The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 29 The most dramatic, and most obvious, example of the impact of globalisation followed the admission of China into the World Trade Organisation in 2001 when many international trade tariffs were lifted. As a direct result tens of millions of Chinese citizens have been lifted out of poverty 44 and in 2004 China overtook Japan to become the world’s third-largest exporter, behind America and Germany. The effect of WTO membership has been to bind China more tightly into existing and highly sophisticated pan- Asian production networks, a task greatly facilitated by the internet. Everybody in the region has benefited, 45 even rich Japan, which in 2002-03 was pulled out of a decade and a half’s slump by Chinese demand for top-notch components and capital goods. South-East Asia has been given a further boost: rich in resources, including rubber, crude oil, palm oil and natural gas, it looks likely to profit from China’s appetite for raw materials and energy for a long time to come. Now China’s economy is growing by at least seven per cent each year, a trend which is forecast to continue for the next fifteen years. 46 By 2030 China’s economy is expected to be the largest 47 or second largest 48 in the world. But today ‘globalisation’ seems to be regarded by many people as the rape of poor ethnic cultures by the rich countries of the developed world – witness the mobs of anti-globalisation protestors 49 who turn up at most G8 meetings. To critics, globalisation is seen as the ‘McDonald’sization’ and ‘Disneyfication’ of nations that have been softened up to welcome such a cultural and economic invasion by massive
30 The World in 2030 imports of American television shows and films. But the renowned veteran American futurist John Naisbitt 50 (author of the best-selling 1982 book ‘Megatrends’ 51 ) rejects the idea that globalisation is a form of American cultural colonialism. In his 2006 book ‘Mind Set! Reset Your Thinking And See The Future’ he observes: The question is: ‘Does globalization mean Americanization?’ My short answer is no. In measuring globalization, we can count telephone calls, currency flows, trade sums, and so on, but the spread of culture and ideas cannot be so easily measured. Embedded in the present is the unrecognized paradox that culturally, America itself is changing more dramatically than America is changing the world. Immigration is reshaping America more profoundly than America’s influence around the world. In the United States there are more Chinese restaurants than there are McDonald’s. 52 However, another world-famous American futurist, Jeremy Rifkin 53 – author of the bestselling books ‘The End of Work’, 54 ‘The Biotech Century’ 55 and ‘The Age of Access’ 56 – sees both sides of the argument. He writes in his 2002 book ‘The Hydrogen Economy’: Globalization is the defining dynamic of our time. Proponents look to it as the next great economic advance for humanity and as a way to improve the lives of people everywhere. Its critics view it as the ultimate example of corporate dominance over the affairs of society and as a means to deepen the gap
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 29<br />
<strong>The</strong> most dramatic, and most obvious, example of the<br />
impact of globalisation followed the admission of Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
<strong>in</strong>to the <strong>World</strong> Trade Organisation <strong>in</strong> 2001 when many<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternational trade tariffs were lifted. As a direct result tens of<br />
millions of Ch<strong>in</strong>ese citizens have been lifted out of poverty 44<br />
and <strong>in</strong> 2004 Ch<strong>in</strong>a overtook Japan to become the world’s<br />
third-largest exporter, beh<strong>in</strong>d America and Germany.<br />
<strong>The</strong> effect of WTO membership has been to b<strong>in</strong>d Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
more tightly <strong>in</strong>to exist<strong>in</strong>g and highly sophisticated pan-<br />
Asian production networks, a task greatly facilitated by the<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternet. Everybody <strong>in</strong> the region has benefited, 45 even rich<br />
Japan, which <strong>in</strong> 2002-03 was pulled out of a decade and a<br />
half’s slump by Ch<strong>in</strong>ese demand for top-notch components<br />
and capital goods. South-East Asia has been given a further<br />
boost: rich <strong>in</strong> resources, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g rubber, crude oil, palm<br />
oil and natural gas, it looks likely to profit from Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s<br />
appetite for raw materials and energy for a long time to come.<br />
Now Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s economy is grow<strong>in</strong>g by at least seven per cent<br />
each year, a trend which is forecast to cont<strong>in</strong>ue for the next<br />
fifteen years. 46 By <strong>2030</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s economy is expected to be<br />
the largest 47 or second largest 48 <strong>in</strong> the world.<br />
But today ‘globalisation’ seems to be regarded by<br />
many people as the rape of poor ethnic cultures by the<br />
rich countries of the developed world – witness the mobs<br />
of anti-globalisation protestors 49 who turn up at most G8<br />
meet<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
To critics, globalisation is seen as the ‘McDonald’sization’<br />
and ‘Disneyfication’ of nations that have been softened up to<br />
welcome such a cultural and economic <strong>in</strong>vasion by massive