IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Case StudiesChapter 9multi-hazard risk plan from 2000 was not well implemented (Revi,2005). Risk protection in most other megacities in developing countrieswas also found to be more informal than robust (Hanson et al., 2011).Multi-hazard risk models, based on probabilistic analysis, can helpgovernments better reduce risks and facilitate better management ofand preparedness for risks that cannot be reduced cost effectively(Revi, 2008; Ranger et al., 2011; UNISDR, 2011b).Given that up to US$ 35 trillion (approximately 9% of projected globalGDP) may be exposed to climate-related hazards in port cities by 2070(in purchasing power parity, 2001 US$) (Hanson et al., 2011), managing– and reducing – these risks represents a high-leverage policy area foradaptation. The scale of economic assets at risk is impressive and tothis must be added the livelihoods and health of the poor that may bedisproportionately impacted by disaster events but have partial visibilityin macroeconomic assessments.The need to adapt is especially acute in developing countries in Asiagiven that 14 of the top 20 urban agglomerations projected to have thegreatest exposure of assets in 2070 are in developing countries in thisregion (Hanson et al., 2011). This suggests that scaled-up financing foradaptation may be needed to safeguard the residents and economicactivity in these cities to a level comparable to that of other coastalmegacities that face similar population and asset exposure, such asNew York or Tokyo. Two critical distinctions are the degree of povertyand the less complete reach of local government in those cities most atrisk.Despite efforts to assess the impacts of climate change at the city scale,analysis of the economic impacts of climate change at this scale hasreceived relatively little attention to date (Hallegatte and Corfee-Morlot, 2011). In developing countries, the sometimes incompleteunderstanding of climate risks and the limited institutional capacityhave meant that analysis of climate change impacts at the city scale hasgenerally considered only flood risks and not yet assessed additionalpotential impacts (Hunt and Watkiss, 2011). A standardized, multihazardimpact analysis at the city scale would be useful and facilitatecomparisons between cities (Hunt and Watkiss, 2011).9.2.9. Small Island Developing States:The Challenge of Adaptation9.2.9.1. IntroductionSmall Island Developing States (SIDS) are defined as those that are smallisland nations, have low-lying coastal zones, and share developmentchallenges (UNCTAD, 2004). Strengthening of SIDS technical capacitiesto enable resilience building has been recommended (UNESC, 2011).This case study explores the critical vulnerabilities of the Republic of theMarshall Islands (RMI). Additional data from the Maldives, also highlyvulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events and where thetsunami caused significant damage, and Grenada, which is a countrywith a small open economy vulnerable to external shocks and naturaldisasters, are used to develop the full context of the limits of adaptation.Specifically, the RMI highlights the availability of fresh water as a majorconcern. “There is strong evidence that under most climate changescenarios, water resources in small islands are likely to be seriouslycompromised (very high confidence)” (Mimura et al., 2007).9.2.9.2. BackgroundSIDS can be particularly vulnerable to hazards and face difficulties whenresponding to disasters (TDB, 2007). SIDS share similar developmentchallenges including small but growing populations, economicdependence on international funders, and lack of resources (e.g.,freshwater, land) (World Bank, 2005b; UNFCCC, 2007a). The IPCC(Mimura et al., 2007) concluded that “small islands, whether located inthe tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make themespecially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, andextreme events (very high confidence).” Many SIDS share vulnerabilitieswith high levels of poverty and are reported to suffer seriousenvironmental degradation and to have weak human and institutionalcapacities for land management that is integrated and sustainable (GEF,2006). The range of physical resources available to states influences theiroptions to cope with disasters and the relatively restricted economicdiversity intrinsic to SIDS minimizes their capacity to respond inemergencies with measures such as shelter or evacuation (Boruff andCutter, 2007). Hence SIDS are among the most vulnerable states to theimpacts of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007b). As of 2010, 38 UN membernations and 14 non-UN Members/Associate Members of the RegionalCommissions were classified as SIDS (UN-OHRLLS, 2011).The RMI provides an example of critical vulnerabilities. It is made up offive islands and 29 atolls that are spread across more than 1.9 millionsquare kilometers of Pacific Ocean (World Bank, 2006a). The countryhas a population of 64,522, approximately two-thirds of which isconcentrated in urban areas on just two atolls (UNDESA, 2010; WorldBank, 2011b). The other one-third live on the even more remote outerislands and atolls (World Bank, 2006a). Even the main inhabited islandsremain extremely isolated; the nearest major port is over 4,500 km fromMajuro, the capital atoll (World Bank, 2005b).The Maldives and Grenada both provide other examples of vulnerabilityto extreme events and disasters and climate change adaptation needs:• The Maldives consist of 1,192 small islands. 80% are 1 m or lessabove sea level (Quarless, 2007), of which only three islands have asurface area of more than 500 ha (De Comarmond and Payet, 2010).These characteristics make them highly vulnerable to damage fromsea level rise and extreme weather events. The economic andsurvival challenges of the people of the Maldives were evidentafter the 2004 tsunami caused damage equivalent to 62% ofnational GDP (World Bank, 2005c). As of 2009, the country stillfaced a deficit of more than US$ 150 million for reconstruction.512