The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 189 intensive, with a step change during the 1980s and 1990s with the move from coal-fired power to gas. Therefore, despite the near doubling of electricity demand over the long-term, the carbon emissions associated with electricity generation have shown a very moderate increase of around 8 per cent (4MtC) over the same period. 360 Natural gas trails coal as the most popular fuel for the future (presumably for political reasons) but it is predicted to increase slightly its current share of the global energy mix. However, in March 2007 Gulf Times reported that natural gas is currently the fastest growing component of the world energy mix and its share will rise to 25 per cent by 2025, and the US government’s Energy Information Administration predicted: Natural gas trails coal as the fastest growing primary energy source in 2006. The natural gas share of total world energy consumption increases from 24 per cent in 2003 to 26 per cent in 2030. 361 Energy Efficiency and Conservation With such a large increase in energy consumption predicted between now and 2030 (by all commentators), with the menacing problem of climate change and with the fact that some fossil fuels are running out we have no option but to
190 The World in 2030 conserve energy aggressively and to use fuel in the most efficient manner possible. Because we have previously been living in a period of ‘cheap energy’ and social carelessness there is huge room for improvement in our current patterns of usage. Most energy wastage occurs in the heating and cooling of buildings and plastics have a major role to play in insulating spaces against thermal transfer (either heat loss or cooling loss) and in providing components for construction which are very much more thermally efficient than traditional materials. Energy efficiency in construction is a major goal for the international plastics industry, not least because plastics of one sort or another have such a large role to play in saving energy. The use of plastics to replace glass, to replace less efficient insulating materials and to provide component parts for construction is demonstrated in specially built homes erected by the BASF chemicals and plastics company. In the USA the company has built a near-zero energy house 362 in Paterson, New Jersey which has been donated to a local housing trust while, in Germany, the company has built a number of what it calls ‘three litre houses’ in Ludwigshafen’s Brunck district 363 . Annually, these super-efficient houses use only three litres of oil per square metre to provide all heating needs. These houses showcase the superb insulating properties of plastic insulation and the energy saving potential of plastic components for construction. And the quest for energy efficiency and environmental friendliness reportedly played a large part in Britain’s securing of the 2012 Olympic Games for London. As the BBC reported:
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 189<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensive, with a step change dur<strong>in</strong>g the 1980s and<br />
1990s with the move from coal-fired power to gas.<br />
<strong>The</strong>refore, despite the near doubl<strong>in</strong>g of electricity<br />
demand over the long-term, the carbon emissions<br />
associated with electricity generation have shown a<br />
very moderate <strong>in</strong>crease of around 8 per cent (4MtC)<br />
over the same period. 360<br />
Natural gas trails coal as the most popular fuel for the future<br />
(presumably for political reasons) but it is predicted to<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease slightly its current share of the global energy mix.<br />
However, <strong>in</strong> March 2007 Gulf Times reported that natural<br />
gas is currently the fastest grow<strong>in</strong>g component of the world<br />
energy mix and its share will rise to 25 per cent by 2025, and<br />
the US government’s Energy Information Adm<strong>in</strong>istration<br />
predicted:<br />
Natural gas trails coal as the fastest grow<strong>in</strong>g primary<br />
energy source <strong>in</strong> 2006. <strong>The</strong> natural gas share of total<br />
world energy consumption <strong>in</strong>creases from 24 per<br />
cent <strong>in</strong> 2003 to 26 per cent <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong>. 361<br />
Energy Efficiency and Conservation<br />
With such a large <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> energy consumption predicted<br />
between now and <strong>2030</strong> (by all commentators), with the<br />
menac<strong>in</strong>g problem of climate change and with the fact that<br />
some fossil fuels are runn<strong>in</strong>g out we have no option but to