The World in 2030

The World in 2030 109
should be allowed the last word on the IPCC’s global
consensus position on climate change: ‘If the IPCC says
something, you had better believe it – and then allow for the
likelihood that things are far worse than it says they are.’
James Lovelock managed to prod the international
community into action over the dangers of CFCs causing
ozone depletion. Now there is urgent need for another
accord, one far more powerful than the Kyoto Protocol. If
we are to stabilise our climate, Kyoto’s target needs to be
strengthened twelve times over 215 says Tim Flannery: cuts of
70 per cent by 2050 are required to keep CO 2
at double the
pre-industrial level.
If we do nothing there will be a doubling of CO 2
in our
atmosphere – from three parts per 10,000 that existed in the
early 20 th century to six. That has the potential to heat our
planet by around 3°C and perhaps by as much as 6°C.
If, magically, we were able to stop all greenhouse gas
emissions today Earth would continue to heat up from the
effect of emissions already generated until the year 2050.
CO 2
persists a long time in the atmosphere. Much of the
CO 2
released as the world started to recover from the First
World War is still warming our planet today.
As Tim Flannery puts it:
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution a
global warming of 0.63ºC has occurred on our planet,
and its principal cause is an increase in atmospheric
CO 2
from a round three parts per 10,000 to just