1201353 2002 spring amp3.qxd - Atlas Van Lines

Cover StoryServing uprecovery? When?While forecasts for relocationdemand in 2002 are scarce tononexistent, there is no shortageof macroeconomic predictions.One widely circulated analysis,the “Beige Book,” summarizescomments the Fed receives frombusiness and other contacts outsidethe Federal Reserve System.The report of January 16,2002 (based on information collectedbefore January 9) notes:“Many Districts indicate thattheir contacts believe a recoverywill begin by mid-year or earlier,but the timing and strength areuncertain.”The National Association ofManufacturers (NAM) is a littlemore colorful. In its 2002Economic Outlook issuedDecember 12, 2001, NAM says:“While some components of theeconomy have remained positive(personal consumption and gov-ernment spending), others havedeclined (investment and inventories)and still others are onpace to have their worst performancein more than 40 years(exports). In a phrase, the economicoutlook is a tale of thegood, the bad and the ugly.”Obviously, traditional economicindicators are giving mixed signals.Consequently, forecastersare hedging their bets. The lackof clarity makes planning difficultfor business people everywhere.And relocation professionals arenot exempt.“Perhaps it is wise,” says GregHoover, vice president, salesdevelopment, Atlas Van Lines,“to remember, as Will Rogerssaid, that ‘an economist’s guess isliable to be as good as anyoneelse’s.’ For those of us in therelocation business, temperingwhat we read with our own gutfeelings may provide the bestcompass by which to navigate in2002.”“No matter when a recoveryoccurs, corporate relocationsmay be slow to respond.I expect COD and producttransportation business willbe quicker to rebound.”– Jim Stamm,president & COO,Atlas Van Lines, Inc.Tariff400-NWorking with awhole newpricing recipe.“In one sense, there’s never agood time to introduce a fundamentalchange in the way you dobusiness,” says Jim Stamm. “Butit is pretty well agreed by all thata first-of-the-year release for anew tariff makes the most sense.”Jim explains that, because winteris traditionally the least activetime of year for the relocationbusiness, it affords the bestopportunity for carriers tobecome familiar with the newpricing mechanism.“Most carriers have alreadyadopted it, or they will have it inplace by the first of March,” saysJim. “Generally, those who havenot adopted it yet must resolvecompatibility issues within theirown operating systems.”There is another concoctioncoming out of the regulatorykitchen this year. A new provisiongoverning released rates isexpected to take effect in May.While the proposal represents asimplification, it is one morechange at a time when changesabound.Currently, a customer hasthree choices. Basic coverage isprovided at no charge. It provides60¢ per pound per article4 Amplifier Spring 2002