IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 21993; Liverman, 1990; Maskrey, 1993b; Cannon, 1994, 2006; Blaikie etal., 1996; Weichselgartner, 2001; Bogardi and Birkmann, 2004; UNISDR,2004, 2009b; Birkmann, 2006b; Janssen et al., 2006; Thywissen, 2006).Vulnerability is related to predisposition, susceptibilities, fragilities,weaknesses, deficiencies, or lack of capacities that favor adverse effectson the exposed elements. Thywissen (2006) and Manyena (2006) carriedout an extensive review of the terminology. The former includes along list of definitions used for the term vulnerability and the latterincludes definitions of vulnerability and resilience and their relationship.An early view of vulnerability in the context of disaster risk managementwas related to the physical resistance of engineering structures (UNDHA,1992), but more recent views relate vulnerability to characteristics ofsocial and environmental processes. It is directly related, in the contextof climate change, to the susceptibility, sensitivity, and lack of resilienceor capacities of the exposed system to cope with and adapt to extremesand non-extremes (Luers et al., 2003; Schröter et al., 2005; Brklacichand Bohle, 2006; IPCC, 2001, 2007).While vulnerability is a key concept for both disaster risk and climatechange adaptation, the term is employed in numerous other contexts,for instance to refer to epidemiological and psychological fragilities,ecosystem sensitivity, or the conditions, circumstances, and drivers thatmake people vulnerable to natural and economic stressors (Kaspersonet al., 1988; Cutter, 1994; Wisner et al., 2004; Brklacich and Bohle, 2006;Haines et al., 2006; Villagrán de León, 2006). It is common to findblanket descriptions of the elderly, children, or women as ‘vulnerable,’without any indication as to what these groups are vulnerable to(Wisner, 1993; Enarson and Morrow, 1998; Morrow, 1999; Bankoff,2004; Cardona, 2004, 2011).Vulnerability can be seen as situation-specific, interacting with a hazardevent to generate risk (Lavell, 2003; Cannon, 2006; Cutter et al., 2008).Vulnerability to financial crisis, for example, does not infer vulnerabilityto climate change or natural hazards. Similarly, a population might bevulnerable to hurricanes, but not to landslides or floods. From a climatechange perspective, basic environmental conditions change progressivelyand then induce new risk conditions for societies. For example, morefrequent and intense events may introduce factors of risk into newareas, revealing underlying vulnerability. In fact, future vulnerability isembedded in the present conditions of the communities that may beexposed in the future (Patt et al., 2005, 2009); that is, new hazards inareas not previously subject to them will reveal, not necessarily create,underlying vulnerability factors (Alwang et al., 2001; Cardona et al.,2003a; Lopez-Calva and Ortiz, 2008; UNISDR, 2009a).While vulnerability is in general hazard-specific, certain factors, such aspoverty, and the lack of social networks and social support mechanisms,will aggravate or affect vulnerability levels irrespective of the type ofhazard. These types of generic factors are different from the hazardspecificfactors and assume a different position in the interventionactions and the nature of risk management and adaptation processes(ICSU-LAC, 2010a,b). Vulnerability of human settlements and ecosystemsis intrinsically tied to different socio-cultural and environmentalprocesses (Kasperson et al., 1988; Cutter, 1994; Adger, 2006; Cutter andFinch, 2008; Cutter et al., 2008; Williams et al., 2008; Décamps, 2010;Dawson et al., 2011). Vulnerability is linked also to deficits in riskcommunication, especially the lack of appropriate information that canlead to false risk perceptions (Birkmann and Fernando, 2008), whichhave an important influence on the motivation and perceived ability toact or to adapt to climate change and environmental stressors(Grothmann and Patt, 2005). Additionally, processes of maladaptationor unsustainable adaptation can increase vulnerability and risks(Birkmann, 2011a).Vulnerability in the context of disaster risk management is the mostpalpable manifestation of the social construction of risk (Aysan, 1993;Blaikie et al., 1996; Wisner et al., 2004; ICSU-LAC 2010a,b). This notionunderscores that society, in its interaction with the changing physicalworld, constructs disaster risk by transforming physical events intohazards of different intensities or magnitudes through social processesthat increase the exposure and vulnerability of population groups, theirlivelihoods, production, support infrastructure, and services (Chambers,1989; Wilches-Chaux, 1989; Cannon, 1994; Wisner et al., 2004; Wisner,2006a; Carreño et al., 2007a; ICSU-LAC, 2010a,b). This includes:• How human action influences the levels of exposure andvulnerability in the face of different physical events• How human intervention in the environment leads to the creationof new hazards or an increase in the levels or damage potential ofexisting ones• How human perception, understanding, and assimilation of thefactors of risk influence societal reactions, prioritization, anddecisionmaking processes.There is high agreement and robust evidence that high vulnerability andexposure are mainly an outcome of skewed development processes,including those associated with environmental mismanagement,demographic changes, rapid and unplanned urbanization, and the scarcityof livelihood options for the poor (Maskrey, 1993a,b, 1994, 1998; Mansilla,1996; Lavell, 2003; Cannon, 2006; ICSU-LAC, 2010a,b; Cardona, 2011).Increases in disaster risk and the occurrence of disasters have been inevidence over the last five decades (Munich Re, 2011) (see Section 1.1.1).This trend may continue and may be enhanced in the future as a resultof projected climate change, further demographic and socioeconomicchanges, and trends in governance, unless concerted actions are enactedto reduce vulnerability and to adapt to climate change, includinginterventions to address disaster risks (Lavell, 1996, 1999a, 2003; ICSU-LAC, 2010a,b; UNISDR, 2011).2.3. The Drivers of VulnerabilityIn order to effectively manage risk, it is essential to understand howvulnerability is generated, how it increases, and how it builds up(Maskrey, 1989; Cardona, 1996a, 2004, 2011; Lavell, 1996, 1999a;70