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The World in 2030

The World in 2030

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<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 291<br />

people were likely to live <strong>in</strong> retirement had failed to<br />

grasp the pace of change.<br />

A one-year <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> life expectancy could <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

the total UK private sector pensions bill by as much<br />

as £30bn to £40bn. It could also force life <strong>in</strong>surers<br />

to add as much as £3bn-£4bn to their reserves. <strong>The</strong><br />

projections could wipe out ga<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> pension scheme<br />

solvency that have come about through ris<strong>in</strong>g markets<br />

and <strong>in</strong>creased provision.<br />

Widely-used forecasts assume that life expectancy<br />

after 65 has either stopped climb<strong>in</strong>g or is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />

slower than a decade ago. But the data show it is ris<strong>in</strong>g<br />

more sharply. Data last year showed a man born<br />

<strong>in</strong> 1950 who lived to be 65 will on average live to be<br />

nearly 90. 513<br />

By <strong>2030</strong> I th<strong>in</strong>k humans will be push<strong>in</strong>g maximum life<br />

boundaries to 130 years and beyond. It is almost certa<strong>in</strong> that<br />

both genu<strong>in</strong>e and effective rejuvenation and life extension<br />

therapies will be available and <strong>in</strong> widespread use, although<br />

I doubt that <strong>in</strong>def<strong>in</strong>ite life extension will be achievable at<br />

that po<strong>in</strong>t.<br />

<strong>The</strong> biggest question I have about the notion of ‘liv<strong>in</strong>g<br />

forever’ is whether human be<strong>in</strong>gs are psychologically prepared<br />

for very extended life spans. This question is someth<strong>in</strong>g that<br />

has never been contemplated before <strong>in</strong> the whole of human<br />

evolution. We have never previously had to consider the<br />

likely attitude of a 100 year-old m<strong>in</strong>d (or, more accurately,<br />

a biologically youthful m<strong>in</strong>d with 100 years of experience)

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