A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ...
A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ... A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ...
The use of a GCM analogue model to assess the impact of uncertainty in Amazônian landsurface parameterisation on future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.C. Huntingford [chg@ceh.ac.uk], P.P. Harris [ppha@ceh.ac.uk], J.H.C. Gash [jhg@ceh.ac.uk][CEH Wallingford, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxon., OX10 8BB, UK.]P.M. Cox [peter.cox@metoffice.com], R.A. Betts [richard.betts@metoffice.com][Met Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berks., UK.]J. Marengo [marengo@cptec.gov.br][Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo,Brazil.]Based on Hadley Centre GCM simulations, propagating patterns exist in the way that surfaceclimatology is predicted to vary within a changing climate. Such patterns are observed forsurface temperature, humidity, solar forcing and rainfall, which all influence land-surfaceresponse. The derived spatial patterns are indexed by the global mean land temperature, which,within the resultant “GCM analogue model”, depends upon modelled atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gases.The analogue model has been extended to incorporate an interactive global carbon cycle. Themodel generates a surface climate, consistent with atmospheric CO 2 concentration, which isused to drive a land-surface scheme (MOSES) coupled to a dynamic terrestrial carbon cyclemodel (TRIFFID). Changes in terrestrial carbon are allowed to feedback onto atmospheric CO 2concentration, and a “single point” sub-model represents global atmosphere-ocean CO 2 fluxes.Such inclusion of land and ocean carbon dioxide feedbacks means that a model is available thatmay be driven by a range of carbon emissions scenarios, is based upon the latest GCMsimulations and places high physical representation within the land surface component.Using this computationally quick methodology, the sensitivity of the global carbon cycle touncertainty in the land-surface parameterisation for Amazônia is investigated. Such uncertaintyis directly related to the trajectory in atmospheric CO 2 concentration for a “business as usual”emissions scenario. As such, some measure of “error bars” on predictions of future climatechange can be related directly to uncertainty in Amazônian land-surface response.
- Page 340: Forest Disturbance by Logging and F
- Page 344: Effect of selective logging on biom
- Page 348: Multitemporal Assessment of Selecti
- Page 352: A forest clearing experiment conduc
- Page 356: Manoel Cardoso, George Hurtt, Berri
- Page 360: Coarse Woody Debris in Logged and U
- Page 364: SOIL THERMAL PROPERTIES UNDER FORES
- Page 368: Spatial Pattern of Selective Loggin
- Page 372: SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES AFTER SELE
- Page 376: Future Climate of AmazoniaPRIMARY A
- Page 380: Long-Term Variations of Climate and
- Page 384: Regional aspects of the IPCC Third
- Page 388: ABSTRACT - Second International LBA
- Page 394: Poster title: Global teleconnection
- Page 398: Contrasting conditions of atmospher
- Page 402: 1) Drought in an E. Amazonian rain
- Page 406: 3) Drought in an E. Amazonian rain
- Page 410: The influence of land surface winds
- Page 416: Water use efficiency increases in r
- Page 420: René Poccard-ChapuisCIRAD-Ecopol -
- Page 424: 1Session: Human Dimension, of Globa
- Page 428: Population, Economy and Land Use in
- Page 432: Poster Abstract: A Conceptual Model
- Page 436: Carbon as an economic strategy to r
- Page 440: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF FIRE IN THE B
The use of a GCM analogue model to assess <strong>the</strong> impact of uncertainty in Amazônian landsurface parameteris<strong>at</strong>ion on future <strong>at</strong>mospheric CO 2 concentr<strong>at</strong>ions.C. Huntingford [chg@ceh.ac.uk], P.P. Harris [ppha@ceh.ac.uk], J.H.C. Gash [jhg@ceh.ac.uk][CEH Wallingford, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxon., OX10 8BB, UK.]P.M. Cox [peter.cox@metoffice.com], R.A. Betts [richard.betts@metoffice.com][Met Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berks., UK.]J. Marengo [marengo@cptec.gov.br][Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo,Brazil.]Based on Hadley Centre GCM simul<strong>at</strong>ions, propag<strong>at</strong>ing p<strong>at</strong>terns exist in <strong>the</strong> way th<strong>at</strong> surfaceclim<strong>at</strong>ology is predicted to vary <strong>with</strong>in a changing clim<strong>at</strong>e. Such p<strong>at</strong>terns are observed forsurface temper<strong>at</strong>ure, humidity, solar forcing and rainfall, which all influence land-surfaceresponse. The derived sp<strong>at</strong>ial p<strong>at</strong>terns are indexed by <strong>the</strong> global mean land temper<strong>at</strong>ure, which,<strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> resultant “GCM analogue model”, depends upon modelled <strong>at</strong>mosphericconcentr<strong>at</strong>ions of greenhouse gases.The analogue model has been extended to incorpor<strong>at</strong>e an interactive global carbon cycle. Themodel gener<strong>at</strong>es a surface clim<strong>at</strong>e, consistent <strong>with</strong> <strong>at</strong>mospheric CO 2 concentr<strong>at</strong>ion, which isused to drive a land-surface scheme (MOSES) coupled to a dynamic terrestrial carbon cyclemodel (TRIFFID). Changes in terrestrial carbon are allowed to feedback onto <strong>at</strong>mospheric CO 2concentr<strong>at</strong>ion, and a “single point” sub-model represents global <strong>at</strong>mosphere-ocean CO 2 fluxes.Such inclusion of land and ocean carbon dioxide feedbacks means th<strong>at</strong> a model is available th<strong>at</strong>may be driven by a range of carbon emissions scenarios, is based upon <strong>the</strong> l<strong>at</strong>est GCMsimul<strong>at</strong>ions and places high physical represent<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> land surface component.Using this comput<strong>at</strong>ionally quick methodology, <strong>the</strong> sensitivity of <strong>the</strong> global carbon cycle touncertainty in <strong>the</strong> land-surface parameteris<strong>at</strong>ion for Amazônia is investig<strong>at</strong>ed. Such uncertaintyis directly rel<strong>at</strong>ed to <strong>the</strong> trajectory in <strong>at</strong>mospheric CO 2 concentr<strong>at</strong>ion for a “business as usual”emissions scenario. As such, some measure of “error bars” on predictions of future clim<strong>at</strong>echange can be rel<strong>at</strong>ed directly to uncertainty in Amazônian land-surface response.
Change language