The World in 2030

The World in 2030 169
returns. All technologies will essentially become information
technologies, including energy.
Worldwide energy requirements have been estimated
to double by 2030, far less than anticipated economic
growth, let alone the expected growth in the capability
of technology. The bulk of the additional energy
needed is likely to come from new nanoscale solar,
wind and geothermal technologies. It’s important to
recognize that most energy sources today represent
solar power in one form or another. 322
Could Kurzweil be right? I think it possible that new
technology development may significantly reduce energy
consumption and provide new sources and forms of energy,
but this cannot be relied upon.
For the present, therefore, we are faced with a world
divided by competing claims for fossil fuel energy, a
global economy that is vulnerable to shocks from the
energy market and a world in which nation states use
energy supply (or denial of supply) as a political, powerbroking
weapon.
Under the headline ‘US Ponders Move To Counter
Aggressive Russian Maneuvers’, Erasiannet.org reported in
March 2007:
Washington policymakers are scrambling to develop
tactics that can counter Russia’s aggressive action
aimed at cementing Kremlin control over Caspian
Basin energy and export routes.