Cover StoryServing uprecovery? When?While forecasts for relocationdemand in <strong>2002</strong> are scarce tononexistent, there is no shortageof macroeconomic predictions.One widely circulated analysis,the “Beige Book,” summarizescomments the Fed receives frombusiness and other contacts outsidethe Federal Reserve System.The report of January 16,<strong>2002</strong> (based on information collectedbefore January 9) notes:“Many Districts indicate thattheir contacts believe a recoverywill begin by mid-year or earlier,but the timing and strength areuncertain.”The National Association ofManufacturers (NAM) is a littlemore colorful. In its <strong>2002</strong>Economic Outlook issuedDecember 12, 2001, NAM says:“While some components of theeconomy have remained positive(personal consumption and gov-ernment spending), others havedeclined (investment and inventories)and still others are onpace to have their worst performancein more than 40 years(exports). In a phrase, the economicoutlook is a tale of thegood, the bad and the ugly.”Obviously, traditional economicindicators are giving mixed signals.Consequently, forecastersare hedging their bets. The lackof clarity makes planning difficultfor business people everywhere.And relocation professionals arenot exempt.“Perhaps it is wise,” says GregHoover, vice president, salesdevelopment, <strong>Atlas</strong> <strong>Van</strong> <strong>Lines</strong>,“to remember, as Will Rogerssaid, that ‘an economist’s guess isliable to be as good as anyoneelse’s.’ For those of us in therelocation business, temperingwhat we read with our own gutfeelings may provide the bestcompass by which to navigate in<strong>2002</strong>.”“No matter when a recoveryoccurs, corporate relocationsmay be slow to respond.I expect COD and producttransportation business willbe quicker to rebound.”– Jim Stamm,president & COO,<strong>Atlas</strong> <strong>Van</strong> <strong>Lines</strong>, Inc.Tariff400-NWorking with awhole newpricing recipe.“In one sense, there’s never agood time to introduce a fundamentalchange in the way you dobusiness,” says Jim Stamm. “Butit is pretty well agreed by all thata first-of-the-year release for anew tariff makes the most sense.”Jim explains that, because winteris traditionally the least activetime of year for the relocationbusiness, it affords the bestopportunity for carriers tobecome familiar with the newpricing mechanism.“Most carriers have alreadyadopted it, or they will have it inplace by the first of March,” saysJim. “Generally, those who havenot adopted it yet must resolvecompatibility issues within theirown operating systems.”There is another concoctioncoming out of the regulatorykitchen this year. A new provisiongoverning released rates isexpected to take effect in May.While the proposal represents asimplification, it is one morechange at a time when changesabound.Currently, a customer hasthree choices. Basic coverage isprovided at no charge. It provides60¢ per pound per article4 Amplifier Spring <strong>2002</strong>
for damage or loss. A declaredvalue option provides coveragefor the depreciated value of thearticle. Full value protectionguarantees the undepreciatedreplacement cost or repair.“There will be two choicesunder the new provision,” saysGene Wagner, assistant vicepresident, pricing, <strong>Atlas</strong> <strong>Van</strong><strong>Lines</strong>. “Customers can opt forthe basic coverage, which isincluded at no extra charge, orthey may select full value protection.Essentially, the declaredvalue option is being discontinuedfor COD shipments.”As the proposal now stands,customers who want full valueprotection will receive valuationcoverage for at least $4.50 perpound, and the charges will bebased on a sliding scale.“I expect these valuationchanges will be fairly easy toadopt,” says Gene. “Of course,not every account will be affectedimmediately. Contracts stay ineffect until they are renewed,and under the law, contracts maystill include any valuation optionthat is agreed to by the customerand <strong>Atlas</strong>.”Insurance:Are fixed costsbroken?Beyond the tragic human toll,it’s obvious that the events of9/11 have had a devastatingimpact on the nation’s economyas well. With estimates of totalliabilities from the catastropheranging between $40 and $60 billion,insurers are reassessing theindustry’s entire underwritingarchitecture. As a terrorist-consciousparadigm emerges, thecost of doing business is goingup.“There has never been a timequite like this,” says Tom Lowe,vice president of insurance, <strong>Atlas</strong><strong>Van</strong> <strong>Lines</strong>. “We had a marketthat was already starting to firmup, then it was thrown into turmoilby the events of 9/11. It’s aunique situation.”Tom says that, before the terroristattacks, cost increases of20%-25% were probably on theway for casualty coverage. Now,expected increases are much bigger.But just how much biggerdepends on whom you ask.“Where it’s going is hard tosay,” says Tom. “The forecastsare all over the map.”Full Value ProtectionCharge (no deduction) Charge ($500 deduction)$10,000 $145 $55$50,000 $425 $208$100,000 $690 $305Full value protection under the proposed released rates will be figured on a sliding scale.Spring <strong>2002</strong> Amplifier 5