IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Case StudiesChapter 9practices at both the farm level and on the delivery side; developingcrops tolerant to salinity and heat stress; changing cropping patterns;altering the timing or location of cropping activities; diversifyingproduction systems into higher value and more efficient water useoptions; and capacity building of relevant stakeholders in vulnerablenational and local areas (Abou Hadid, 2009; El-Quosy, 2009).• Building resilience through knowledge, advocacy, research, andtraining by making information on drought risk accessible (UNISDR,2007a), and having any adaptation measures be developed aspart of, and closely integrated into, overall and country-specificdevelopment programs and strategies that should be understoodas a ‘shared responsibility’ (Easterling et al., 2007). This could beachieved through educational material and training to enhancepublic awareness (UN, 2009).9.2.4. Recent Dzud Disasters in Mongolia9.2.4.1. IntroductionThis case study introduces dzud disaster: the impacts, interventionmeasures, and efforts toward efficient response using the example oftwo events that occurred in Mongolia in 1999-2002 and 2009-2010.Mongolia is a country of greatly variable, highly arid and semi-arid climate,with an extensive livestock sector dependent upon access to grasslands(Batima and Dagvadorj, 2000; Dagvadorj et al., 2010; Marin, 2010). TheMongolian term dzud denotes unusually extreme weather conditionsthat result in the death of a significant number of livestock over largeareas of the country (Morinaga et al., 2003; Oyun, 2004). Thus, the termimplies both exposure to such combinations of extreme weatherconditions but also the impacts thereof (Marin, 2010).9.2.4.2. BackgroundThe climate of Mongolia is continental with sharply defined seasons,high annual and diurnal temperature fluctuations, and low rainfall(Batima and Dagvadorj, 2000). Summer rainfall seldom exceeds 380 mmin the mountains and is less than 50 mm in the desert areas (Dagvadorjet al., 2010). Dzud is a compound hazard (see Section 3.1.3 for discussionof compound events) occurring in this cold dry climate, and encompassesdrought, heavy snowfall, extreme cold, and windstorms. It can last all yearround and can cause mass livestock mortality and dramatic socioeconomicimpacts – including unemployment, poverty, and mass migration fromrural to urban areas, giving rise to heavy pressure on infrastructure andsocial and ecosystem services (Batima and Dagvadorj, 2000; Batjargalet al., 2001; Oyun, 2004; AIACC, 2006; Dagvadorj et.al., 2010).There are several types of dzud. If there is heavy snowfall, the event isknown as a white dzud, conversely if no snow falls, a black dzud occurs,which results in a lack of drinking water for herds (Morinaga et al., 2003;Dagvadorj et al., 2010). The trampling of plants by passing livestockmigrating to better pasture or too high a grazing pressure leads to ahoof dzud, and a warm spell after heavy snowfall resulting in an icycrust cover on short grass blocking livestock grazing causes an iron dzud(Batjargal et al., 2001; Marin, 2008). Livestock have been the mainstayof Mongolian agriculture and the basis of its economy and culture formillennia (Mearns, 2004; Goodland et al., 2009). This sector is likely tocontinue to be the single most important sector of the economy in termsof employment (Mearns, 2004; Goodland et al., 2009).In the last decades, dzuds occurred in 1944-1945, 1954-1955, 1956-1957,1967-1968, 1976-1977, 1986-1987, 1993-1994, and 1996-1997, withfurther dzuds discussed below (Morinaga et al., 2003; Sternberg, 2010).The dzud of 1944-1945 was a record for the 20th century with mortalityof one-third of Mongolia’s total livestock (Batjargal et al., 2001). The2009-2010 dzud caused similarly high animal mortality (NSO, 2011). Thelarge losses of animals in dzud events demonstrates that Mongolia as awhole has low capacity to combat natural disaster (Batjargal et al.,2001). These potential losses are considered to be beyond the financialcapacity of the government and the domestic insurance market(Goodland et al., 2009).9.2.4.3. Description of Events –Dzud of 1999-2002 and of 2009-2010Dzud disasters occurred in 1999-2002 and 2009-2010, causing social andeconomic impacts. These disasters occurred as a result of environmentaland human-induced factors. The environmental factors included droughtresulting in very limited pasture grass and hay with additional damageto pasture by rodents and insects (Batjargal et al., 2001; Begzsuren et al.,2004; Saizen et al., 2010). Human factors included budgetary issues forpreparedness in both government and households, inadequate pasturemanagement and coordination, and lack of experience of new and/oryoung herders (Batjargal et al., 2001). Climatic factors contributing toboth dzuds were summer drought followed by extreme cold and snowfallin winter. However the autumn of 1999-2000 brought heavy snowfalland unusual warmth with ice cover, while the winter and spring of2009-2010 also brought windstorms. Summer drought was a moresignificant contributor to the 1999-2000 dzud (Batjargal et al., 2001),while winter cold was more extreme in the 2009-2010 dzud.9.2.4.3.1. Dzud of 1999-2002The dzud began with summer drought followed by heavy snowfall andunusual warmth with ice cover in the autumn and extreme cold andsnowfall in the winter. The sequence of events was as follows (Batjargalet al., 2001):• Drought: In the summer of 1999, 70% of the country suffereddrought. Air temperature reached 41 to 43°C, exceeding its highestvalue recorded at meteorological stations since the 1960s. Thecondition persisted for a month and grasslands dried up. As aresult, animals were unfit for the winter, with insufficient haymakingfor winter preparedness.500