The World in 2030

The World in 2030 101
four degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia,
South America, and southern Africa and, they predicted,
drought would persist for most of the decade (the 2020s) in
critical agricultural regions and in the scarce water resource
regions for major population centres in Europe and eastern
North America.
In addition they postulated that winter storms
and winds would intensify, amplifying the impacts of
the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific,
in particular, would experience enhanced winds. The
document concludes by predicting that abrupt climate
change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as
unstable countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and
secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The
authors added that climate change as a threat to global
stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism.
The George W. Bush White House administration
suppressed the report, 192 but concerned individuals leaked it
to the press and it is now in the public domain.
OK, so that report painted a worst case scenario. What’s
the best predicted outcome of climate change, and what’s
the middle ground? And, more importantly how real and
urgent is the threat?
In August 2001 I travelled to the South Pacific Ocean
to discover for myself the effects of climate change on sea
levels. As a former science journalist I knew the importance
of evaluating evidence at first hand (even if I hadn’t then fully
appreciated the seriously damaging effect of air travel).