A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ...
A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ...
A Look at Amazon Basin Seasonal Dynamics with the Biophysical ...
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Sp<strong>at</strong>ial and Temporal Drivers of Fire <strong>Dynamics</strong> in <strong>the</strong> <strong>Amazon</strong> <strong>Basin</strong>Aurélie Botta (1) , Jeff Cardille (1) , Elaine Prins (2) , Joleen Feltz (3) , and Kirsten Thonicke (4)1) Center for Sustainability and <strong>the</strong> Global Environment (SAGE), University ofWisconsin-Madison, USA2) NOAA/NESDIS/ORA Advanced S<strong>at</strong>ellite Products Team, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA3) Cooper<strong>at</strong>ive Institute for Meteorological S<strong>at</strong>ellite Studies (CIMSS), University ofWisconsin – Madison, USA4) Potsdam Institute for Clim<strong>at</strong>e Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanySAGE - Institute for Environmental StudiesUniversity of Wisconsin1710 University AvenueMadison, WI 53706 USAadbotta@facstaff.wisc.eduFire occurrence is likely to increase <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> deforest<strong>at</strong>ion of <strong>the</strong> <strong>Amazon</strong> basin.Understanding and being able to predict fire dynamics is even more importantconsidering its impact on veget<strong>at</strong>ion dynamics, carbon and nutrient cycles, and<strong>at</strong>mospheric composition. This paper proposes to examine <strong>the</strong> processes explaining <strong>the</strong>current sp<strong>at</strong>ial and temporal distribution of fires in <strong>the</strong> <strong>Amazon</strong> <strong>Basin</strong> by combining mid-1990’s observ<strong>at</strong>ions of fire derived from <strong>the</strong> GOES s<strong>at</strong>ellite <strong>with</strong> ecosystem modelingresults incorpor<strong>at</strong>ing both agricultural land-use and changes in flammability due toclim<strong>at</strong>e and fuel load vari<strong>at</strong>ions.In several st<strong>at</strong>es, we found a significant correl<strong>at</strong>ion between <strong>the</strong> sp<strong>at</strong>ial distributions ofobserved fires and land use. Never<strong>the</strong>less, when considering <strong>the</strong> entire basin thisrel<strong>at</strong>ionship is not as pronounced due to land use d<strong>at</strong>a set biases and inadequ<strong>at</strong>e s<strong>at</strong>ellitesp<strong>at</strong>ial and temporal resolution needed to detect all fires. When comparing <strong>the</strong> sp<strong>at</strong>ialdistributions of fires in 1995 to <strong>the</strong> different land use types maps, planted pasture shows<strong>the</strong> best agreement <strong>with</strong> fire occurrence; cropland is often not a significant predictor, andn<strong>at</strong>ural pasture has an intermedi<strong>at</strong>e correl<strong>at</strong>ion. The main fe<strong>at</strong>ures of <strong>the</strong> 1997 minus1995 differences of fire distribution can be explained by clim<strong>at</strong>ic anomalies. The strong1997 El Niño event had a significant impact on <strong>the</strong> numbers and p<strong>at</strong>terns of fire,especially in Bolivia and around Manaus where <strong>the</strong> associ<strong>at</strong>ed precipit<strong>at</strong>ion changes werelarge. The 1997 minus 1995 differences in fire dynamics in regions <strong>with</strong> small changesin clim<strong>at</strong>e are probably <strong>the</strong> result of anthropogenic factors. Inter-annual differences inclim<strong>at</strong>e factors, coupled <strong>with</strong> maps of land use, provide a strong basis for understandingand potentially predicting fire dynamics in this rapidly changing region.
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