorders such as Alzheimer’s, Downs syndrome, and Parkinson’s, the very same technology will allow us to make people taller, stronger, smarter, more beautiful. In short, we will be able to create a perfect race. This of course falls under the long shadow of eugenics, the
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306 <strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong><br />
mental tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g, such as yoga, martial arts, meditation,<br />
and creativity courses are also <strong>in</strong> common use.<br />
Caffe<strong>in</strong>e is widely used to improve alertness. Herbal<br />
extracts reputed to improve memory are popular,<br />
with sales of G<strong>in</strong>ko biloba alone <strong>in</strong> the order of several<br />
hundred million dollars annually <strong>in</strong> the US. In an<br />
ord<strong>in</strong>ary supermarket we f<strong>in</strong>d a stagger<strong>in</strong>g number of<br />
energy dr<strong>in</strong>ks on display, vy<strong>in</strong>g for consumers hop<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to turbo-charge their bra<strong>in</strong>s. 532<br />
But by <strong>2030</strong> wealthy people will be expect<strong>in</strong>g far more than<br />
just cosmetic improvements from their doctors and the<br />
enhancements available from education and fizzy dr<strong>in</strong>ks. <strong>The</strong><br />
genetic manipulation of prote<strong>in</strong>s and molecules, sometimes<br />
referred to as ‘genetic eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g’ or ‘germl<strong>in</strong>e eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g’,<br />
holds some extreme promises for the treatment of disease<br />
and even the enhancement, physically and <strong>in</strong>tellectually, of<br />
<strong>in</strong>dividual humans.<br />
Writ<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> his 2006 book ‘M<strong>in</strong>d Set! Reset Your Th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g<br />
And See <strong>The</strong> Future’, the Vienna-based futurist John Naisbitt<br />
describes some of the hopes for germl<strong>in</strong>e eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
warns of its implications:<br />
<strong>The</strong> great dilemma of the twenty-first century will be<br />
that although germl<strong>in</strong>e eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g will allow us to<br />
treat and eventually elim<strong>in</strong>ate diseases and disorders<br />
such as Alzheimer’s, Downs syndrome, and Park<strong>in</strong>son’s,<br />
the very same technology will allow us to make<br />
people taller, stronger, smarter, more beautiful. In<br />
short, we will be able to create a perfect race. This of<br />
course falls under the long shadow of eugenics, the