IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 9Case StudiesSuch devastation in a SIDS might be countered with further disasterpreparation and efforts to maintain emergency funds to rebuildtheir economies (De Comarmond and Payet, 2010).• Grenada is a small tri-island state in the Eastern Caribbean with apopulation of 102,000 and a per capita GDP of US$ 4,601 in 2004(IMF, 2011). It is a small open economy, vulnerable to externalshocks and natural disasters as seen by the effects of HurricaneIvan, which created large fiscal and balance of payments financingneeds in 2004, and Hurricane Emily, which struck in 2005 (IMF, 2004,2006). Hurricane Ivan brought major disruption to an economicrecovery process, eventually costing the island an estimated US$ 3billion (Boruff and Cutter, 2007). It is projected that Ivan reducedthe country’s forecasted growth rate from 5.7% to -1.4% (Quarless,2007). Hurricane Emily followed 10 months later, virtually completingthe trail of destruction started by Ivan. The impact was seen inevery sector of the economy. Capital stock was severely damagedand employment was significantly affected (UNDP, 2006).9.2.9.3. Description of VulnerabilityMany SIDS face specific disadvantages associated with their small size,insularity, remoteness, and susceptibility to natural hazards. SIDS areparticularly vulnerable to climate change because their key economicsectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and tourism are all susceptible(Barnett and Adger, 2003; Read, 2010) (a more extensive discussion isprovided in Chapter 4, especially Sections 4.2.1, 4.4.4, 4.5.2, and 4.5.3).The hazards of extreme weather events are coupled with other longtermclimate change impacts, especially sea level rise (see Box 3-4).Low-lying atoll communities, such as the Maldives and Cook Islands, areespecially vulnerable (Ebi et al., 2006; Woodroffe, 2008; Kelman andWest, 2009) and are expected to lose significant portions of land(Mimura et al., 2007). Small island states and particularly atoll countriesmay experience erosion, inundation, and saline intrusion resulting inecosystem disruption, decreased agricultural productivity, changes indisease patterns, economic losses, and population displacement – all ofwhich reinforce vulnerability to extreme weather events (Pernetta,1992; Nurse and Sem, 2001; Mimura et al., 2007).SIDS suffer higher relative economic losses from natural hazards andare less resilient to those losses so that one extreme event may have theeffect of countering years of development gains (UN, 2005; Kelman, 2010).The distances between many SIDS and economic centers make theirpopulations among the most isolated in the world (World Bank, 2005b).Underdevelopment and susceptibility to disasters are mutually reinforcing:disasters not only cause heavy losses to capital assets, but also disruptproduction and the flow of goods and services in the affected economy,resulting in a loss of earnings (Pelling et al., 2002). In both the short andthe long term, those impacts can have sharp repercussions on theeconomic development of a country, affecting GDP, public finances, andforeign trade, thus increasing levels of poverty and public debt(Mirza, 2003; Ahrens and Rudolph, 2006). Climate change threatens toexacerbate existing vulnerabilities and hinder socioeconomic development(UNFCCC, 2007b).The RMI faces major climate-related natural hazards including sea levelrise, tropical storms or typhoons with associated storm surges, anddrought. These hazards should be considered within the context ofadditional hazards and challenges such as ecosystem degradation,pollution of the marine environment, and coastal erosion as well asfood security. The RMI faces physical and economic challenges thatamplify the population’s vulnerability to climate hazards, including highpopulation density, high levels of poverty, low elevation, and fragilefreshwater resources (World Bank, 2011b). The Global Facility for DisasterReduction and Recovery report concludes that the hazard that poses themost threat is sea level rise, as the highest point on RMI is only 10 mabove sea level (World Bank, 2011b). Consequently, multilateral donorsconsidered the RMI ‘high risk’ and the Global Facility for DisasterReduction and Recovery has identified it as a priority country forassistance (World Bank, 2011b).9.2.9.4. Outcomes/ConsequencesA range of both local and donor-supported actions have endeavored tobuild resilience among SIDS. The example of the RMI shows the benefitsthat risk reduction and climate change adaptation efforts may offerother island states.Freshwater availability is a major concern for many SIDS (Quarless,2007), including the RMI. Since SIDS are especially vulnerable toextreme weather events, their water supplies face rapid salinization dueto seawater intrusion and contamination (PSIDS, 2009). According toone study, countries such as the RMI lack the financial and technicalresources to implement seawater desalination for their populations(UNDESA, 2011). Some disaster and climate risk management gainsmay come from simple technology (UNDESA, 2010). New scavengertechnology for wells has been introduced (UNESC, 2004) as one of theways forward. Simple abstraction of freshwater from thin groundwaterlenses (a typical practice in oceanic atolls) often results in upward coningof saltwater, which, in turn, causes contamination of the water supplies.The RMI has benefited from its use of new, pioneering technology tolimit the effects of extreme weather events on its water supply (UNDESA,2011). The improvement of climate sensitivity knowledge, particularly inthe context of risk management, is key to adaptation to climate change.Climate and disaster risk are closely entwined and, for example,resilience to drought and resilience to climate change both stand to beenhanced through a single targeted program.In addition to project-oriented development assistance, the RMIreceives substantial financial assistance from the United States througha Compact of Free Association (Nuclear Claims Tribunal, Republic of theMarshall Islands, 2007). Grants and budget support provided underCompact I over the period of 1987 to 2001 totaled an average of over30% of GDP, not including any other form of bilateral assistance (World513