The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 17 I like to speculate on the possibility that we could synthesize all the food needed by eight billion people, and thereby abandon agriculture… The chemicals for food synthesis would come directly from the air, or more conveniently from carbon compounds sequestered from power station effluent, and all that we would need in addition would be water and trace elements. 14 Another factor that will have a major impact on food production methods is climate change, but the impact of this is harder to predict and will vary from region to region. Suffice to say that technological advances in food production methods will continue to have the potential to feed the Earth’s enormously expanded population even if, in some of the world’s poorest regions, poverty, corruption, bad politics and conflict (and, in some areas, acute climate change) will continue to cause widespread famine. Drinking water, on the other hand, is often forecast to be in very short supply in some parts of the world (fresh water accounts for only 2.5 per cent 15 of all the water in the world and most of that is frozen). Today, over one billion people worldwide do not have access to clean drinking water. Disease resulting from contaminated water leads to 1.8 million deaths every year and can account for 80 per cent of all illnesses in developing countries. 16 The pressures on water are well illustrated by the following report published by US Nation & World Report in May 2007:
18 The World in 2030 Over the course of the past 40 years, north Africa’s Lake Chad has shriveled to one tenth its earlier size, beset by decades of drought and agricultural irrigation that have sucked water from the rivers that feed it – even as the number of people whose lives depend on its existence has grown. In 1990, the Lake Chad basin supported about 26 million people; by 2004 the total was 37.2 million. In the next 15 years, experts predict, the incredible shrinking lake and its tapped rivers will need to support 55 million. The population growth has coincided with a 25 percent decrease in rainfall, with global warming very likely a factor. As oceans store more heat, the temperature difference between water and land dissipates, sapping power from rainmaking monsoons. At the same time, desperate people are overusing wells. Lake Chad, with its confluence of troubles, is emblematic of a burgeoning water crisis around the world. While the western United States faces serious water problems, American money and know-how can at least soften the blow. Not so elsewhere. Worldwide, 1.1 billion people lack clean water, 2.6 billion people go without sanitation, and 1.8 million children die every year because of one or the other, or both. By 2025, the United Nations predicts 3 billion people will be scrambling for clean water. 17 The United Nations further predicts 18 that by the middle of this century between two billion and seven billion people
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18 <strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong><br />
Over the course of the past 40 years, north Africa’s<br />
Lake Chad has shriveled to one tenth its earlier size,<br />
beset by decades of drought and agricultural irrigation<br />
that have sucked water from the rivers that feed it<br />
– even as the number of people whose lives depend on<br />
its existence has grown. In 1990, the Lake Chad bas<strong>in</strong><br />
supported about 26 million people; by 2004 the total<br />
was 37.2 million. In the next 15 years, experts predict,<br />
the <strong>in</strong>credible shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g lake and its tapped rivers will<br />
need to support 55 million.<br />
<strong>The</strong> population growth has co<strong>in</strong>cided with a<br />
25 percent decrease <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall, with global warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
very likely a factor. As oceans store more heat,<br />
the temperature difference between water and land<br />
dissipates, sapp<strong>in</strong>g power from ra<strong>in</strong>mak<strong>in</strong>g monsoons.<br />
At the same time, desperate people are<br />
overus<strong>in</strong>g wells.<br />
Lake Chad, with its confluence of troubles, is emblematic<br />
of a burgeon<strong>in</strong>g water crisis around the world.<br />
While the western United States faces serious water<br />
problems, American money and know-how can at<br />
least soften the blow. Not so elsewhere. <strong>World</strong>wide,<br />
1.1 billion people lack clean water, 2.6 billion people<br />
go without sanitation, and 1.8 million children die<br />
every year because of one or the other, or both. By<br />
2025, the United Nations predicts 3 billion people will<br />
be scrambl<strong>in</strong>g for clean water. 17<br />
<strong>The</strong> United Nations further predicts 18 that by the middle of<br />
this century between two billion and seven billion people
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