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The World in 2030

The World in 2030

The World in 2030

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<strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong> 187<br />

or new methods of more efficient extraction are found.<br />

For example, <strong>The</strong> New York Times reported bullishly <strong>in</strong><br />

March 2007:<br />

Will we seek a peak production year (2010?) and<br />

will supplies after that become erratic and uncerta<strong>in</strong>?<br />

No.<br />

More oil available than thought – new steam pressure<br />

method raises extraction rates from exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

field. Some of the gas pumped back is CO 2<br />

.<br />

Chevron 357 eng<strong>in</strong>eers here started <strong>in</strong>ject<strong>in</strong>g highpressured<br />

steam to pump out more oil. <strong>The</strong> field,<br />

whose production had slumped to 10,000 barrels a<br />

day <strong>in</strong> the 1960s, now has a daily output of 85,000<br />

barrels.<br />

However, the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of the end of the global oil supply<br />

(peak production year) will almost certa<strong>in</strong>ly have occurred<br />

by the time we reach <strong>2030</strong>. In the meantime, world demand<br />

for oil cont<strong>in</strong>ues to soar, especially <strong>in</strong> the develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />

countries.<br />

<strong>The</strong> problem with oil is that most of it is used for<br />

transportation and no practical means of extract<strong>in</strong>g (or<br />

sequester<strong>in</strong>g) CO 2<br />

at the po<strong>in</strong>t of vehicular emission exists,<br />

nor is thought to be practical <strong>in</strong> the future. <strong>The</strong> future for<br />

the oil <strong>in</strong>dustry may rema<strong>in</strong> bright, but way before <strong>2030</strong><br />

governments, bus<strong>in</strong>esses and consumers must have reduced<br />

sharply their reliance on this energy source.

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