IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 9Case Studies• Iron dzud: Autumn brought early snowfall and snow depthreached 30 to 40 cm, even 70 to 80 cm in some places. Heavysnowfall exceeding climatic means was recorded in October.Moreover, a warming in November and December by 1.7 to 3.5°Cabove the climatic mean resulted in snow cover compaction andhigh density, reaching 0.37 g cm -3 , and ice cover formation, bothof which blocked livestock pasturing.• White dzud: In January, air temperature dropped down to -40 to-50°C over the western and northern regions of the country. Themonthly average air temperature was lower than climatic meansby 2 to 6°C. The cold condition persisted for two months. Abundantsnowfall resulted with 80% of the country’s territory being coveredin snow of 24 to 46 cm depth.• Black dzud: Lack of snowfall in the Gobi region and Great Lakedepression caused water shortages for animals.• Hoof dzud: The improper pasture management led to unplannedconcentration of a great number of livestock in a few counties inthe middle and south Gobi provinces that were not affected bydrought and snowfall.Animals were weakened as a result of long-lasting climatic hardshipand forage shortage of this dzud (Batjargal et al., 2001). After threeyears of dzuds that occurred in sequence, the country had lost nearlyone-third (approximately 12 million) of its livestock and Mongolia’snational gross agricultural output in 2003 decreased by 40% comparedto that in 1999 (Mearns, 2004; Oyun, 2004; AIACC, 2006; Lise et al.,2006; Saizen et al., 2010). It was reported that in 1998 there were anestimated 190,000 herding households but as a result of the dzud,11,000 families lost all their livestock (Lise et al., 2006). Thus the dzudhad severe impacts on the population and their livelihoods, includingunemployment, poverty, and negative health impacts (Batjargal et al.,2001; Oyun, 2004; AIACC, 2006; Morris, 2011).9.2.4.3.2. Dzud of 2009-2010In the summer of 2009, Mongolia suffered drought conditions, restrictinghaymaking and foraging (UNDP Mongolia, 2010; Morris, 2011). Rainfallat the end of November became a sheet of ice, and, in late December,19 of 21 provinces recorded temperatures below -40°C; this was followedby heavy and continuous snowfall in January and February 2010(Sternberg, 2010; UNDP Mongolia, 2010). Over 50% of all the countryherders’ households and their livestock were affected by the dzud(Sternberg, 2010). By April, 75,000 herder families had lost all or morethan half their livestock (Sternberg, 2010).9.2.4.4. Interventions9.2.4.4.1. Dzud of 1999-2002The government of Mongolia issued the order for intensification of winterpreparedness in August 1999, but allocated funding for its implementationin January 2000, by which time significant animal mortality had alreadyoccurred (Batjargal et al., 2001). The government then appealed to itscitizens and international organizations for assistance and relief, includingdistribution of money, fodder, medicine, clothes, flour, rice, high energyand high protein biscuits for children, health and veterinary services,medical equipment, and vegetable seeds (Batjargal et al., 2001).Capacity-building activities through mass media campaigns were alsocarried out, focused on providing advice on methods of care and feedingfor weak animals (Batjargal et al., 2001).Herders rely upon traditional informal coping mechanisms and ad hocsupport from government and international agencies (Mahul and Skees,2005). For affected areas, after immediate relief, the main longer termsupport has conventionally been through restocking programs (Mahuland Skees, 2005). Evaluation has shown that these can be expensive,relatively inefficient, and fail to provide the right incentives for herders(Mahul and Skees, 2005). Restocking in areas with drought, poor pasturecondition, and unfit animals can actually increase livestock vulnerabilityin the following year (Mahul and Skees, 2005) as a result of greatercompetition for scarce resources.The government has prioritized the livestock sector with parliamentapprovedstate policy (MGH, 2003) and, with support from donors,responded to dzud disasters with reforms that include greater flexibilityin pasture land tenure, coupled with increased investment in ruralinfrastructure and services (Mahul and Skees, 2005). However, livestocksector reforms and approaches have not yet proved sufficient to copewith catastrophic weather events (Mahul and Skees, 2005). Althoughthe State Reserves Agency is working to reduce the effects of dzud,catastrophic livestock mortality persists (Mahul and Skees, 2005).9.2.4.4.2. Dzud of 2009-2010At a local level: The National Climate Risk Management Strategy andAction Plan (MMS, 2009) sets a goal of building climate resilience at thecommunity level through reducing risk and facilitating adaptation by: (i)improving access to water through region-specific activities such asrainwater harvesting and creation of water pools from precipitation andflood waters, for use for animals, pastureland, and crop irrigation purposes;(ii) improving the quality of livestock by introducing local selectivebreeds with higher productivity and more resilient to climate impacts;(iii) strengthened veterinarian services to reduce animal diseases andparasites and cross-border epidemic infections; and (iv) using traditionalherding knowledge and techniques for adjusting animal types and herdstructure to make appropriate for the carrying capacity of the pasturelandand pastoral migration patterns. The formation of herders’ communitygroups and establishment of pasture co-management teams (Ykhanbai etal., 2004), along with better community-based disaster risk management,could also facilitate effective DRR and CCA (Baigalmaa, 2010).At a national level: Mongolia’s millennium development prioritiesclearly state an aim to adapt to climate change and desertification and501