IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Case StudiesChapter 9Bank, 2005b). The RMI stands out among other lower middle incomecountries, receiving average aid per capita of US$ 1,183, compared withthe average of US$ 8 for other lower middle income countries (WorldBank, 2005b). This assistance, buttressed by national disaster managementpolicies dating back to the RMI’s independence in 1986 and includingthe Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery’s role in assessingthe RMI’s systems and noting existing gaps for future developmentpartner projects, has resulted in a range of national and regional disasterand climate risk management initiatives (World Bank, 2009, 2011b).9.2.9.5. Lessons IdentifiedThe physical, social, and economic characteristics by which SIDS anddeveloping countries are defined (education, income, and health, forexample) increase their vulnerability to extreme climate events.Experiences from the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, and Grenadaindicate that limited freshwater supplies and inadequate drainageinfrastructure are key vulnerability factors. These examples also indicatean important difference between risk of frequent smaller hazards andcatastrophic risk of infrequent but extreme events.The cases of Grenada and the Maldives demonstrate the high relativefinancial impact that a hazard can have on a small island state. Forthe RMI, financial support from donors has enabled a range of riskmanagement programs. Although the importance of disaster riskreduction strategies is apparent, preventive approaches continue toreceive less emphasis than disaster relief and recovery (Davies et al., 2008).Considering the range of challenges facing policymakers in some SIDS,preventive climate adaptation policies can seem marginal comparedwith pressing issues of poverty, affordable energy, affordable food,transportation, health care, and economic development.National policymaking in this context remains a major challenge andavailability of funding for preventive action – such as disaster and climaterisk management – may continue to be limited for many countries(Ahmad and Ahmed, 2002; Jegillos, 2003; Huq et al., 2006; Yohe et al.,2007). Although most developing countries participate in variousinternational protocols and conventions relating to climate change andsustainable development and most have adopted national environmentalconservation and natural disaster management policies (Yohe et al.,2007), the policy agendas of many developing countries do not yet fullyaddress all aspects of climate change (Beg et al., 2002).9.2.10. Changing Cold Climate Vulnerabilities:Northern Canada9.2.10.1. IntroductionIn cold climate regions all over the world, climate change is occurringmore rapidly than over most of the globe (Anisimov et al., 2007). Thesechanges have implications for the built environment. The vulnerability ofresidents of the Canadian North is complex and dynamic. In addition tothe increasing risks from extreme weather events, there are climateimpacts upon travel, food security, and infrastructural integrity, which inturn affect many other aspects of everyday life (Pearce et al., 2009; Fordet al., 2010). Additionally, the relative isolation of these northerncommunities makes exposure to climate-related risk more difficult toadapt to, thus increasing their level of vulnerability (Ford and Pearce,2010). This case study will examine the increased vulnerabilities inregions of the Canadian North due to climate change’s effect oninfrastructure through changes in permafrost thaw and snow loading.The study illustrates existing and projected risks and governmentalresponses to them at the municipal, provincial/territorial, and nationallevels. Canada has three territories: the Yukon (YT); the NorthwestTerritories (NWT); and Nunavut (NU); this study deals with all three and,to a much lesser extent, the northern regions of the provinces, such asNunavik in northern Quebec. Though both permafrost thaw andchanging snow loads are slowly progressing events, as opposed to onetimeextreme events, their impacts can result in disasters. Futureprotection relies upon risk reduction and adaptation. Sections 3.3.1 and3.5.7 discuss changes in cold extremes and other climate variables athigh latitudes.9.2.10.2. BackgroundOver the past few decades, the northern regions of Canada haveexperienced a rate of warming about twice that of the rest of the world(McBean et al., 2005; Field et al., 2007; Furgal and Prowse, 2008). Innorthern Canada, winter temperatures are expected to rise by between3.5 and 12.5°C by 2080, with smaller changes projected for spring andsummer; in more southerly regions of northern Canada, temperaturescould warm to be above freezing for much longer periods (Furgal andProwse, 2008). For example, whereas it was estimated that theNorthwest Passage would be navigable for ice-strengthened cargoships in 2050 (Instanes et al., 2005), it has already been navigable in2007 (Barber et al., 2008). Recent studies have suggested that somecommunities in northern Canada will be vulnerable to the acceleratedrate of climate change (Ford and Smit, 2004; Ford and Furgal, 2009).Higher temperatures have several implications for infrastructure thatplays an important role in maintaining the social and economic functionsof a community (CSA, 2010). Permafrost thaw and changing snowloads have the potential to affect the structural stability of essentialinfrastructure (Nelson et al., 2002; Couture and Pollard, 2007). Designstandards in northern Canada were based on permafrost and snow loadlevels of a previous climate regime (CSA, 2010). Adaptation is essentialto avoid higher operational and maintenance costs for structures and toensure that the designed long lifespan of each structure remains viable(Allard et al., 2002). Addressing these impacts of climate change is acomplex task. Naturally each structure will be differently affected andthe resulting damage can exacerbate existing weaknesses and createnew vulnerabilities. For example, although increasing snow loadsalone can have negative impacts on infrastructure, the fact that many514