Wind Erosion in Western Queensland Australia

Modelling Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion in Western ... - Ninti One Modelling Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion in Western ... - Ninti One

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Chapter 8 – Conclusionsmodels are not dissimilar. Maps of u *t and land erodibility modelled by Lu (1999) andAUSLEM for western Queensland show similarities across the Channel Country. It would beconstructive to compare the assessments in cross-model validation exercises. Themethodology for collecting field surveys of land erodibility described in Chapter 6 wouldsupport these comparisons and provide additional data for validating models like IWEMS.Finally, this research has clearly demonstrated the requirement for further studies to assessspatial and temporal patterns in land susceptibility to wind erosion. Dynamic changes in landerodibility like those identified by AUSLEM must be considered in the context of modellingregional to global scale dust emission and transport (e.g. Mahowald et al., 2003a). Grini et al.(2005) sought to identify suitable methods for characterising erodibility patterns in globaldust source areas. The frameworks for modelling soil and land erodibility presented in thisthesis support that research, and there is significant potential for integrating the methods andfindings of this research into such studies.8.4 Research LimitationsThe major limitations of this research relate to three main areas. They are: 1) the availabilityof robust models to predict temporal changes in soil erodibility, and the lack of quantitativedata with which to parameterise such models; 2) spatial scale effects on model performancein heterogeneous landscapes; and 3) the availability of data suitable for model validation.1. The accuracy of AUSLEM at spatial scales less than ~50 km 2 was severely affected bythe absence of a robust scheme to predict temporal changes in soil erodibility. This issuebecame evident when analysing trends in the model output at locations with similarvegetation cover but different soil textural attributes (Chapter 5). Analysis of the modeloutput was therefore restricted to the landscape (10 3 km 2 ) to regional (10 4 km 2 ) scales.While AUSLEM output accuracy at smaller scales is affected by the accuracy of itsAussie GRASS inputs, the addition of a soil erodibility scheme is likely to significantlyimprove model performance. It would also allow for the analysis of model output at timescales less than one month, at which variations in soil erodibility are an important controlon land erodibility dynamics.198

Chapter 8 – Conclusions2. Spatial scaling issues were found to adversely affect both model performance and effortsto validate the model output using field assessments of land erodibility. This issue wasfound to be particularly relevant to the performance of AUSLEM in the Mulga Lands, tothe east of the study area. In this bioregion the distribution of tree cover is a dominantcontrol on land erodibility. Neither the model input data nor model frameworkaccommodated sub-grid scale variations in vegetation cover. This meant that modelpredictions of land erodibility were largely driven by the model tree cover threshold (of20%) and accuracy of the 30 x 30 m resolution foliage projective cover (FPC) data inrepresenting the distribution and cover of woody vegetation. Field observations suggestthat AUSLEM was unable to detect local variations in land erodibility in this bioregion.This became a significant problem when comparing field assessments of land erodibilityto AUSLEM output for model validation. Because neither the model nor the fieldassessments specifically accounted for vegetation distribution effects on erodibility, agood measure of model performance could not be obtained in the Mulga Lands. Furtherresearch is required to incorporate vegetation distribution effects into the model.3. The lack of quantitative estimates of land susceptibility to wind erosion affected efforts tovalidate AUSLEM. Model validation was therefore dependent on a comparison of timeseriestrends in model output with observational records of dust events. While thecomparison demonstrated that the model works well in the western portion of the studyregion, it did so because the dust event records at the meteorological stations in that areawere representative of local dust entrainment. The records at the western stationstherefore provided a good indicator of temporal changes in land erodibility around thestations. Poor agreement between the model output and dust event records at the easternstations was attributed to the fact that the dust events there did not provide a goodindicator of local conditions. Thus, model performance to the east of the study area couldnot reasonably be assessed using that methodology. While an approach was developed tocollect field assessments of land erodibility across the study area, application of the datain validating AUSLEM was affected by the availability of data that could be used as inputto the model at an appropriate spatial resolution for comparison with the fieldassessments. It was also affected by the fact that the field observations were made on acategorical basis and then compared to a continuous and non-linear range of model outputvalues. This research limitation can be addressed by: refining the field assessmentmethodology so that visual observations are recorded on a continuous scale; and making199

Chapter 8 – Conclusions2. Spatial scal<strong>in</strong>g issues were found to adversely affect both model performance and effortsto validate the model output us<strong>in</strong>g field assessments of land erodibility. This issue wasfound to be particularly relevant to the performance of AUSLEM <strong>in</strong> the Mulga Lands, tothe east of the study area. In this bioregion the distribution of tree cover is a dom<strong>in</strong>antcontrol on land erodibility. Neither the model <strong>in</strong>put data nor model frameworkaccommodated sub-grid scale variations <strong>in</strong> vegetation cover. This meant that modelpredictions of land erodibility were largely driven by the model tree cover threshold (of20%) and accuracy of the 30 x 30 m resolution foliage projective cover (FPC) data <strong>in</strong>represent<strong>in</strong>g the distribution and cover of woody vegetation. Field observations suggestthat AUSLEM was unable to detect local variations <strong>in</strong> land erodibility <strong>in</strong> this bioregion.This became a significant problem when compar<strong>in</strong>g field assessments of land erodibilityto AUSLEM output for model validation. Because neither the model nor the fieldassessments specifically accounted for vegetation distribution effects on erodibility, agood measure of model performance could not be obta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> the Mulga Lands. Furtherresearch is required to <strong>in</strong>corporate vegetation distribution effects <strong>in</strong>to the model.3. The lack of quantitative estimates of land susceptibility to w<strong>in</strong>d erosion affected efforts tovalidate AUSLEM. Model validation was therefore dependent on a comparison of timeseriestrends <strong>in</strong> model output with observational records of dust events. While thecomparison demonstrated that the model works well <strong>in</strong> the western portion of the studyregion, it did so because the dust event records at the meteorological stations <strong>in</strong> that areawere representative of local dust entra<strong>in</strong>ment. The records at the western stationstherefore provided a good <strong>in</strong>dicator of temporal changes <strong>in</strong> land erodibility around thestations. Poor agreement between the model output and dust event records at the easternstations was attributed to the fact that the dust events there did not provide a good<strong>in</strong>dicator of local conditions. Thus, model performance to the east of the study area couldnot reasonably be assessed us<strong>in</strong>g that methodology. While an approach was developed tocollect field assessments of land erodibility across the study area, application of the data<strong>in</strong> validat<strong>in</strong>g AUSLEM was affected by the availability of data that could be used as <strong>in</strong>putto the model at an appropriate spatial resolution for comparison with the fieldassessments. It was also affected by the fact that the field observations were made on acategorical basis and then compared to a cont<strong>in</strong>uous and non-l<strong>in</strong>ear range of model outputvalues. This research limitation can be addressed by: ref<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g the field assessmentmethodology so that visual observations are recorded on a cont<strong>in</strong>uous scale; and mak<strong>in</strong>g199

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