IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 9Case Studiesdeveloped, some success has been reported (e.g., for malaria prediction)(Thomson et al., 2006; Jones et al., 2007). Nonetheless there may beadditional obstacles such as policy constraints that restrict the range ofpossible actions.9.2.11.4. InterventionsThere are many examples of interventions of early warning systemsoutlined in the other case studies of this chapter and also in Chapters 5, 6,and 7. As a part of their strategy of reducing risk, the Victorian Governmentin Australia has established the heat wave early warning system formetropolitan Melbourne and is undertaking similar work for regionalVictoria (see Case Study 9.2.2). A Storm Warning Center and associatedcoastal volunteer network has been established in Bangladesh and hasbeen proven effective (Case Study 9.2.5). The absence of a storm warningsystem in Myanmar contributed to the tragedy of that event (Case Study9.2.5). The benefits of early warning systems are also discussed withrespect to floods (Case Study 9.2.6), heat waves (Case Study 9.2.1),epidemic disease (Case Study 9.2.7), and drought (Case Study 9.2.3).9.2.11.5. OutcomesThere have been examples of major benefits of early warning systems(Einstein and Sousa, 2007). Assessments of community capacity torespond to cyclone warnings have been performed for India (Sharma etal., 2009), Florida (Smith and McCarty, 2009), New Orleans (Burnside etal., 2007), New South Wales, Australia (Cretikos et al., 2008), and China(Wang et al., 2008). Predictions of landfall for tropical cyclones areimportant (Davis et al., 2008). In Bangladesh (Case Study 9.2.5; Paul,2009), the implementation of an early warning system enabled peopleto evacuate a hazardous area promptly (Paul and Dutt, 2010; Stein etal., 2010). If forecasts are frequently incorrect, the response of people isaffected (Chapter 5; Dow and Cutter, 1998). Public health impacts ofhazards also depend on the preparedness of the local community (Vogtand Sapir, 2009) and this can be improved by early warnings. However,accurate predictions alone are insufficient for a successful early warningsystem, as is demonstrated by the case in the United Kingdom – a countrythat regularly experiences flooding (Parker et al., 2009). Severe damageand health problems followed flooding in 2007 due to insufficiently clearwarning communication, issued too late and inadequately coordinated,so that people, local government, and support services were unprepared(UNISDR, 2009c). Heat-health warnings (Case Study 9.2.1) have provedmore effective (Fouillet et al., 2008; Hajat et al., 2010; Michelozzi et al.,2010; Rubio et al., 2010) although improvements are still needed(Kalkstein and Sheridan, 2007).Notwithstanding the difficulties outlined for use of seasonal predictions indisaster risk management, the successful use of such predictions has beenpossible (IRI, 2011). Since all preparative actions have some direct costand it is impractical to be always prepared for all eventualities, seasonalpredictions can help to choose priorities from a list of actions.9.2.11.6. Lessons IdentifiedEarly warning systems for extreme weather- or climate-related events,such as heat waves, floods, and storms have been implemented toprovide warnings on time scales of hours to days. The skill of warningsbeyond a few days ahead is improving as seasonal predictions are nowdemonstrating benefits for drought, floods, and other phenomena, anddecadal forecasts of increased numbers of intense precipitation eventsand heat waves are now being factored into planning decisions (NRC,2003; Lazo et al., 2009; Goddard et al., 2010). It is expected that earlywarning systems will enable the implementation of DRR and CCA. Earlywarning systems rely on the ability of people to factor information on thefuture into plans and strategies and need to be coupled with educationprograms, legislative initiatives, and scientific demonstrations of theskill and cost value benefits of these systems.9.2.12. Effective Legislation for Multilevel Governanceof Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation9.2.12.1. IntroductionThis case study, through focus on South Africa’s disaster risk managementlaw and comparable legal arrangements in other states, such as thePhilippines and Colombia, explores critical provisions for effectivelegislation. South Africa’s legislation has served as a model for others(Pelling and Holloway, 2006; Van Niekerk, 2011) because it focuses onprevention, decentralizes DRR governance, mandates the integration ofDRR into development planning, and requires stakeholder inclusiveness.Implementation has proven challenging, however, particularly at thelocal level (NDMC, 2007, 2010; Visser and Van Niekerk, 2009; Botha etal., 2011; Van Niekerk, 2011) as is the case for most states (GNDR, 2009;UNISDR, 2011b). Through analysis of South Africa’s legislation and thedifficulties that it faces in implementation, this study provides relevantinformation to other governments as they assess whether their ownnational legislation to reduce and manage disaster risk is adequate foradapting to climate change.9.2.12.2. BackgroundA legal framework establishes legal authority for programs andorganizations that relate to hazards, risk, and risk management. Theselaws may dictate – or encourage – policies, practices, processes, theassignment of authorities and responsibilities to individuals and/orinstitutions, and the creation of institutions or mechanisms forcoordination or collaborative action among institutions (Mattingly, 2002).Law can be used to provide penalties and incentives by enforcingstandards, to empower existing agencies or establish new bodies withnew responsibilities, and to assign budget lines (Pelling and Holloway,2006). In short, legislation enables and promotes sustainable engagement,helps to avoid disjointed action at various levels, and provides recoursefor society when things go wrong.519