The Russian Challenge

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Contents About the Authors Acknowledgments Executive Summary and Recommendations Резюме и рекомендации iv v vi ix 1 Introduction 1 2 Russia’s Changed Outlook on the West: From Convergence to Confrontation 2 Roderic Lyne 3 An Enfeebled Economy 14 Philip Hanson 4 A War of Narratives and Arms 23 James Sherr 5 Russian Foreign Policy Towards the West and Western Responses 33 James Nixey 6 Russia’s Toolkit 40 Keir Giles 7 Russian and Western Expectations 50 Andrew Wood Summary of Recommendations 58 Chatham House | iii
About the Authors Keir Giles is an associate fellow of the International Security Department and the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He is also a director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), a group of subject matter experts in Eurasian security. His career began in aviation in the early 1990s, working with Soviet military and paramilitary aircraft in Crimea. He went on to write for several years as Russia correspondent for a range of military and civilian aviation journals, and to join the BBC Monitoring Service, where he specialized in military and economic issues in the former Soviet space. He was seconded to CSRC in 2005 while it was still part of the UK Defence Academy (UKDA), and in 2010 brought key team members into the private sector after the closure of the UKDA’s non-technical research programmes. He now oversees CSRC’s research and publications, while continuing to write and publish on his own specialist area of Russian approaches to conventional, cyber and information warfare. Philip Hanson is an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House and professor emeritus at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies of the University of Birmingham, where he also served as director from 2001 to 2002. He has held positions at the UK Treasury, the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office, the UN Economic Commission for Europe, and Radio Liberty; and has been a visiting professor at Michigan, Harvard, Kyoto, Södertörns and Uppsala universities. He has worked mainly on the Soviet and Russian economies, with occasional excursions into other topics. His books include Regional Economic Change in Russia (co-edited with Michael Bradshaw) and The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Economy. Roderic Lyne, deputy chairman of the Chatham House Council, was a member of the UK diplomatic service from 1970 to 2004, serving as British ambassador to the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2004. From 2005 to 2007 Sir Roderic was a member of the Task Force of the Trilateral Commission on Russia and co-authored, with Strobe Talbott and Koji Watanabe, a report to the Commission entitled Engaging with Russia: The Next Phase. James Nixey is head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. His principal expertise concerns the relationships between Russia and the other post-Soviet states. His publications include The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia; ‘Russia’s Geopolitical Compass: Losing Direction’ in Putin Again: Implications for Russia and the West; and ‘The South Caucasus: Drama on Three Stages’ in A Question of Leadership: America’s Role in a Changed World. James Sherr is an associate fellow and former head, between 2008 and 2011, of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He was a member of the Social Studies Faculty of Oxford University from 1993 to 2012; a fellow of the Conflict Studies Research Centre of the UK Defence Academy from 1995 to 2008; and director of studies of the Royal United Services Institute from 1983 to 1985. He has published extensively on Soviet and Russian military, security and foreign policy, as well as energy security, the Black Sea region and Ukraine’s efforts to deal with Russia, the West and its own domestic problems. Andrew Wood is an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. Since his retirement from the British diplomatic service in 2000, as ambassador in Moscow from the summer of 1995, he has held positions with a number of UK-based companies with Russian interests as well as others active in other former Soviet countries. He co-wrote a book, Change or Decay, with Lilia Shevtsova published by the Carnegie Institute in November 2011 and has been a regular contributor to Chatham House publications, as well as to material produced by The American Interest. iv | Chatham House
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The Russian Challenge

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