Family Planning in Asia and the Pacific - International Council on ...

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ecause of a lack of knowledge of contraceptive methods orong>theong> ong>inong>ability to obtaong>inong> ong>theong> necessary supplies ong>andong> services.Ability is a multidimensional concept that ong>inong>cludes notonly ong>theong> knowledge of a contraceptive method but also ong>theong>means of obtaong>inong>ong>inong>g ong>theong> method, such as ong>theong> availability oftransport to a service facility or ong>theong> money to pay for ong>theong>method. ong>Familyong> plannong>inong>g programmes generally focus onability or access, somewhat less on willong>inong>gness ong>andong> muchless on readong>inong>ess – which may be considered outside ong>theong>domaong>inong> of family plannong>inong>g as normally understood.One advantage of ong>theong> R-W-A conceptualization is that datacollected ong>inong> DHS can be used to measure ong>theong> impact of eachof ong>theong> prerequisites. Furong>theong>rmore, ong>inong>dividual respondentscan be classified accordong>inong>g to which of ong>theong> three groupsong>theong>y comprise, ong>andong> ong>theong> results can be aggregated at ong>theong>national or subnational level.Purpose of this paperIn ong>theong> present paper an attempt is made to place recentDHS results ong>inong>to ong>theong> framework proposed by Lesthaegheong>andong> Vong>andong>erhoeft (2001) ong>inong> order to contribute to a betterunderstong>andong>ong>inong>g of low contraceptive use, unmet need ong>andong> ong>theong>stalled fertility transition ong>inong> some ong>Pacificong> islong>andong> countriesong>andong> territories. At ong>theong> same time, ong>theong> paper explores someof ong>theong> socio-economic factors that have been measured ong>inong>recent DHS that may account for variations ong>inong> contraceptiveuse ong>andong> unmet need among different groups. Fong>inong>ally, ong>theong>paper considers some of ong>theong> “macrolevel” factors that mightaccount for variations ong>inong> ong>theong> level ong>andong> trends ong>inong> fertilityamong ong>Pacificong> islong>andong> countries ong>andong> territories. The overallpurpose is to contribute to ong>theong> development of strategiesto reduce unmet need for contraception ong>inong> accordance withong>theong> prong>inong>ciples laid out ong>inong> ong>theong> ICPD Programme of Action.By analysong>inong>g ong>theong> socio-economic factors at ong>theong> micro- ong>andong>macrolevels, it is possible that ong>theong> specific role of familyplannong>inong>g programmes can be more precisely stated.The geographical ong>andong>demographic contextThe islong>andong> countries ong>andong> territories of ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> are shownong>inong> Figure 1. The ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>s, togeong>theong>r with Australia ong>andong>New Zealong>andong>, make up ong>theong> region conventionally knownas “Oceania”. The ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>s are also conventionallydivided ong>inong>to three subregions: Melanesia, Micronesia ong>andong>Polynesia. These divisions reflect both ethno-culturalvariations ong>andong> geographical characteristics. Melanesianpeople are descendants of ong>theong> very first settlement of ong>theong>ong>Pacificong>, which commenced approximately 40,000 yearsago ong>inong> New Guong>inong>ea. Melanesians, along with more recentmigrants, occupy ong>theong> largest islong>andong> countries ong>andong> territoriesof Fiji, New Caledonia, Papua New Guong>inong>ea, SolomonIslong>andong>s ong>andong> Vanuatu. Micronesians are descendants of amuch more recent settlement pattern from South-Eastong>Asiaong> (primarily ong>theong> Philippong>inong>es ong>andong> Taiwan) ong>andong> occupyong>theong> islong>andong>s north of ong>theong> equator ong>andong> spread across ong>theong>ong>Pacificong> on an east-west axis. Most of ong>theong> islong>andong>s occupiedby Micronesians are small ong>andong> of atoll formation, althoughsome are of volcanic origong>inong>. Polynesians are descendantsof people who entered ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> from South-East ong>Asiaong>5,000 years ago ong>andong> occupied ong>theong> islong>andong>s located from ong>theong>central ong>Pacificong> east of Fiji to Pitcairn Islong>andong> ong>inong> ong>theong> easternextremity of ong>theong> region 3 .Although origong>inong>ally formulated by nong>inong>eteenth centuryethnographers ong>andong> explorers, ong>theong> distong>inong>ction between ong>theong>subregions of ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> remaong>inong> important today due tovariations ong>inong> social organization, culture ong>andong> geography.Most importantly for population issues, ong>theong> Melanesiansubgroup makes up ong>theong> largest proportion of ong>theong> long>andong> areaof ong>theong> overall ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>s region. In general, Melanesiais a resource-rich area, Polynesia less so ong>andong> Micronesiamuch less so. The different resource endowments of ong>theong>subregions have played a significant role ong>inong> ong>theong> way ong>inong> whichpopulation issues, ong>inong>cludong>inong>g fertility, have been addressed– both ong>inong> traditional times ong>andong> ong>inong> ong>theong> modern era.The total population of ong>theong> 22 countries ong>andong> territories ofong>theong> ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>s ong>inong> Oceania is currently 9.85 million ong>andong>is growong>inong>g at approximately 1.9 per cent per year (Table1). At this growth rate, ong>theong> population will reach 10.0million by ong>theong> end of 2011. Current projections suggestthat ong>theong> population of ong>theong> region could ong>inong>crease by anoong>theong>r6.5 million by 2050 before stabilizong>inong>g (Secretariat of ong>theong>ong>Pacificong> Community, 2010).Population growth rates vary widely between countriesong>andong> subregions. At ong>theong> country level, ong>theong> highest growthrates are occurrong>inong>g ong>inong> ong>theong> Melanesian countries of PapuaNew Guong>inong>ea (2.2%) Solomon Islong>andong>s (2.7%) ong>andong> Vanuatu(2.5%). These three countries currently account for 89per cent of ong>theong> population growth of ong>theong> larger region. Atong>theong> oong>theong>r end of ong>theong> scale are ong>theong> Polynesian countries ofong>theong> Cook Islong>andong>s, Samoa, Tonga ong>andong> Tuvalu, with annualgrowth rates of less than 0.5 per cent. Some Micronesiancountries, such as ong>theong> Federated States of Micronesia,Marshall Islong>andong>s ong>andong> Palau also have low growth rates.At ong>theong> subregional level it is clear that Melanesia accountsfor most population growth ong>inong> ong>theong> larger region (92.5%),ong>andong> Melanesian growth is domong>inong>ated by ong>theong> largest countryong>inong> ong>theong> ong>Pacificong>: Papua New Guong>inong>ea. Future populationgrowth ong>inong> ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> will be concentrated ong>inong> ong>theong> Melanesiansubregion. Population growth ong>inong> ong>theong> Micronesian ong>andong>Polynesian subregions is currently concentrated ong>inong> ong>theong>territories of Guam ong>andong> French Polynesia, respectively. Theoong>theong>r countries ong>inong> ong>theong>se subregions have low populationgrowth, with ong>theong> exception of Kiribati ong>andong> Nauru.66

FigureFigure1Oceania ong>andong> ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>sA distong>inong>ctive feature of ong>theong> demography of Micronesiaong>andong> Polynesia, which is relevant to ong>theong> subject of thispaper, is ong>theong> relationship between natural ong>inong>crease ong>andong>population growth. With some exceptions, most of ong>theong>countries that have low population growth are subject tosignificant external migration, which offsets a considerableproportion of ong>theong> natural ong>inong>crease. In ong>theong> Federated Statesof Micronesia, Samoa ong>andong> Tonga, for example, externalmigration offsets about 80 per cent of natural ong>inong>crease; ong>inong>Marshall Islong>andong>s, 90 per cent of current natural ong>inong>crease isoffset by external migration. The rate of natural ong>inong>creaseong>inong> ong>theong>se countries remaong>inong>s about 2 per cent per year. Inong>theong> absence of external migration flows ong>theong>se countriesong>andong> territories would be subject to significant populationong>inong>crease ong>inong> ong>theong> comong>inong>g years.The extent of urbanization ong>inong> ong>theong> region encompassong>inong>g ong>theong>ong>Pacificong> islong>andong>s varies widely. Some countries ong>andong> territories(Guam, Nauru ong>andong> ong>theong> Norong>theong>rn Mariana Islong>andong>s) areclassified as 90-100 per cent urban. In ong>theong> larger Melanesiancountries of Papua New Guong>inong>ea ong>andong> Solomon Islong>andong>s ong>theong>level of urbanization is low, with more than 80 per centof ong>theong> population livong>inong>g ong>inong> rural areas, mostly ong>inong> villagesalong traditional long>inong>es. Samoa ong>andong> Tonga, ong>inong> Polynesia,also have a low level of urbanization, with 79 ong>andong> 77per cent, respectively, of ong>theong> population beong>inong>g classifiedas rural. Anoong>theong>r situation is represented by ong>theong> CookIslong>andong>s, Kiribati, Marshall Islong>andong>s ong>andong> Tuvalu, ong>inong> whichbetween 44 ong>andong> 65 per cent of ong>theong> population is livong>inong>gon one relatively urbanized islong>andong> (usually ong>theong> centre ofgovernment), with ong>theong> balance distributed across a numberof widely scattered islong>andong>s.With ong>theong> exception of ong>theong> larger Melanesian countries,ong>Pacificong> islong>andong> countries have high social ong>inong>dicators relativeto ong>theong> level of per capita ong>inong>come (Table 2). Several countrieshave life expectancy above 70 years ong>andong> high literacy. Theong>inong>cidence of absolute poverty is low ong>inong> ong>theong> ong>Pacificong> but“basic-needs” poverty ranges from 13 per cent ong>inong> Niue to50 per cent ong>inong> Kiribati. Access to improved water sourcesong>andong> sanitation is good ong>inong> most countries but more thanhalf ong>theong> population of ong>theong> Federated States of Micronesia,Kiribati, Papua New Guong>inong>ea ong>andong> Solomon Islong>andong>s lackadequate sanitation.67

ecause of a lack of knowledge of c<strong>on</strong>traceptive methods or<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ability to obta<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> necessary supplies <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> services.Ability is a multidimensi<strong>on</strong>al c<strong>on</strong>cept that <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>cludes not<strong>on</strong>ly <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> knowledge of a c<strong>on</strong>traceptive method but also <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>means of obta<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> method, such as <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> availability oftransport to a service facility or <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> m<strong>on</strong>ey to pay for <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>method. <str<strong>on</strong>g>Family</str<strong>on</strong>g> plann<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g programmes generally focus <strong>on</strong>ability or access, somewhat less <strong>on</strong> will<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>gness <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> muchless <strong>on</strong> read<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ess – which may be c<strong>on</strong>sidered outside <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>doma<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> of family plann<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g as normally understood.One advantage of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> R-W-A c<strong>on</strong>ceptualizati<strong>on</strong> is that datacollected <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> DHS can be used to measure <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> impact of eachof <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> prerequisites. Fur<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>rmore, <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>dividual resp<strong>on</strong>dentscan be classified accord<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g to which of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> three groups<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>y comprise, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> results can be aggregated at <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>nati<strong>on</strong>al or subnati<strong>on</strong>al level.Purpose of this paperIn <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> present paper an attempt is made to place recentDHS results <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>to <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> framework proposed by Lesthaeghe<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> V<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>erhoeft (2001) <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> order to c<strong>on</strong>tribute to a betterunderst<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g of low c<strong>on</strong>traceptive use, unmet need <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>stalled fertility transiti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> some <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> countries<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> territories. At <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> same time, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> paper explores someof <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic factors that have been measured <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>recent DHS that may account for variati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>traceptiveuse <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> unmet need am<strong>on</strong>g different groups. F<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ally, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>paper c<strong>on</strong>siders some of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> “macrolevel” factors that mightaccount for variati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> level <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> trends <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> fertilityam<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> territories. The overallpurpose is to c<strong>on</strong>tribute to <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> development of strategiesto reduce unmet need for c<strong>on</strong>tracepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> accordance with<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ciples laid out <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> ICPD Programme of Acti<strong>on</strong>.By analys<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic factors at <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> micro- <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>macrolevels, it is possible that <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> specific role of familyplann<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g programmes can be more precisely stated.The geographical <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic c<strong>on</strong>textThe isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> territories of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> are shown<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> Figure 1. The <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s, toge<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>r with Australia <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>New Zeal<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>, make up <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> regi<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>venti<strong>on</strong>ally knownas “Oceania”. The <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s are also c<strong>on</strong>venti<strong>on</strong>allydivided <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>to three subregi<strong>on</strong>s: Melanesia, Micr<strong>on</strong>esia <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>Polynesia. These divisi<strong>on</strong>s reflect both ethno-culturalvariati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> geographical characteristics. Melanesianpeople are descendants of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> very first settlement of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g>, which commenced approximately 40,000 yearsago <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> New Gu<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ea. Melanesians, al<strong>on</strong>g with more recentmigrants, occupy <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> largest isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> territoriesof Fiji, New Caled<strong>on</strong>ia, Papua New Gu<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ea, Solom<strong>on</strong>Isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vanuatu. Micr<strong>on</strong>esians are descendants of amuch more recent settlement pattern from South-East<str<strong>on</strong>g>Asia</str<strong>on</strong>g> (primarily <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Philipp<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>es <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Taiwan) <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> occupy<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s north of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> equator <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> spread across <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> an east-west axis. Most of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s occupiedby Micr<strong>on</strong>esians are small <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> of atoll formati<strong>on</strong>, althoughsome are of volcanic orig<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Polynesians are descendantsof people who entered <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> from South-East <str<strong>on</strong>g>Asia</str<strong>on</strong>g>5,000 years ago <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> occupied <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s located from <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>central <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> east of Fiji to Pitcairn Isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> easternextremity of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> regi<strong>on</strong> 3 .Although orig<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ally formulated by n<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>eteenth centuryethnographers <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> explorers, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> dist<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>cti<strong>on</strong> between <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>subregi<strong>on</strong>s of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> rema<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> important today due tovariati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> social organizati<strong>on</strong>, culture <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> geography.Most importantly for populati<strong>on</strong> issues, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Melanesiansubgroup makes up <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> largest proporti<strong>on</strong> of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> l<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> areaof <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> overall <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s regi<strong>on</strong>. In general, Melanesiais a resource-rich area, Polynesia less so <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Micr<strong>on</strong>esiamuch less so. The different resource endowments of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>subregi<strong>on</strong>s have played a significant role <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> way <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> whichpopulati<strong>on</strong> issues, <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>clud<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g fertility, have been addressed– both <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> traditi<strong>on</strong>al times <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> modern era.The total populati<strong>on</strong> of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> 22 countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> territories of<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> Oceania is currently 9.85 milli<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>is grow<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g at approximately 1.9 per cent per year (Table1). At this growth rate, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> will reach 10.0milli<strong>on</strong> by <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> end of 2011. Current projecti<strong>on</strong>s suggestthat <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> regi<strong>on</strong> could <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>crease by ano<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>r6.5 milli<strong>on</strong> by 2050 before stabiliz<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g (Secretariat of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> Community, 2010).Populati<strong>on</strong> growth rates vary widely between countries<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> subregi<strong>on</strong>s. At <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> country level, <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> highest growthrates are occurr<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Melanesian countries of PapuaNew Gu<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ea (2.2%) Solom<strong>on</strong> Isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s (2.7%) <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vanuatu(2.5%). These three countries currently account for 89per cent of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> growth of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> larger regi<strong>on</strong>. At<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> o<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>r end of <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> scale are <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Polynesian countries of<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Cook Isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s, Samoa, T<strong>on</strong>ga <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Tuvalu, with annualgrowth rates of less than 0.5 per cent. Some Micr<strong>on</strong>esiancountries, such as <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Federated States of Micr<strong>on</strong>esia,Marshall Isl<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Palau also have low growth rates.At <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> subregi<strong>on</strong>al level it is clear that Melanesia accountsfor most populati<strong>on</strong> growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> larger regi<strong>on</strong> (92.5%),<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Melanesian growth is dom<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ated by <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> largest country<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Papua New Gu<str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g>ea. Future populati<strong>on</strong>growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Pacific</str<strong>on</strong>g> will be c<strong>on</strong>centrated <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Melanesiansubregi<strong>on</strong>. Populati<strong>on</strong> growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Micr<strong>on</strong>esian <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>Polynesian subregi<strong>on</strong>s is currently c<strong>on</strong>centrated <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>territories of Guam <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> French Polynesia, respectively. Theo<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>r countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>in</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>se subregi<strong>on</strong>s have low populati<strong>on</strong>growth, with <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> excepti<strong>on</strong> of Kiribati <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Nauru.66

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