The World in 2030
The World in 2030 The World in 2030
The World in 2030 109 should be allowed the last word on the IPCC’s global consensus position on climate change: ‘If the IPCC says something, you had better believe it – and then allow for the likelihood that things are far worse than it says they are.’ James Lovelock managed to prod the international community into action over the dangers of CFCs causing ozone depletion. Now there is urgent need for another accord, one far more powerful than the Kyoto Protocol. If we are to stabilise our climate, Kyoto’s target needs to be strengthened twelve times over 215 says Tim Flannery: cuts of 70 per cent by 2050 are required to keep CO 2 at double the pre-industrial level. If we do nothing there will be a doubling of CO 2 in our atmosphere – from three parts per 10,000 that existed in the early 20 th century to six. That has the potential to heat our planet by around 3°C and perhaps by as much as 6°C. If, magically, we were able to stop all greenhouse gas emissions today Earth would continue to heat up from the effect of emissions already generated until the year 2050. CO 2 persists a long time in the atmosphere. Much of the CO 2 released as the world started to recover from the First World War is still warming our planet today. As Tim Flannery puts it: Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution a global warming of 0.63ºC has occurred on our planet, and its principal cause is an increase in atmospheric CO 2 from a round three parts per 10,000 to just
110 The World in 2030 under four. Most of the increase in the burning of fossil fuels has occurred over the last few decades and nine out of the ten warmest years ever recorded have occurred since 1990. 216 In other words, it’s the Baby Boomer (or ‘war baby’) generation that’s really to blame because half of the energy generated since the Industrial Revolution has been consumed in the last twenty years. Only it’s not any single generation’s fault – it’s all of our faults in the developed world and, in the future, the culprit responsible for any further man-made climate change will be the looming and inescapable global population explosion. The 20 th century opened to a world population of a little more than one billion people and closed on a world of six billion. Every one of those six billion is using on average four times as much energy 217 as people did 100 years ago. As I said in my introduction to this section, we are now confronted with the physical proof of climate change and Europe is a good place to go looking for extreme weather. Such extremes are caused by the atmosphere heating up. For every single degree the atmosphere is warmed, world rainfall increases by 1 per cent. 218 This does not sound like much, but the increase is very unevenly distributed. The 1990s were the warmest decade in Britain since records began in the 1660s, with 2006 the hottest year ever, 2005 the second warmest year ever, 1998 the third warmest ever and 2001 the fourth warmest
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110 <strong>The</strong> <strong>World</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>2030</strong><br />
under four. Most of the <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the burn<strong>in</strong>g of<br />
fossil fuels has occurred over the last few decades and<br />
n<strong>in</strong>e out of the ten warmest years ever recorded have<br />
occurred s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990. 216<br />
In other words, it’s the Baby Boomer (or ‘war baby’) generation<br />
that’s really to blame because half of the energy generated<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce the Industrial Revolution has been consumed <strong>in</strong> the<br />
last twenty years.<br />
Only it’s not any s<strong>in</strong>gle generation’s fault – it’s all of our<br />
faults <strong>in</strong> the developed world and, <strong>in</strong> the future, the culprit<br />
responsible for any further man-made climate change will be<br />
the loom<strong>in</strong>g and <strong>in</strong>escapable global population explosion.<br />
<strong>The</strong> 20 th century opened to a world population of a little<br />
more than one billion people and closed on a world of six<br />
billion. Every one of those six billion is us<strong>in</strong>g on average<br />
four times as much energy 217 as people did 100 years ago.<br />
As I said <strong>in</strong> my <strong>in</strong>troduction to this section, we are now<br />
confronted with the physical proof of climate change and<br />
Europe is a good place to go look<strong>in</strong>g for extreme weather.<br />
Such extremes are caused by the atmosphere heat<strong>in</strong>g up. For<br />
every s<strong>in</strong>gle degree the atmosphere is warmed, world ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
<strong>in</strong>creases by 1 per cent. 218 This does not sound like much,<br />
but the <strong>in</strong>crease is very unevenly distributed.<br />
<strong>The</strong> 1990s were the warmest decade <strong>in</strong> Brita<strong>in</strong> s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
records began <strong>in</strong> the 1660s, with 2006 the hottest year ever,<br />
2005 the second warmest year ever, 1998 the third warmest<br />
ever and 2001 the fourth warmest