The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 289 that if he can just remain healthy for another fifteen years he may arrive at a point at which science can offer him age reversal and a greatly extended youthful life? Kurzweil and his writing partner Dr. Grossman are not alone in believing that human longevity is soon going to be extended significantly. James Canton is another noted American futurist who sees dramatic possibilities being offered by medicine of the future. Writing in his book ‘The Extreme Future’ he predicts: Longevity scientists that I have met are unlocking the secrets of age embedded in our genes, and as organ replacement and stem-cell research frontiers are being crossed, I forecast that the era of longer living, beyond one hundred years of age, will become common within ten years and be considered a birthright by 2025, due to Longevity Medicine. 511 These projections sound almost too fantastic to be true but, after weighing the science and reviewing all available evidence, I too have come to the conclusion that both rejuvenation therapies and life extension will become possible for humans in the 21 st century. But I am not convinced by the timescale suggested by Mssrs. Kurzweil, Grossman and Canton, nor by the simplistic dream of wanting to ‘live forever’. Futurologists study trends and it is clear that human longevity has steadily, but quite significantly, begun to increase without the help of specific rejuvenation treatments. In a paper entitled ‘Emergence of Super Centenarians in Low Mortality Countries’, Dr. Jean-Marie Robine of INSERM,
290 The World in 2030 France and Professor James W. Vaupel of the Max Planck Institute, Germany, wrote: Although the exponential increase in the number of centenarians which started just after World War II is today well documented in Europe and Japan, this is still not the case for extremely old persons having reached the age of 105 years – the semi super centenarians – or even of 110 years – the super centenarians. The first cases of validated super centenarians appeared in the 1960s but their numbers have steadily increased since the mid 1980s. The current prevalence of known super-centenarians in low mortality countries involved in the International Database on Longevity (IDL) is approximately 10 times more than in the mid 1970s. In roughly twenty years, from 1980 to 2000, the maximum reported age at death, assumed to indicate the maximum life span of the human species and itself seen as a quite stable characteristic of our species, has increased by about 10 years from 112 to 122 years. 512 And in July 2007 The Financial Times reported: The cost of providing pensions and annuities could soar by billions of pounds after the actuarial profession and its regulator warned that life expectancy was increasing at a rapid rate and estimates of how long
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 289<br />
that if he can just rema<strong>in</strong> healthy for another fifteen years<br />
he may arrive at a po<strong>in</strong>t at which science can offer him age<br />
reversal and a greatly extended youthful life?<br />
Kurzweil and his writ<strong>in</strong>g partner Dr. Grossman are not<br />
alone <strong>in</strong> believ<strong>in</strong>g that human longevity is soon go<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
be extended significantly. James Canton is another noted<br />
American futurist who sees dramatic possibilities be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
offered by medic<strong>in</strong>e of the future. Writ<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> his book ‘<strong>The</strong><br />
Extreme Future’ he predicts:<br />
Longevity scientists that I have met are unlock<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
secrets of age embedded <strong>in</strong> our genes, and as organ<br />
replacement and stem-cell research frontiers are be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
crossed, I forecast that the era of longer liv<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
beyond one hundred years of age, will become common<br />
with<strong>in</strong> ten years and be considered a birthright<br />
by 2025, due to Longevity Medic<strong>in</strong>e. 511<br />
<strong>The</strong>se projections sound almost too fantastic to be true but,<br />
after weigh<strong>in</strong>g the science and review<strong>in</strong>g all available evidence,<br />
I too have come to the conclusion that both rejuvenation<br />
therapies and life extension will become possible for humans<br />
<strong>in</strong> the 21 st century. But I am not conv<strong>in</strong>ced by the timescale<br />
suggested by Mssrs. Kurzweil, Grossman and Canton, nor<br />
by the simplistic dream of want<strong>in</strong>g to ‘live forever’.<br />
Futurologists study trends and it is clear that human<br />
longevity has steadily, but quite significantly, begun to<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease without the help of specific rejuvenation treatments.<br />
In a paper entitled ‘Emergence of Super Centenarians <strong>in</strong> Low<br />
Mortality Countries’, Dr. Jean-Marie Rob<strong>in</strong>e of INSERM,