The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 203 most have never had a drop of E85 (ethanol fuel) in their tank. They are only fueled with standard gasoline blends. There are over 6 million vehicles on the US streets that could run E85. Most never have. Most FFVs are oil guzzlers; fueled with E85, they are corn guzzlers. In 2007 the best rated car running on E85 was the Chevrolet Impala, with a United States EPA mileage rating of 16 miles per gallon in the city and 23 on the highway when fueled with E85. For a typical US year of driving, the annual fuel cost would be at $1,657 and 6 tons of CO 2 would be emitted by this FFV when running on E85. A big problem is that ethanol cuts miles per gallon by about 27 per cent. The energy content of E85 is 83,000 BTU/gallon, instead of 114,000 BTU/gallon for gasoline. Even by 2030, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that only 1.4 per cent of ethanol use will be E85. The vast majority will be for small percentage blending with gasoline. 386 So, if ethanol is an unsuitable biofuel (except perhaps as a basis for jet fuel – see previous section) what type of biofuel might have a role in the sustainable world of energy? One solution is to re-use fats and oils which have already been used for one purpose for transportation energy – as the McDonald’s restaurants do in the UK. The company’s 150 trucks are powered by the vegetable oil that has cooked their popular hamburgers and fries. 387
204 The World in 2030 But leaving aside the fortuitous re-use of cooking oils, general transport biofuels include diesel replacements (biodiesel) and sources of such energy range from sugar cane (the most efficient) to wood (at present, the least efficient). All sorts of issues affect how carbon-efficient, or inefficient, biofuels may be. These include the energy and water used to grow the fuel feedstock, the quality of agricultural land required for growing, the carbon emitted to assist the growing (in the production and use of fertilisers, for example) and the energy efficiency of the refined fuels themselves. For example, sugar cane provides between eight and nine times the energy used in producing them, while energy from rape seed oil and other similar temperate crops produces only one to three times the energy used in their cultivation. 388 Then there are the issues of the energy used in converting specific crops into usable energy and the energy consumed in transporting such fuels to their final destination. Also of vital importance is the issue of giving land over to the production of biofuel (in some cases leading to the destruction of forested areas or the usurpation of food-producing land). Because these issues are so complex many consumers are, at present, unable to make a meaningful choice about biofuels; far more information is needed on this topic and governments will soon have to regulate to ensure that only the most efficient and environmentally benign forms of fuel make it onto the gas station forecourts. Environmentalists have a useful rule of thumb on this topic. They say that a biofuel must emit at least 50 per cent less carbon (during its cultivation, transportation and consumption) than the fossil fuel it will be replacing to make it a useful substitute.
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204 <strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong><br />
But leav<strong>in</strong>g aside the fortuitous re-use of cook<strong>in</strong>g oils,<br />
general transport biofuels <strong>in</strong>clude diesel replacements<br />
(biodiesel) and sources of such energy range from sugar<br />
cane (the most efficient) to wood (at present, the least<br />
efficient). All sorts of issues affect how carbon-efficient,<br />
or <strong>in</strong>efficient, biofuels may be. <strong>The</strong>se <strong>in</strong>clude the energy<br />
and water used to grow the fuel feedstock, the quality<br />
of agricultural land required for grow<strong>in</strong>g, the carbon<br />
emitted to assist the grow<strong>in</strong>g (<strong>in</strong> the production and use<br />
of fertilisers, for example) and the energy efficiency of the<br />
ref<strong>in</strong>ed fuels themselves. For example, sugar cane provides<br />
between eight and n<strong>in</strong>e times the energy used <strong>in</strong> produc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
them, while energy from rape seed oil and other similar<br />
temperate crops produces only one to three times the<br />
energy used <strong>in</strong> their cultivation. 388 <strong>The</strong>n there are the issues<br />
of the energy used <strong>in</strong> convert<strong>in</strong>g specific crops <strong>in</strong>to usable<br />
energy and the energy consumed <strong>in</strong> transport<strong>in</strong>g such fuels<br />
to their f<strong>in</strong>al dest<strong>in</strong>ation. Also of vital importance is the<br />
issue of giv<strong>in</strong>g land over to the production of biofuel (<strong>in</strong><br />
some cases lead<strong>in</strong>g to the destruction of forested areas or<br />
the usurpation of food-produc<strong>in</strong>g land).<br />
Because these issues are so complex many consumers<br />
are, at present, unable to make a mean<strong>in</strong>gful choice about<br />
biofuels; far more <strong>in</strong>formation is needed on this topic and<br />
governments will soon have to regulate to ensure that only<br />
the most efficient and environmentally benign forms of fuel<br />
make it onto the gas station forecourts. Environmentalists<br />
have a useful rule of thumb on this topic. <strong>The</strong>y say that a<br />
biofuel must emit at least 50 per cent less carbon (dur<strong>in</strong>g its<br />
cultivation, transportation and consumption) than the fossil<br />
fuel it will be replac<strong>in</strong>g to make it a useful substitute.