The World in 2030

28 The World in 2030
promote peace’. Both extreme forms of globalisation are being
pursued in 2007, along with many more moderate examples
and the massive trend towards the internationalisation of
trade will be a major driver of the changes we will experience
between now and 2030.
Globalisation 42 in essence means unfettered international
trade, although the world still has a long way to go before
all barriers to trade are removed. In principal, trade – and
especially international trade – is a good thing in which
all parties to the deal increase their wealth. Increasing
global wealth is a noble aim and little is more successful in
guaranteeing peace than improving prosperity. The financial
benefits of globalisation are explained in an economic theory
called ‘comparative advantage’. 43
European nations pioneered a colonial form of
globalisation in the 18 th and 19 th centuries as they expanded
their empires and traded goods all around the world, but
since then free trade has suffered many setbacks from
outbreaks of nationalism, protectionism, world wars (and
a complete retreat from globalisation between the world
wars) and over fifty years of global ideological polarisation
between capitalism and communism.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end
of the Cold War the stage was ready once again for trade
on a truly global scale to resume. This time, however, longdistance
trade was facilitated by the arrival of the internet,
low-cost communications technology and (acknowledging
the legitimate concerns over aviation’s impact on climate
change) low-cost air travel.