AIR POLLUTION – MONITORING MODELLING AND HEALTH

34
Air Pollution – Monitoring, Modelling and Health
Delta O
where: i is the number of simulation
3
O
3
100
i1
i
i
3 _ Base case O3 _ 2015
( O
)
100
(4)
i
3_ Base case
O is the O 3 concentration of base case (2006) for the ith simulation
i
O 3 _ 2015 is the O 3 concentration of strategy in 2015 for the ith simulation,
Standard deviation of O
3
100
i1
O3
i
3
2
3
( O
O
)
99
(5)
i
Where: O3
is the difference in O 3 concentration between the base case and the strategy in
2015 for the ith simulation.
The highest uncertainties of O 3 reduction appear at the same time of the highest O 3
reduction at 1200LT - 1400LT of each day (Fig .17). The highest reduction of O 3
concentration at MA, D2 and HB stations during 6th - 8th Feb are 14ppb, 6.7ppb and 3.9ppb,
respectively. However, the highest uncertainties of O 3 reduction at MA, D2 and HB stations
are 3ppb, 9ppb and 3.5ppb respectively. Therefore, the uncertainties of O 3 reduction are in
general similar to the O 3 reduction. We can not conclude that the change in O 3 concentration
is due to the impact of the emission control plan, because the change can probably be due to
the impact of uncertainties of input parameters.
For the evolution of primary pollutants of the strategy in 2015, the concentrations of NOx in
simulations will increase 7% than those were in 2006. However, the concentrations of CO
and CH 4 decrease around 10% and 8%, respectively than those were in 2006. In conclusion,
there is very little impact of the emission control plan in 2015.
Strategy in 2020: Figure 17 (d, e, f)-lower panels shows that the highest uncertainties of O 3
reduction (
) also appear at the same time of the highest O
O 3 reduction ( O3
) at 1200LT -
3
1400LT of each day. In general, the O 3 concentration in 2020 is lower than the O 3 concentration
in 2006. The highest reduction of O 3 concentration at MA, D2 and HB stations during 6th – 8th
Feb are 23.5ppb, 13.4ppb and 7.8ppb, respectively. While, the highest uncertainties of O 3
reduction at MA, D2 and HB stations are 8.2ppb, 11ppb and 5.1ppb, respectively. The O 3
reduction is higher than the uncertainty of O 3 reduction in all stations. It means that the change
in O 3 concentration is due to the change in emissions from the emission control plan.
For the evolution of primary pollutants of the strategy in 2020, the concentrations of NOx in
simulations will increase 16% than those were in 2006. However, the concentrations of CO
decrease around 7% than those were in 2006. In conclusion, this emission control plan in
2020 has strong impact on the primary and secondary pollutants in HCMC.
5. Summary and key recommendations
In this chapter, the state of the art for studying urban air pollution was reviewed and
discussed. Air in the large cities is polluted, especially in developing cities. Road traffic is the