Bt Brinjal The scope and adequacy of the GEAC environmental risk assessment
Bt Brinjal: The scope and adequacy of the GEAC ... - Down To Earth
Bt Brinjal: The scope and adequacy of the GEAC ... - Down To Earth
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52 <strong>Bt</strong> <strong>Brinjal</strong>: <strong>The</strong> <strong>GEAC</strong> <strong>environmental</strong> <strong>risk</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><strong>The</strong>se values for <strong>the</strong> yield benefit <strong>of</strong> <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal are significantly less than thosesuggested by Mahyco <strong>and</strong> EC-II.<strong>The</strong> main reasons for this are that (1) Mahyco <strong>and</strong> EC-II did not consider how EE-1 <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal would be compatible withpresent brinjal production systems,<strong>and</strong> (2) <strong>the</strong>y assumed that yieldsTable 4. Estimated expected maximum yield benefit from hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal to farmers inIndia based on a comparison to a similar non-<strong>Bt</strong> brinjal hybrid without any control <strong>of</strong>obtained under controlled experimentalBFSB, using data from <strong>the</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LST, yield gaps, <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r factors related to Indianconditions accurately estimated yields production systems described above.on farm <strong>and</strong> ignored <strong>the</strong> scientificLocation Size <strong>of</strong> farm Proportion Maximum potentialliterature on yield gaps. Moreover, <strong>the</strong>y<strong>of</strong> farmers yield benefit (q/ha)did not adjust <strong>the</strong>ir estimates to reflectMST LST<strong>the</strong>ir own data. <strong>The</strong>ir estimates areWest Bengal, Mostly small-scale0.61 0 0based on <strong>the</strong> MST data. <strong>The</strong> newer Orissa, Bihar resource-poorLST data shows significantly lower Rest <strong>of</strong> India Large-scale commercial 0.04 84.2 43.7potential yield benefits from EE-1 <strong>Bt</strong>brinjal, yet <strong>the</strong>ir estimates have notbeen adjusted downward.Rest <strong>of</strong> India Small-scale resource-poor 0.35 13.9 7.2Even so, <strong>the</strong> low estimates presented here are likely to overestimate <strong>the</strong> actual yield benefits to India as a whole because itis unlikely that all farmers will adopt EE-1 hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal technology. <strong>The</strong>re are three factors that may limit adoption. Asdiscussed above, hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal may not fit well with some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> large-scale commercial production systems that presentlyrely on open-pollinated varieties (OPVs), <strong>and</strong> is unlikely to fit into small-scale resource-poor production. In addition, hybrid<strong>Bt</strong> brinjal may be too costly for some farmers to afford to use. Lastly, <strong>the</strong> yield <strong>risk</strong> <strong>of</strong> using hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal may deter manyfarmers from adopting it. About 16% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> field trials showed hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal having no yield advantage over non-<strong>Bt</strong> brinjaleven when non-<strong>Bt</strong> brinjal had no control <strong>of</strong> BFSB. Many farmers are <strong>risk</strong>-averse <strong>and</strong> may not adopt hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal if <strong>the</strong> <strong>risk</strong><strong>of</strong> no benefit is too high.In addition, <strong>the</strong> estimates are likely to be overestimates because <strong>the</strong> relevant control comparison for farmers is <strong>the</strong> <strong>Bt</strong>variety against <strong>the</strong> best non-<strong>Bt</strong> variety being used in a region. <strong>The</strong> control comparison used in <strong>the</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LST was <strong>the</strong> <strong>Bt</strong>variety against a genetically similar non-<strong>Bt</strong> variety. <strong>The</strong> best non-<strong>Bt</strong> variety in a region is expected to have higher yields than agenetically similar non-<strong>Bt</strong> control variety used in <strong>the</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LST experiments, <strong>and</strong> this also will reduce <strong>the</strong> estimated yieldbenefit <strong>of</strong> hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal. This serves to reiterate previous points about <strong>the</strong> limitations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data from <strong>the</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LSTexperiments. One should expect a large yield gap <strong>and</strong> refrain from making any inferences about which hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal varietyis best in a region.<strong>The</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LST were designed to answer <strong>the</strong> narrow question: how much does <strong>the</strong> EE-1 <strong>Bt</strong> transgene, by itself <strong>and</strong> allo<strong>the</strong>r things being equal (<strong>the</strong> ceteris paribis assumption), improve agronomic performance. This is not <strong>the</strong> relevant questionfor a farmer. A farmer is interested in whe<strong>the</strong>r hybrid <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal will “improve” things compared to what <strong>the</strong> farmer ispresently doing. For farmers, all things are not equal, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> concern is a comparison <strong>of</strong> brinjal varieties (<strong>of</strong>ten under unequalconditions), not merely <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> transgene. <strong>The</strong> narrow framing <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> MST <strong>and</strong> LST limits <strong>the</strong> broader applicability <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>se data to problems <strong>of</strong> interest to <strong>the</strong> farmer or <strong>the</strong> Indian government.Finding 26. Insecticide use might decline in large-scale commercial <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal production systems by an average <strong>of</strong>6.5 applications. However, o<strong>the</strong>r factors may modulate this substantially, <strong>and</strong> new secondary pests will result in moreinsecticide use. It is not possible to estimate how insecticide use might change if <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal were used by small-scaleresource-poor farmers.Ano<strong>the</strong>r expected advantage <strong>of</strong> <strong>Bt</strong> brinjal is a reduction in insecticide use. A reduction in <strong>the</strong> need for insecticide