IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 9Case Studiesthat 1.3 million people have been affected by drought with up to800,000 (75,641 households) being severely affected (FAO, 2009; UN,2009). Of those severely affected, around 20% (160,000 people) areconsidered to be highly vulnerable, including female-headed households,pregnant women, children 14 and under, those with illness, the elderly,and the disabled (UN, 2009).The United Nations (UN) estimates that a large number of the severelyaffected population are living below the poverty line (US$ 1/person/day)(UN, 2009). When combined with an increase in the price of food and basicresources, this reduced income has resulted in negative consequencesfor whole households (FAO, 2009). Many cannot afford basic supplies orfood, which has led to a reduction in their food intake, the selling of assets,a rise in the rate of borrowing money, the degradation of land, urbanmigration, and children leaving school (FAO, 2009; UN, 2009; Solh, 2010).The UN assessment mission stated that the reasons for removing childrenfrom school included financial hardship, increased costs of transport,migration to cities, and the requirement for children to work to earnextra income for families (UN, 2009). Consequently, due to poor foodconsumption, the rates of malnutrition have risen between 2007 and 2008,with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimating a doublingof malnutrition cases among pregnant women and children under five(FAO, 2008). Due to inadequate consumption of micro- and macronutrientsin the most-affected households, it has been estimated that the averagediet contains less than 15% of the recommended daily fat intake and50% of the advised energy and protein requirements (UN, 2009).One of the most visible effects of the drought was the large migration ofbetween 40,000 and 60,000 families from the affected areas (UN, 2009;Solh, 2010; Sowers and Weinthal, 2010). In June 2009, it was estimatedthat 36,000 households had migrated from the Al-Hasakah Governorate(200,000-300,000 persons) to the urban centers of Damascus, Dara’a,Hama, and Aleppo (UN, 2009; Solh, 2010). Temporary settlements andcamps were required, creating further strains on resources and publicservices, that had already been attempting to support approximately1 million Iraqi refugees (UN, 2009; Solh, 2010). In addition, migrationleads to worse health, educational, and social indicators among themigrant population (IOM, 2008; Solh, 2010).Deficits in water resources exceeding 3.5 billion cubic meters have arisenin recent years due to growing water demands and drought (FAO andNAPC, 2010; SARPMETT, 2010). Interventions by a project furtherupstream to control the flow of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have beeninitiated and these have had a significant impact on water variabilitydownstream in Iraq and Syria, which, added to the severe drought, havecaused these rivers to flow at well-below normal levels (USDA, 2008a;Daoudy, 2009; Sowers et al., 2011).9.2.3.4. InterventionsThe UN Syria Drought Response Plan was published in 2009. It wasdesigned to address the emergency needs of, and to prevent further impacton, the 300,000 people most affected by protracted drought (FAO,2009). The Response Plan identified as its strategic priorities the rapidprovision of humanitarian assistance, the strengthening of resilience tofuture drought and climate change, and assisting in the return processand ensuring socioeconomic stability among the worst-affected groups(UN, 2009). Syria also welcomed international assistance provided tothe drought-affected population through multilateral channels (Solh,2010). Various loans to those affected, including farmers and womenentrepreneurs, were provided (UN, 2009).9.2.3.5. Outcomes/ConsequencesA combination of actions including food and agriculture assistance,supplemented by water and health interventions, and measures aimedat increasing drought resilience, were identified as required to allowaffected populations to remain in their villages and restart agriculturalproduction (UN, 2009). Ongoing interventions with the aim of reducingvulnerability and increasing resilience to drought were summarized bythe UN Syrian Drought Response Plan (UN, 2009) and FAO (FAO, 2009).These interventions were aimed at providing support through four mainapproaches: (1) the rapid distribution of wheat, barley, and legume seedsto 18,000 households in the affected areas, potentially assisting 144,000people; (2) sustaining the remaining asset base of the approximately20,000 herders by providing animal feed and limited sheep restockingto approximately 1,000 herders; (3) the development of a drought earlywarning system to facilitate the government taking early actions beforeserious and significant losses occur and to develop this to ensuresustainability; and (4) building capability to implement the nationaldrought strategy by developing and addressing all stages of the disastermanagement cycle (FAO, 2009). Conservation agriculture (which has beendefined as no-tillage, direct drilling/seeding, and drilling/seeding througha vegetative cover) is considered to be a way forward for sustainableland use (Stewart et al., 2008; Lalani 2011). However, how to take thisforward has caused considerable debate (Stewart et al., 2008).9.2.3.6. Lessons IdentifiedThe need for the UN Syrian Drought Response Plan was identified andhas facilitated the understanding of the work programs and links to theinterventions listed in Case Study 9.2.3.4 (UN, 2009). Other responsestrategies that have been considered include:• Development of capacities to identify, assess, and monitor droughtrisks through national and local multi-hazard risk assessment;building systems to monitor, archive, and disseminate data (Lalani,2011), taking into account decentralization of resources, communityparticipation, and regional early warning systems and networks(UNISDR, 2011a).• Integrating activities in the national strategy for CCA and DRR,including drought risk loss insurance; improved water use efficiency;adopting and adapting existing water harvesting techniques;integrating use of surface and groundwater; upgrading irrigation499