The World in 2030

14 The World in 2030
world’s population will increase by at least 50 per cent before
the rate of increase in population growth slows down.
Today there are almost seven billion people alive on Earth.
By 2030 there will be over eight billion and by the middle
of the century there will be at least nine billion. 3 This is the
official ‘median’ estimate of the United Nations Population
Division but many other agencies and organisations believe
that this estimate is far too conservative. The United Nations
itself acknowledges in its alternative ‘high variant’ projection
that it is possible that world population could even double
between now and 2050 – a projection that suggests that by
as early as 2030 (rather then 2050) there will be nine billion
people 4 on the planet.
Other factors that will swell the numbers of humans
consuming the resources of the planet include philanthropic
medical intervention that will begin to eradicate many largescale
killer diseases on the African continent and much
extended life expectancies in the developed world. I
This population explosion will present significant problems
for every nation in the world. As Dr James Canton, 5 an American
futurist who has advised three White House administrations
on the future, writes in his 2006 book ‘The Extreme Future’:
The global management of nine billion people who
demand health, food, work, shelter and security will
I
In the poorest communities large families are an economic and social necessity (to provide cheap
labour and to insure against high rates of infant mortality). Despite widespread philanthropic efforts
to distribute plastic and latex condoms (to protect against disease) such provision is unlikely to slow
climbing birthrates in the foreseeable future.