IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 2either context there is the potential that climate risks can be eitherameliorated or exacerbated by positive or negative adaptation processesand outcomes.2.5.2. Social DimensionsThe social dimension is multi-faceted and cross-cutting. It focusesprimarily on aspects of societal organization and collective aspectsrather than individuals. However, some assessments also use the‘individual’ descriptor to clarify issues of scale and units of analysis(Adger and Kelly, 1999; K. O’Brien et al., 2008). Notions of the individualare also useful when considering psychological trauma in and afterdisasters (e.g., Few, 2007), including that related to family breakdownand loss. The social dimension includes demography, migration, anddisplacement, social groups, education, health and well-being, culture,institutions, and governance aspects.2.5.2.1. DemographyCertain population groups may be more vulnerable than others to climatevariability and extremes. For example, the very young and old are morevulnerable to heat extremes than other population groups (Staffogia etal., 2006; Gosling et al., 2009). A rapidly aging population at thecommunity to country scale bears implications for health, social isolation,economic growth, family composition, and mobility, all of which aresocial determinants of vulnerability. However, as discussed furtherbelow (Social Groups section), static checklists of vulnerable groups donot reflect the diversity or dynamics of people’s changing conditions.2.5.2.1.1. Migration and displacementTrends in migration, as a component of changing population dynamics,have the potential to rise because of alterations in extreme climateevent frequency. The United Nations Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centrehave estimated that around 20 million people were displaced orevacuated in 2008 because of rapid onset climate-related disasters(OCHA/IDMC, 2009). Further, over the last 30 years, twice as manypeople have been affected by droughts (slow onset events not includedin the previous point) as by storms (1.6 billion compared withapproximately 718 million) (IOM, 2009). However, because of the multicausalnature of migration, the relationship between climatic variabilityand change in migration is contested (Black, 2001) as are the termsenvironmental and climate refugees (Myers, 1993; Castles 2002; IOM,2009). Despite an increase in the number of hydrometeorologicaldisasters between 1990 and 2009, the International Organization onMigration reports no major impact on international migratory flowsbecause displacement is temporary and often confined within a region,and displaced individuals do not possess the financial resources tomigrate (IOM, 2009).Although there is also a lack of clear evidence for a systematic trend inextreme climate events and migration, there are clear instances of theimpact of extreme hydrometeorological events on displacement. Forexample, floods in Mozambique displaced 200,000 people in 2001,163,000 people in 2007, and 102,000 more in 2008 (INGC, 2009; IOM,2009); in Niger, large internal movements of people are due topervasive changes related to drought and desertification trends (Afifi,2011); in the Mekong River Delta region, changing flood patterns appearto be associated with migratory movements (White, 2002; IOM, 2009);and Hurricane Katrina, for which social vulnerability, race, and classplayed an important role in outward and returning migration (Elliottand Pais, 2006; Landry et al., 2007; Myers et al., 2008), resulted in thedisplacement of over one million people. As well as the displacementeffect, there is evidence for increased vulnerability to extreme eventsamong migrant groups because of an inability to understand extremeevent-related information due to language problems, prioritization offinding employment and housing, and distrust of authorities (Enarsonand Morrow, 2000; Donner and Rodriguez, 2008).Migration can be both a condition of, and a response to, vulnerability –especially political vulnerability created through conflict, which can drivepeople from their homelands. Increasingly it relates to economically andenvironmentally displaced persons but can also refer to those who donot cross international borders but become internally displaced personsas a result of extreme events in both developed and developing countries(e.g., Myers et al., 2008).Although data on climate change-forced displacement is incomplete, itis clear that the many outcomes of climate change processes will beseen and felt as disasters by the affected populations (Oliver-Smith,2009). For people affected by disasters, subsequent displacement andresettlement often constitute a second disaster in their lives. As partof the Impoverishment Risks and Reconstruction approach, Cernea(1996) outlines the eight basic risks to which people are subjected bydisplacement: landlessness, joblessness, homelessness, marginalization,food insecurity, increased morbidity, loss of access to common propertyresources, and social disarticulation. When people are forced from theirknown environments, they become separated from the material andcultural resource base upon which they have depended for life asindividuals and as communities (Altman and Low, 1992). The materiallosses most often associated with displacement and resettlement arelosses of access to customary housing and resources. Displaced peopleare often distanced from their sources of livelihood, whether land,common property (water, forests, etc.), or urban markets and clientele(Koenig, 2009). Disasters and displacement may sever the identificationwith an environment that may once have been one of the principlefeatures of cultural identity (Oliver-Smith, 2006). Displacement for anygroup can be distressing, but for indigenous peoples it can result inparticularly severe impacts. The environment and ties to land areconsidered to be essential elements in the survival of indigenous societiesand distinctive cultural identities (Colchester, 2000). The displacementand resettlement process has been consistently shown to disrupt anddestroy those networks of social relationships on which the poor80