IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Case StudiesChapter 9heightens vulnerability in certain populations. Learning is an importantcomponent of this iterative process (see Sections 1.4 and 8.6.3.2).There are multiple opportunities for learning to enhance risk managementrelated to epidemic disease. First, while reactive containment processescan be essential for identifying and containing outbreaks, this approachoften glosses over root causes in an effort to return to the status quo.As the World Health Organization states, “Current responses to choleraoutbreaks are reactive, taking the form of a more or less well-organizedemergency response,” and prevention is lacking (WHO, 2006c). Withoutlosing the focus on containment, institutional learning could incorporatestrategies to address root causes, reducing the likelihood of futureoutbreaks. This includes continued efforts to better understand cholera’shuman ecology to explore deeper assumptions, structures, and policydecisions that shape how risks are constructed. In the case of cholera,such exploration has opened the possibility of devising warning systemsand other novel risk management strategies. Another equally importantconclusion – one that experts on climate’s role in driving cholera riskhave emphasized (Pascual et al., 2002) – is that poverty and politicalinstability are the fundamental drivers of cholera risk, and that emphasison development and justice are risk management interventions as well.9.2.7.6. Lessons IdentifiedThe 2008 cholera epidemic epitomized the complex interactionsbetween weather events and population vulnerability that can interactto produce disastrous epidemic disease. Recent studies of cholera,including its basic and human ecology, demonstrate the potential forearly warning and potential points of leverage that may be useful forinterventions to contain future epidemics. The key messages from thiswork include:• Variability in precipitation and temperature can affect importantepidemic diseases such as cholera both through direct effects onthe transmission cycle, but also potentially through indirect effects,for example through problems arising from inadequate basic waterand sanitation services.• If other determinants remained constant, climate change would beexpected to increase risk by increasing exposure likelihood –through increased variability in precipitation and gradually risingtemperatures and by increasing population vulnerability.• The health impacts of cholera epidemics are strongly mediatedthrough individual characteristics such as age and immunity, andpopulation-level social determinants, such as poverty, governance,and infrastructure.• Experience from multiple cholera epidemics demonstrates thatnon-climatic factors can either exacerbate or override the effects ofweather or other infection hazards.• The processes of DRM and preventive public health are closelylinked, and largely synonymous. Strengthening and integratingthese measures, alongside economic development, should increaseresilience against the health effects of extreme weather and gradualclimate change.9.2.8. Coastal Megacities: The Case of Mumbai9.2.8.1. IntroductionIn July 2005, Mumbai, India, was struck by an exceptional storm (Revi,2005). In one 24-hour span alone, the city received 94 cm of rain, andthe storm left more than 1,000 dead, mostly in slum settlements (DeSherbinin et al., 2007; Sharma and Tomar, 2010). A week of heavy raindisrupted water, sewer, drainage, road, rail, air transport, power, andtelecommunications systems (Revi, 2005). As a result of this ‘synchronousfailure,’ Mumbai-based automated teller machine banking systems ceasedworking across much of the country, and the Bombay and NationalStock Exchanges were temporarily forced to close (Revi, 2005; UNISDR,2011b). This demonstrates that within megacities, risk and loss are bothconcentrated and also spread through networks of critical infrastructureas well as connected economic and other systems.9.2.8.2. BackgroundAt present, Mumbai is the city with the largest population exposed tocoastal flooding – estimated at 2,787,000 currently, and projected toincrease to more than 11 million people exposed by 2070 (Hanson etal., 2011). During that same period, exposed assets are expected toincrease from US$ 46.2 billion to nearly US$ 1.6 trillion (Hanson et al.,2011).Mumbai’s significant, and increasing, exposure of people and assets –both within the urban fabric but also outside, connected to the city’sfunctions through networks of critical infrastructure, financial, andresource flows – will be affected by changes in climate means andclimate extremes (Nicholls et al., 2007; Revi, 2008; Fuchs et al., 2011;Ranger et al., 2011). It is difficult to associate a single extreme eventwith climate change, but it may be possible to discuss the changedprobability of an event’s occurrence in relation to a particular cause,such as global warming (see FAQ 3.2). For the Indian monsoon, forexample, extreme rain events have an increasing trend between 1901and 2005, with the trend being stronger since 1950 (see Section 3.4.1).9.2.8.3. Description of VulnerabilityAttributing causes of changes in monsoons is difficult due to substantialdifferences between models, and the observed maximum rainfall onIndia’s west coast, where Mumbai is located, is poorly simulated bymany models (see Section 3.4.1). That being said, increases in precipitationare projected for the Asian monsoon, along with increased interannualseasonally averaged precipitation variability (see Section 3.4.1).Furthermore, extreme sea levels can be expected to change in the futureas a result of mean sea level rise and changes in atmospheric storminess,and it is very likely that sea level rise will contribute to increases inextreme sea levels in the future (see Section 3.5.3).510