The World in 2030

248 The World in 2030
and family smoked cigarettes? How much consideration did
you give to climate change, the environment and recycling?
And what percentage of your consumer goods and items of
clothing were made locally and how many were imported
from low-cost economies?
Most people would agree that in the developed world there
has been very substantial technological and social change in
the last twenty-five years and, in our attempt to imagine what
life might be like in 2030 we have to remind ourselves about
accelerating, exponential technology development. This
phenomenon means that we will enjoy (or suffer, depending
on your point of view) as much technological development
in the next eight years as we have seen in the last twenty
years. And because ‘exponential’ means exponential, we will
see as much change again in the next four to five years and
as much change again in the next two to three years.
So by the time we get to 2030 (no doubt exhausted and
out of breath, but perhaps also exhilarated and excited) we
will have seen as much new technological development and
progress as we saw in the whole of the 20 th century. And
during the 21 st century as a whole we will see the equivalent
to 20,000 years’ worth 468 of technological development and
progress at today’s (2007) rate of technological progress.
I am often asked why I am an optimist about the future
when so many indicators suggest that major problems
threaten to overtake the world. Why don’t I factor for a
backlash occurring within the communist regime in China,
a backlash against capitalism and consumerism that could
completely destabilise the world’s stock markets and lead