Wind Erosion in Western Queensland Australia
Modelling Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion in Western ... - Ninti One Modelling Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion in Western ... - Ninti One
Chapter 7 – Land Erodibility Dynamics 1980-2006Country and Mitchell Grass Downs, but there is no correlation between the PDO and erodibleland cover in the Simpson-Strzelecki Dunefields.Table 7.1 Correlation (r 2 ) between mean annual rainfall, Troup SOI, PDO and modelled landerodibility for the four study area bioregions, based on the 27 year simulation. Significant correlations(p < 0.05) are boldfacedBioregion Rainfall SOI PDOChannel Country -0.19 -0.05 0.28Mitchell Grass Downs -0.23 0.09 0.36Mulga Lands -0.48 -0.38 0.56Simpson-Strzelecki Dunefields -0.09 0.02 -0.16Figure 7.6 presents a plot of mean annual rainfall and the Troup SOI for the four study areabioregions. The data are used to interpret mechanisms driving the temporal patterns andcorrelations between land erodibility, rainfall and the climate indices (Table 7.1).Figure 7.6 Graph of the Troup SOI and mean annual rainfall for the four study area bioregions:Channel Country (CC); Mitchel Grass Downs (MGD); Mulga Lands (ML); and Simpson-StrzeleckiDundefields (SSD). *Years are classified into ENSO phases after McKeon et al. (2004)In the Mulga Lands peaks in land erodibility coincide with negative SOI phases in 1982,1986, 1992-94 and from 2002-06 (Figure 7.6). The peaks are consistent with those yearsreceiving low annual rainfall (
Chapter 7 – Land Erodibility Dynamics 1980-2006are consistent with those years receiving annual rainfall >400 mm. However, the correlationsbetween rainfall, SOI and land erodibility in the Mulga Lands are affected by a lag responsein land erodibility change relative to shifts in the SOI phase (positive to negative). This isevident in the transition from the wet La Niña conditions from 1988-90 to the dry El Niñoevent from 1991-94. A mechanism behind the lag is the steady rather than rapid increase inannual rainfall from 1988-90, and sustained vegetation cover over the bioregion until thedrought in 1992. Short (~1 year) El Niño events, for example in 1997, do not necessarilycause a reduction in rainfall. Land erodibility may therefore continue to increase or decreasethrough these periods in line with trends determined by antecedent rainfall conditions.The Mitchell Grass Downs, Channel Country and Simpson-Strzelecki Desert bioregions areless sensitive than the Mulga Lands to inter-annual rainfall and ENSO variability (Table 7.1).These bioregions appear to be more sensitive to intense and persistent (multi-year) drought.This explains the stronger positive correlations of land erodibility with the PDO in theChannel Country and Mitchell Grass Downs. The lower sensitivity of these bioregions tointer-annual climate variability stems from the nature of climate variability in these regions,and their vegetation and soil characteristics.While the Mitchell Grass Downs experiences high inter-annual rainfall variability (Figure7.6), rainfall across this bioregion is adequate to sustain regionally high vegetation coverlevels and low land erodibility (Figures 7.2 and 7.5). Peaks in land erodibility in the MitchellGrass Downs occur in the north-western half of the bioregion. This area, between Boulia andUrandangie, receives lower annual rainfall than the eastern half of the bioregion and issubsequently more sensitive to drought (e.g. 1986-1989). While rainfall has a strongassociation with El Niño events in the Mitchell Grass Downs (McKeon et al., 2004),variability over the eastern half of the bioregion is not sufficient to induce regular regionalscale (10 4 km 2 ) changes in land erodibility that would provide strong correlations with eitherrainfall or the SOI.Like the Mitchell Grass Downs, land erodibility dynamics in the Channel Country reflectrainfall variability and the PDO more than ENSO phase changes (Table 7.1). The gradualincrease in land erodibility in the Channel Country between 1982 and 1988 is consistent withthe sustained ‘neutral’ ENSO conditions and intensification of the PDO (cooling of SeaSurface Temperatures in the tropical West Pacific). The bioregion received
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Chapter 7 – Land Erodibility Dynamics 1980-2006are consistent with those years receiv<strong>in</strong>g annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall >400 mm. However, the correlationsbetween ra<strong>in</strong>fall, SOI and land erodibility <strong>in</strong> the Mulga Lands are affected by a lag response<strong>in</strong> land erodibility change relative to shifts <strong>in</strong> the SOI phase (positive to negative). This isevident <strong>in</strong> the transition from the wet La Niña conditions from 1988-90 to the dry El Niñoevent from 1991-94. A mechanism beh<strong>in</strong>d the lag is the steady rather than rapid <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong>annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall from 1988-90, and susta<strong>in</strong>ed vegetation cover over the bioregion until thedrought <strong>in</strong> 1992. Short (~1 year) El Niño events, for example <strong>in</strong> 1997, do not necessarilycause a reduction <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Land erodibility may therefore cont<strong>in</strong>ue to <strong>in</strong>crease or decreasethrough these periods <strong>in</strong> l<strong>in</strong>e with trends determ<strong>in</strong>ed by antecedent ra<strong>in</strong>fall conditions.The Mitchell Grass Downs, Channel Country and Simpson-Strzelecki Desert bioregions areless sensitive than the Mulga Lands to <strong>in</strong>ter-annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall and ENSO variability (Table 7.1).These bioregions appear to be more sensitive to <strong>in</strong>tense and persistent (multi-year) drought.This expla<strong>in</strong>s the stronger positive correlations of land erodibility with the PDO <strong>in</strong> theChannel Country and Mitchell Grass Downs. The lower sensitivity of these bioregions to<strong>in</strong>ter-annual climate variability stems from the nature of climate variability <strong>in</strong> these regions,and their vegetation and soil characteristics.While the Mitchell Grass Downs experiences high <strong>in</strong>ter-annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall variability (Figure7.6), ra<strong>in</strong>fall across this bioregion is adequate to susta<strong>in</strong> regionally high vegetation coverlevels and low land erodibility (Figures 7.2 and 7.5). Peaks <strong>in</strong> land erodibility <strong>in</strong> the MitchellGrass Downs occur <strong>in</strong> the north-western half of the bioregion. This area, between Boulia andUrandangie, receives lower annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall than the eastern half of the bioregion and issubsequently more sensitive to drought (e.g. 1986-1989). While ra<strong>in</strong>fall has a strongassociation with El Niño events <strong>in</strong> the Mitchell Grass Downs (McKeon et al., 2004),variability over the eastern half of the bioregion is not sufficient to <strong>in</strong>duce regular regionalscale (10 4 km 2 ) changes <strong>in</strong> land erodibility that would provide strong correlations with eitherra<strong>in</strong>fall or the SOI.Like the Mitchell Grass Downs, land erodibility dynamics <strong>in</strong> the Channel Country reflectra<strong>in</strong>fall variability and the PDO more than ENSO phase changes (Table 7.1). The gradual<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> land erodibility <strong>in</strong> the Channel Country between 1982 and 1988 is consistent withthe susta<strong>in</strong>ed ‘neutral’ ENSO conditions and <strong>in</strong>tensification of the PDO (cool<strong>in</strong>g of SeaSurface Temperatures <strong>in</strong> the tropical West Pacific). The bioregion received