Original
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)l4 GENERAL REVIEW OP TTTE YEARmade in the Constitutional Compact as to the conditionsunder which the Great President must vacate office.The retirement of the Great President is not within theright of a portion of military men to demand. Ifsuch a precedent be created all successors to theoffice of the Great President, no matter who theymay be, will be liable to face the opposition of themilitary men of a few provinces, who may league together and demand by force of arms their retirement.Disturbances will then he continuous, and the disasterof internal strife that has been prevailing for manyyears in Mexico will result. A step that would havethis effect is, therefore, not to be expected of any onewho has any spark of humanity and patriotism inhim."What the outcome will be it isTheimpossibleFuture to -..- i J ,-< ,say. Constitutional development in Chinalias sustained a serious shock, but, as suggested at thebeginning of this article, the temporary ill effects may leadto better political health in the future. If the Chinesepeople have learnt from experience they will avoid theextremes to which they have run since 1J)12. Advancedradicalism and an autocratic Parliament consisting of immature and inexperienced politicians are just as likely tobring the country to grief as an autocratic President orEmperor. The happy mean, a system by which Presidentand Parliament share the power and the responsibility, iswhat China must discover if she is not. to become a secondMexico, useless to herself and a menace to her neighbours.
CHAPTERIVECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL CONDITIONS INCHINA DURING i9J5Julean ArnoldGradually the foreign trade of China isChina s Fcre n assilmm S a position of commanding import -Trade ance iu her economic and commercial life.During the past twenty-live years China sforeign trade has increased from Tls. 250,000,000 toTls. 900,000,000. Thus at present China s foreign trademay be considered as equivalent to between two andthree taels per capita for her population. That of Japanis from eight to ten times as great per capita, while that ofthe United States istwenty-five limes as great. Both Japanand the United States have profited enormously by the present European War. Unfortunately, China was not preparedto avail herself of the opportunities \vhich the European Waroffered her. With silver exchange favouring export trade andwith many of China s products in demand by foreign countriesbecause of the War, the year 1915 should have been a banner year for the China export trade; in fact, it should havewitnessed an increase of nearly one hundred per cent inChina export trade and, like Japan, China should have hadto her credit at the end of 1915 a favorable trade balance ofupwards of Tls. 100,000.000, which would have gone a longway toward assuring the country of financial independence.Probably the greatest factor which hasLack of Shipping preven t ed China s availing herself of thisFacilities . ., 1.1 isignal opportunity, was the dearth in oceangoing ships. Tens of thousands of tons of Chinese cargoin demand abroad could not find space for shipping.Tens of thousands of tons, even if it could find the space,could not have been shipped at the advanced freightrates, as the average increase of five hundred per cent inrates made the cheap, bulky materials which form a largeproportion of China s export trade too costly to ship abroad.
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)l4 GENERAL REVIEW OP TTTE YEARmade in the Constitutional Compact as to the conditionsunder which the Great President must vacate office.The retirement of the Great President is not within theright of a portion of military men to demand. Ifsuch a precedent be created all successors to theoffice of the Great President, no matter who theymay be, will be liable to face the opposition of themilitary men of a few provinces, who may league together and demand by force of arms their retirement.Disturbances will then he continuous, and the disasterof internal strife that has been prevailing for manyyears in Mexico will result. A step that would havethis effect is, therefore, not to be expected of any onewho has any spark of humanity and patriotism inhim."What the outcome will be it isTheimpossibleFuture to -..- i J ,-< ,say. Constitutional development in Chinalias sustained a serious shock, but, as suggested at thebeginning of this article, the temporary ill effects may leadto better political health in the future. If the Chinesepeople have learnt from experience they will avoid theextremes to which they have run since 1J)12. Advancedradicalism and an autocratic Parliament consisting of immature and inexperienced politicians are just as likely tobring the country to grief as an autocratic President orEmperor. The happy mean, a system by which Presidentand Parliament share the power and the responsibility, iswhat China must discover if she is not. to become a secondMexico, useless to herself and a menace to her neighbours.
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