The World in 2030

The World in 2030 249
to a massive global recession? Why don’t I consider the
likelihood that secular and modernising Turkey might go into
reverse and find itself being ruled by Islamic fundamentalists,
a move that could alter the entire balance of power in the
Middle East? And why don’t I worry about the possibility
that Iran (or North Korea) may be well advanced with the
development of nuclear weapons, weapons that it may very
likely use?
The answer is that I do consider all of these things,
and some of them may indeed happen, but the long view
of human history is one of consistent and substantial
improvement in living conditions, a trend so clear that it is
unarguable. As John Naisbitt observes:
The history of civilization is that things get better.
Life expectancy, living conditions, and freedom of
choice have improved over the millennia, despite all
setbacks and shortcomings. 469
It is for this reason, and in particular because such substantial
improvements in poverty reduction, healthcare and wealth
generation from business efficiency have been made in the
last half century, that I view the immediate future with a
firm but realistic optimism. Any of the dire events I mention
above (and there are many other potential problems I did
not list) may occur, and there will undoubtedly be major
setbacks to world progress in the 21 st century, just as there
have been in previous centuries. But futurologists are trend
spotters; we identify the most powerful trends occurring in
the present and the immediate past and extrapolate their
likely path forward into the future. Today’s most dominant